9.0 Earthquake (Seattle, Port Townsend, Pacific: 2015, brokers, how much)

[Woof]

I suppose it would be best to choose an apartment up on the high ground in case of tsunami - though I really don't know how big a danger that is in a Sound rather than open to the ocean. Modern buildings might be better if they're up to code, but it's a crap-shoot with earthquakes - no telling what will get damaged.

Originally Posted by Cinema Cat

Old brick buildings don't survive quakes as well as some other types. I live in Santa Monica, CA, and was here in 1994 for the 6.7 quake. Older brick buildings were more likely to collapse. So if you're house or apartment hunting, it's something to consider.

I was there for the Seattle one in the early 90s. I was in a very old brick building up on the fourth floor ...... I never thought that such a rigid structure could shake like a big block of jello. I remember some guy screaming. No visible damage though.

[peequi]

Are humans able to relatively predict earthquakes? anyone know? How close can they get to a very accurate forecast?

Originally Posted by 509

Here is the wilkipedia article on the 9.2 earthquake in Anchorage Alaska that occurred in 1964.

1964 Alaska earthquake - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You really should go up and look at some of the damage that is still visible today.

Anyway, the same magnitude earthquake in the Puget Sound region would probably kill in the neighborhood of 12,000 people based on the death/population ratio. I suspect that the death rate would be slightly higher in Seattle than Anchorage in 1964.

So lets round up the numbers to 20,000 people. That is really a small number given a population level of 4.1 million in the Puget Sound region.

You brought up the issue of post-earthquake. THAT I would be very concerned about. City of Seattle cannot even cope with a snowfall let alone a major natural disaster. It is a minimum of THREE days before ANY emergency services can be provided in a major disaster. That is what FEMA recommends for MINIMUM preparation.

My guess is in Seattle you should be prepared for at least TWO weeks before food, water and other basic services can be provided to a population of 4.1 million. Even at that it will be a nightmare.

The other issue is rebuilding since insurance do not cover earthquakes unless specifically added and it is expensive.

I would, however, look at getting a earthquake safe house. That might take some research to find out how to determine whether the house will fall down or not!!!

An eruption of Glacier Peak or Mt. Rainier would probably have a greater impact on the Puget Sound area.

Probability is that it will not happen in your lifetime. So are you feeling LUCKY??

I feel lucky lol! I agree with the guy quoted above, Post earthquake is what you should worry about. Yeah you might die in the earthquake, you really can't do much about that because you don't know when it will happen. But you can at least prepare for after the earthquake. Be ready, government might not be there because they will be scared and confused as well, and they have families to protect.

Regarding Katrina, there are some people who believe the government purposely didn't move quickly, maybe they hate blacks, they wanted to test the population, they wanted an excuse for more money, etc. I personally think it was because the system is so complicated just to freaking help citizens in this country that there was too much paperwork and red tape to go thru. Government are made up of American citizens and last time I checked, we are freaking stupid, fat and lazy. Earthquake maybe one of the last things to worry about lol.

Originally Posted by zugor

Here's a link to an interesting book about the possibility of a 9.0

Amazon.com: Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest eBook: Sandi Doughton: Books

Your library may very well have it.

Looks cool, thanks, I might buy it for kindle.

[TrueTimbers]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

If a quake that big, or close to it, hits Seattle, wouldn't it affect the Olympic Peninsula as well? Port Townsend, etc.? Because it would be the result of the Juan de Fuca plate hitting the mainland plate, right? I wonder if there's any record of the effects on the Peninsula of earthquakes centered near Seattle.

The subduction zone is off shore, so technically port Townsend is closer to the fault.

The fault is 600 miles long, and it last let loose in 1700. The tsunami was documented in Japan.

The fault ruptures on average between 300 and 700 years. It has been 300, so anytime.

I doubt much of old brick Port Townsend would be left standing Ruth.. I sure would not want to hang around Chinese Gardens or Kah Tai lagoon or other low spots Downtown.

Sure their are many other faults. But not many subduction zone faults capable of megathrust earthquakes

Hey TPS.. I would not be too placated by beenig from California. The San Andreas is child's play. A megathrust will be like the 2004 Indian ocean quake (230000dead) or like well prepared 2011 Japan quake or worse.

It shall be epic when it goes.

[Woof]

As for preps, store up lots of water (2 gallons per day per person), non-perishable foods that don't need cooking, like cans, MREs, and trail mix. Sleeping bag rated down to 25f. Flashlight. Radio. Portable battery power station thingy to recharge your cell phone and laptop, provide light, etc.

Some bleach to keep your sh*t from smelling bad.

Keep a BOB (bug-out backpack) at work with smaller, lighter food sources and water.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by TrueTimbers

The subduction zone is off shore, so technically port Townsend is closer to the fault.

The fault is 600 miles long, and it last let loose in 1700. The tsunami was documented in Japan.

The fault ruptures on average between 300 and 700 years. It has been 300, so anytime.

I doubt much of old brick Port Townsend would be left standing Ruth.. I sure would not want to hang around Chinese Gardens or Kah Tai lagoon or other low spots Downtown.

Sure their are many other faults. But not many subduction zone faults capable of megathrust earthquakes

This is what I was thinking. Thanks for the informed post. A good deal of downtown PT would be toast. The residential areas might do better, depending. Some of the old Victorians have seismic retrofitting, though 9.0 is pretty big. I'm wondering if the shoreline would be affected. Would it be better to live on higher ground?

[TrueTimbers]

I don't know the tsunami record this far in from the ocean.

I suppose it does not hurt to be up a 100 or 200 feet. (I am..)
But still I would not let that dictate my property choice.

Seriously, I worry more about all the power hungry war mongers. Odds of Indian island getting nuked, and.the flash blinding us seems more likely with all the hate out in the world..

[rockyinyourradio]

In the past, I've had some crazy fears of earthquakes. Back in the mid 90's, I attended a meteorology symposium in San Francisco. About a week before, I had one of those vivid, life like nightmares of being in a catastrophic quake while I was driving across the Golden Gate Bridge. Cars were bouncing off the bridge into the bay as the bridge crumbled all around me. I literally woke up, sitting up and in a cold sweat. So how did I confront that fear?

The very day I arrived in San Francisco, I drove across the Golden Gate and back again. I was not going to let my fear keep me from enjoying that place and had no worries since then. I have a profound love for Seattle and the Pacific Northwest. Ultimately, I would love to relocate out there some day but in reality, that likely won't happen as most of my close family is here in Oklahoma. I sure hope to visit as much as possible (this coming fall especially) and even though I know the possibility is there (and a remote one at that) of a significant quake while I'm there, that won't be something that is always on my mind.

Realistically.. a 9.0 quake or for that matter even a 7.0 is very unlikely in the near future, but eventually I know one like that will occur. As was brought up earlier, the main fault lines run well off shore in the Pacific. That is where the major quakes are most likely to occur and our chief threat from that is the tsunami that may result.
Now there are many fault lines that run through the greater SeaTac region and even a couple right through downtown Seattle. Who knows precisely what risk they have of rupturing, but most believe from what I read, any quake that occurs would be under a 6.0.

So don't let these fears steal your dreams. At the same time though, it's always wise to be prepared. There are scores of websites on how to prepare in case a quake happens.

Lastly, there is a website I follow that talks about potential earthquake activity and actually encompasses all things earth and sun related. A video is uploaded daily and is quite informative but speculative. The link is below:

Suspicious0bservers - Climate Change | Space Weather | Sun Activity

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by TrueTimbers

Seriously, I worry more about all the power hungry war mongers. Odds of Indian island getting nuked, and.the flash blinding us seems more likely with all the hate out in the world..

Yup. Those war games are "only" for a year, though. It's not a permanent thing. Hopefully.

[west seattle gal]

Sometimes I feel wracked with fear about the overdue big one, and often I think about moving. I worry because my kids are small.

[peequi]

Originally Posted by west seattle gal

Sometimes I feel wracked with fear about the overdue big one, and often I think about moving. I worry because my kids are small.

First of all, it is good to worry because it is coming and it will be big and potentially deadly. But running away is not a good idea, where will you move to? Think about the natural disasters the new location has.

Just be prepared and teach your kids as much as possible. The earthquake will probably be big but I think I would rather have to live thru a big earthquake once or maybe twice than deal with snowstorms, hurricanes, tornados every year.

It will be fine, very few will die. The aftermath will be the hard part but luckily you can prepare for it.