Exponential (advance, vehicle, format, technologic)
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I do not start threads all that often in here but I decided to this morning on this word:
Exponential
This is why humans are where we are today and why we are progressing at such a rate that we advance faster then most people, even scientists, think we will. Why is it that even today most people underestimate the impacts of exponential growth and why when you talk about it everyone agrees that we have progressed exponentially but when you talk about the future say oh it won't continue? I find this fascinating and have a hard time explaining it and the implications to people, at least with out them getting mad or looking at me like I am weird.
Humans advance at a exponential rate especially information technology. This is a proven fact yet even scientists do not get it when they look at the future. That is what I am referring to.
I mean it as it applies to technology. I talk to people about how technology has advanced in the past and everyone agrees with how fast it has and how the world has changed. Then when I apply the same principles using exponential as the reason they laugh or get mad at me. So I just don't understand why people can't grasp the concept of exponential advancement.
I think that the reason that people doubt future exponential growth is that all exponential growth has to eventually saturate when it runs in to physical limitations. Moore's law is an example of exponential growth that will begin to slow (as transistors can't be smaller than atoms); similarly technological progress on Earth will likely have to slow at some point.
That doesn't mean that it has to slow in the near- or medium- term, though. I think one of the reasons people are hesitant to predict continued exponential growth is that they don't know what that growth will look like, exactly, so it is difficult to picture it and thus easy to discount it.
I think that the reason that people doubt future exponential growth is that all exponential growth has to eventually saturate when it runs in to physical limitations. Moore's law is an example of exponential growth that will begin to slow (as transistors can't be smaller than atoms); similarly technological progress on Earth will likely have to slow at some point.
That doesn't mean that it has to slow in the near- or medium- term, though. I think one of the reasons people are hesitant to predict continued exponential growth is that they don't know what that growth will look like, exactly, so it is difficult to picture it and thus easy to discount it.
There's an out in that statement...
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