Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?) (advance, computers, format)

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by skoro

The Singularity is a fascinating concept, but I see it much further in the future than 31 years. This is based on limitations in current computer technology (lithography) and reluctance in many industrialized nations to spend resources on the research needed to approach that point. I won't even get into the resistance that will erupt from religious quarters that seem to view almost all progress as threatening.

From what I have read and seen as long as information technology keeps advancing exponentially then we will reach the singularity between 2030 and 2045. If that stops, for whatever reason, then we would not reach the singularity in our lifetimes.

[skoro]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

From what I have read and seen as long as information technology keeps advancing exponentially then we will reach the singularity between 2030 and 2045. If that stops, for whatever reason, then we would not reach the singularity in our lifetimes.

To my knowledge, there hasn't been a breakthrough allowing ICs to be built much more densely than current production.

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by NightBazaar

Thank you for agreeing.

I think you and I agree more then we disagree on this topic. I will discuss the things we do disagree on though.

Originally Posted by NightBazaar

That's a presumptuous view. There are numerous events that could potentially happen to bring eveything to a complete and utter halt, including the extinction of all life on the planet. Odds vary with among different scenarios. Some may be far off in the distant future, some could happen at any time. No one can say any of these events will happen, but rather that the potential exists. Destroying ourselves is certainly one possibility, but there are even more possible extinction events that are not caused by people that could potentially occur but we have no way of avoid or defend against.

While we do continue to progress, if the entire planet were to be wiped out, it would mean nothing in the overall picture of the universe. We're like tiny microbes that scurry around on the thin skin of the planet, who feel we can stand like towers of power destined to conquer death, the future and the entire universe by shouting out at the sky, "I AM HUMAN! HEAR ME ROAR!" Unfortunately, it's less than a squeek and the sky doesn't hear us.

Here's a link to Exit Mundi, which is a collection of possible end-of-the-world scenarios. Some are plausible, even likely, some border silliness, but none can be 100% conclusively ruled out as absolutely impossible. It's worth a look to put things into perspective in a humorous way.
EXIT MUNDI, a collection of end of world scenarios

Fine I agree that if the planet gets destroyed we will not reach the singularity. Now I just don't see that happening and even when I have watched shows on them they say the odds of it happening in the next 20 years is near 0.

Originally Posted by NightBazaar

What you have just described is a FAITH that things will be thus and so in the future. It's all very easy to project things as long as they're are off in the future and can't be conclusively proven at the present time one way or the other. Might as well just flip a coin. We all believe various things. It's a part of being human. After all, we aren't machines. The problem with FAITH (belief), which is often little more than just a hunch, is that it's not always reliable and is subject to change. It's also a good idea to not put so much FAITH (belief) into what one person thinks or has to say without getting too hung up on the buzz words.

I have a belief I just don't talk about it here as this is not the right thread. That being said my beveling in the technological singularity is all about science and has nothing to do with faith. I spent hours and hours studying it and I read the arguments for and against before I made up my mind. Its not l like my faith where I have to take a leap of faith to believe in what I do.

Originally Posted by NightBazaar

I was being satirical about bots or computers the size of electrons. The bots i posted about are extremely tiny, but were not as small as a blood cell. Certain atoms (larger ones) can be manipulated in terms of positioning them, but there's not going to be any mechanical computers or bots the size of an electron (or an atom) as that's at a scale that's much too small. I would suggest you look up the subject of quantum particles. Here's a reading assignment link to give you a tiny hint of an idea as to just how small electrons are.
Structure and radius of electron

And here's a humorous video about how nanotechnology could go terribly wrong. All it would take is one stupid idiot to change the course of everything.


Be Amazing! - YouTube

You kind of made my point. We have very small computers and have even began implanting them in the brain and other parts of the body. Do you really think its going to stop here? Its not.

Originally Posted by NightBazaar

Whoa there! You just said it's beyond your understanding. What you're saying here is like looking at a single splotch of paint on a canvas without seeing anything else, and saying you know what the painting is.


Here we are back again. The details are well beyond your understanding at this time. Do you see how you're flip-flopping back and forth with this?

I know it sounds like a contradictory but I don't think it is. I am smart enough to understand the principal behind the idea of computers the size of blood cells and the impact it will have on our bodies but since I have not done the research myself I can't tell you how they would actually work down to how they will move. In other words I understand the big picture and the impact it will have on society but not the detailed picture, at least enough to really explain it to someone.

Originally Posted by NightBazaar

What's stopping you from getting a head start on things now? When in the future would you expect to have them (I assume you mean blood cell sized computers) and use them to augment your intelligence? 2030 to 2045? Sooner? Later?

We do not have the technology. From what I have read it will happen by 2030 (2025-2030 but I go with the conservative date here).

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by skoro

To my knowledge, there hasn't been a breakthrough allowing ICs to be built much more densely than current production.

I missed your post. I have seen reports and tv shows talking about this from 2004. This is a scientific article on it in 2010. From what I have seen it will be ready sometime between 2015 and 2020 well before the integrated circuit runs out of steam.

BTW this is not new as we have gone though a few paradigms including the vacuum tube and transistor. Every time they ran out of steam it was the end of that paradigm but computers continued advancing exponentially we just moved to the next paradigm.

They are working on the next paradigm right now. 3D self organizing molecular structures:

M.I.T. Researchers Create Self-assembling Molecular Computer Chips.

March 16, 2010 -- The features on computer chips are getting so small that soon the process used to make them, which has hardly changed in the last 50 years, won’t work anymore. One of the alternatives that academic researchers have been exploring is to create tiny circuits using molecules that automatically arrange themselves into useful patterns. In a paper that appeared Monday in Nature Nanotechnology, MIT researchers have taken an important step toward making that approach practical.

The link: EDACafe - googletag.pubads().definePassback('/4250/MCADCafe/EDACafe', [300, 250]).display();

[plwhit]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

I missed your post. I have seen reports and tv shows talking about this from 2004. This is a scientific article on it in 2010. From what I have seen it will be ready sometime between 2015 and 2020 well before the integrated circuit runs out of steam.

BTW this is not new as we have gone though a few paradigms including the vacuum tube and transistor. Every time they ran out of steam it was the end of that paradigm but computers continued advancing exponentially we just moved to the next paradigm.

They are working on the next paradigm right now. 3D self organizing molecular structures:

M.I.T. Researchers Create Self-assembling Molecular Computer Chips.

March 16, 2010 -- The features on computer chips are getting so small that soon the process used to make them, which has hardly changed in the last 50 years, won’t work anymore. One of the alternatives that academic researchers have been exploring is to create tiny circuits using molecules that automatically arrange themselves into useful patterns. In a paper that appeared Monday in Nature Nanotechnology, MIT researchers have taken an important step toward making that approach practical.

The link: EDACafe - googletag.pubads().definePassback('/4250/MCADCafe/EDACafe', [300, 250]).display();

All you continually say is:

A. but computers continued advancing exponentially

B. Constantly post about things that *MIGHT* or *COULD POSSIBLY* occur

You constantly overlook the simple things...

~ lawyers

~ copyright laws

~ governments

I guess this phrase is unknown in your vocabulary:

Diminishing Returns

diminishing returns (economics) -- Encyclopedia Britannica

And one other thing:

Emulation, Simulation, and the Human Brain

http://timothyblee.com/2011/01/13/em...e-human-brain/

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by plwhit

All you continually say is:

A. but computers continued advancing exponentially

B. Constantly post about things that *MIGHT* or *COULD POSSIBLY* occur

You constantly overlook the simple things...

~ lawyers

~ copyright laws

~ governments

I guess this phrase is unknown in your vocabulary:

Diminishing Returns

diminishing returns (economics) -- Encyclopedia Britannica

That is a law for economics not information technology.

That being said I do admit that if computers stop advancing exponentially we will not hit the singularity in my lifetime. Now I don't see that happening and the mathematical models back me up.

Originally Posted by plwhit

And one other thing:

Emulation, Simulation, and the Human Brain

Emulation, Simulation, and the Human Brain | Bottom-up

This author does not understand the singularity as is not by default about emulating human minds. Its simply a moment in time when computers merge with humans enough to change life as we know it.

That being said there is a lot of research being done on the brain and the goal of many scientists is to reverse engineer the brain. Here are just a few examples that I know of:

http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/20...e-human-brain/

http://www.humanconnectomeproject.org/

These are just 3 projects there are many more including what Google is doing and many more I do not know of.

[plwhit]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

That is a law for economics not information technology.

I don't know what world you live on but economics drives *EVERYTHING*

That being said I do admit that if computers stop advancing exponentially we will not hit the singularity in my lifetime. Now I don't see that happening and the mathematical models back me up.

Ahhh yes, the "mathematical models" now we just know that they have never been wrong in the past, right?

This author does not understand the singularity as is not by default about emulating human minds. Its simply a moment in time when computers merge with humans enough to change life as we know it.

You mean that the author does not understand your concepts which we know are correct...

That being said there is a lot of research being done on the brain and the goal of many scientists is to reverse engineer the brain. Here are just a few examples that I know of:

Bluebrain | EPFL

Obama Hopes Mapping Project Reveals Brain’s Mysteries |

Human Connectome Project*|*Mapping the human brain connectivity

These are just 3 projects there are many more including what Google is doing and many more I do not know of.

There have been projects going to understand the human mind for many many decades, does this singularity thingie add something new to the mix? (outside of the "maybe's" "could happen" "might occurs")?

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by plwhit

I don't know what world you live on but economics drives *EVERYTHING*

Not everything. For example no economy in the world has been going exponentially for 100 plus years. Information technology has been advancing exponentially for over 100 plus years. Even during the great depression and the current recession we just got out of computers still advanced at the same exponintial rate.

Originally Posted by plwhit

Ahhh yes, the "mathematical models" now we just know that they have never been wrong in the past, right?

When it comes to information technology it has never been wrong when it comes to other things yes they have been wrong. That is why I make it clear that forecasting the future is only applicable to information technology and not what life will be like or technologies that are not a from of information technology.

Originally Posted by plwhit

You mean that the author does not understand your concepts.

What I mean is the author does not understand the concepts of the singularity to decide if its right or wrong.

Originally Posted by plwhit

There have been projects going to understand the human mind for many many decades, does this singularity thingie add something new to the mix? (outside of the "maybe's" "could happen" "might occurs")?

Not to the detailed level they are doing them now the technology did not exist so the goals were different. That being said the singularity is just when computers merge with humans so technically that could happen before these projects are completed but that is unlikely as the projects should be completed by 2019-2023 and the singularity will not be till 2030.

[plwhit]

Not everyone has faith in this singularity....

When will the technological singularity occur?

f real-world science is used instead of wishful thinking, then a technological singularity will never occur. The technological singularity is a hypothetical event where advances in technology become essentially infinite. If the power of technology doubles every two years, then in two years it will be twice as powerful as today, in four years it will be four times as powerful, then 8, 16, 32, 64, etc. This exponential growth supposedly means that the power of technology will eventually become effectively infinite. While the concept of infinite technological power is attractive and makes for some fun science fiction, it is not very scientifically sound. There are four basic problems with reaching a technological singularity:
Technology is not currently doubling every two years
Even if technology were doubling every two years, there is no guarantee this trend will continue
Science places external limits on technology
Technological advances are driven by humans and the human intelligence has limits.

exponential growth | Science Questions with Surprising Answers

[plwhit]

Whoopsies..... There doesn't seem to be this "exponential growth" that some people keep on blathering about....

If considered a valid indicator of technological growth, the number of patents per year per million people shows that technological growth is actually declining, not exponentially exploding. Data from Jonathan Huebner.

exponential growth | Science Questions with Surprising Answers