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There aren't many Airport Cities because they don't get built in an area that will become the center of a Metropolitan area of 8 million people.
In actuality, the man who wrote tge article about future Airport Cities only included DFW and an airport in Washington DC. One can easily mistaken Las Colinas as the employment center of that area. That is a mistake. It is actually DFW airport. The number of top 500 corporations around DFW airport is almost equal to that of Dallas when American is taken into account based south of the airport.
Banking on? I think Metro Houston is banking on the Houston area to grow taller and thicker. When I drove through Toronto when a truck driver, the variety of its rail system was fascinating! North Texas today is developing an impressive amount of rail. Dart doesn't have to do everything here on out. For example, Collin County (McKinney) could decide to build a rail connecting between itself, Frisco, Planoand connecting up to the Silver Line in Addison. That line could extend further south to the Galleria Dallas (not to be confused with the Houston Galleria).
This is the first I've heard of an article about "airport cities". Please share.
As I said, their own projections (which are probably on the optimistic side) show the addition of D2 would lead to only very marginal additional riders on the system.
Plus, it seems there are much more economical ways to accomplish the goal. I of course don't have access to the deep passenger traffic study to know for sure. But is it really necessary for all the lines to have single-car through service from one end to the other, in the exact way the lines are current designated? Couldn't they resolve the congestion, by having just two of the lines cross all the way over.... or maybe none of them with a really good shuttle service (maybe more of an airport style train that goes between Pearl/Arts District and West End or Union Station every three minutes?
OMG! It's even worse than I thought. I looked up their projections in the DEIS. They actually project a REDUCTION in Light Rail System ridership and DART System total ridership as a result of D2! I kid you not. Further update: I found the FEIS/ROD. Sadly, the ridership projections stayed the same.
2045 Daily Regional System Ridership for No-Build and Build Alternative:
Total DART System -
No-Build: 454,600
Build: 451,200
Local Bus - No-Build: 257,200
Build: 257,000
Express Bus-No-Build: 7,400
Build: 7,300
Streetcar - No-Build: 4,600
Build: 4,500
Light Rail - No-Build: 147,300
Build: 143,900
Regional Rail-No-Build: 38,200
Build: 38,500
How can spending Billions of Dollars on a project that is projected to reduce system ridership be anything other than a vanity project?
By the way, I mentioned above how transit agencies tend to wildly inflate ridership projections (for a great example take a look at Fort Worth's TexRail projections and ridership). Note the 2045 ridership projection of a little over 450,000 average weekday. Pre-COVID, DART was 206,000. Props to anyone who can say with a straight face they expect DART ridership to more than double in the next 22 years, with or without D2 in place (and of course per their own projections, it's slightly likelier without D2).
I'll have to look more into the assumptions they used in the EIS but that is wild. I never thought D2 would lead to huge increases in ridership, but I would expect that people who found the system more convenient with shorter headways would lead to some moderate increase. Craziness.
Even the Silver Line has a better cost/benefit than D2, if that's the case.
This is the first I've heard of an article about "airport cities". Please share.
Crystal City in Arlington, Virginia was one of the "Airport Cities" mentioned in the article with DFW being the other. DFW airport has matured into what he predicted. Las Colinas and West Lake have become major financial centers. New development Cypress Waters, the headquarters for Seven Eleven, popped out of the ground pretty quick.
As I said, their own projections (which are probably on the optimistic side) show the addition of D2 would lead to only very marginal additional riders on the system.
Plus, it seems there are much more economical ways to accomplish the goal. I of course don't have access to the deep passenger traffic study to know for sure. But is it really necessary for all the lines to have single-car through service from one end to the other, in the exact way the lines are current designated? Couldn't they resolve the congestion, by having just two of the lines cross all the way over.... or maybe none of them with a really good shuttle service (maybe more of an airport style train that goes between Pearl/Arts District and West End or Union Station every three minutes?
OMG! It's even worse than I thought. I looked up their projections in the DEIS. They actually project a REDUCTION in Light Rail System ridership and DART System total ridership as a result of D2! I kid you not. Further update: I found the FEIS/ROD. Sadly, the ridership projections stayed the same.
2045 Daily Regional System Ridership for No-Build and Build D2 Alternative:
Total DART System -
No-Build: 454,600
Build: 451,200
Local Bus - No-Build: 257,200
Build: 257,000
Express Bus-No-Build: 7,400
Build: 7,300
Streetcar - No-Build: 4,600
Build: 4,500
Light Rail - No-Build: 147,300
Build: 143,900
Regional Rail-No-Build: 38,200
Build: 38,500
How can spending Billions of Dollars on a project that is projected to reduce system ridership be anything other than a vanity project?
By the way, I mentioned above how transit agencies tend to wildly inflate ridership projections (for a great example take a look at Fort Worth's TexRail projections and ridership). Note the 2045 ridership projection of a little over 450,000 average weekday.
In FY 2016, DART system ridership was 233,780.
FY 2018, it had dropped to 206,560.
FY 2021: 113,540
FY 2022: 134,810
Props to anyone who can say with a straight face they expect DART ridership to more than double (compared to FY 2016; more than triple their most recent FY ridership) in the next 22 years, with or without D2 in place (and of course per their own projections, it's slightly likelier without D2). Double props to anyone who can say it with a straight face and back it up with logic.
The more track you add....The more your ridership goes down.....Automatically.....That's why a small drop was expected with the addition of D2.....It's a " mileage of tract" gauge system.....And the small increases are small because D2 only creates a small increase of additional coverage....Way smaller than the additional coverage would be in a trainless area, district or neighborhood....
And the D2 line is being added along the system's MAIN bottleneck with the MOST ridership....It's where ALL of the lines meet......So relief for that main artery is THE reason for D2 in the first place.
That's why Houston METRO's numbers look waaaaay better than they actually are. If they opened a new 15-20 mile line in Houston tomorrow the ridership will plummet!! But while on paper the plummet in ridership looks bad .....it's really a good situation...You added COVERAGE to your system.
A similar situation would be when you build your credit up to get that House and you get it!!!HOORAY!!!!!......In your heart, you feel rewarded for the achievement and are proud of yourself for being disciplined to build it high enough to get the house....You are living the American Dream!!!
......But that same DREAM is what reprimanded and lowered your credit score AGAIN for getting the house.....AND car for that matter.......But we write that off as "Expected Protocol" and it doesn't affect our happiness.
Ridership will FOREVER fluctuate......That's why I can never judge ANY systems success by that ONLY..........
COVERAGE...and lots of it is what makes a system worth its money....It's the only non-changeable stationary thing to go by. .......its like if a woman is growing her REAL hair......The only success marker would be if it grows...The longer it gets..the more successful the attempt to grow it becomes.
More COVERAGE of her shoulders is SUCCESS!!!
Last edited by dallasboi; 06-05-2023 at 07:34 PM..
If they opened a new 15-20 mile line in Houston tomorrow the ridership will plummet!!
Not necessarily true. The university line in Houston would throw the ridership through the roof.
Metro pulled a DART with its 1st line extension and it's 2nd and 3rd lines. Basically they assumed an "if you build it, they will come" mentality instead of continuing with what worked: connecting dense corridors.
The east side of the city is more sparse and building 2 new lines to the east did result in a plummet in ridership per mile, but rail to the southwest would have sent ridership #s soaring.
Westheimer has changed a lot the last 20 years, I know the line was meant for Richmond, but I can imagine how much quicker Westheimer would have developed if they could have made it work.
The more track you add....The more your ridership goes down.....Automatically.....That's why a small drop was expected with the addition of D2.....It's a " mileage of tract" gauge system.....And the small increases are small because D2 only creates a small increase of additional coverage....Way smaller than the additional coverage would be in a trainless area, district or neighborhood....
And the D2 line is being added along the system's MAIN bottleneck with the MOST ridership....It's where ALL of the lines meet......So relief for that main artery is THE reason for D2 in the first place.
That's why Houston METRO's numbers look waaaaay better than they actually are. If they opened a new 15-20 mile line in Houston tomorrow the ridership will plummet!! But while on paper the plummet in ridership looks bad .....it's really a good situation...You added COVERAGE to your system.
A similar situation would be when you build your credit up to get that House and you get it!!!HOORAY!!!!!......In your heart, you feel rewarded for the achievement and are proud of yourself for being disciplined to build it high enough to get the house....You are living the American Dream!!!
......But that same DREAM is what lowered your credit score AGAIN for getting the house.....AND car for that matter.
Those ridership numbers are systemwide. By definition, the addition of a line needs to increase ridership numbers. If systemwide ridership declines, adding a new line is a waste of money.
Exhibit A for - never trust your money with someone who bears no consequences for mismanaging it.
So, when can we expect your check for the $2B (more like $5B when all is said and done) it will cost to build this new line?
The more track you add....The more your ridership goes down.....Automatically.....That's why a small drop was expected with the addition of D2.....It's a " mileage of tract" gauge system.....And the small increases are small because D2 only creates a small increase of additional coverage....Way smaller than the additional coverage would be in a trainless area, district or neighborhood....
And the D2 line is being added along the system's MAIN bottleneck with the MOST ridership....It's where ALL of the lines meet......So relief for that main artery is THE reason for D2 in the first place.
That's why Houston METRO's numbers look waaaaay better than they actually are. If they opened a new 15-20 mile line in Houston tomorrow the ridership will plummet!! But while on paper the plummet in ridership looks bad .....it's really a good situation...You added COVERAGE to your system.
A similar situation would be when you build your credit up to get that House and you get it!!!HOORAY!!!!!......In your heart, you feel rewarded for the achievement and are proud of yourself for being disciplined to build it high enough to get the house....You are living the American Dream!!!
......But that same DREAM is what reprimanded and lowered your credit score AGAIN for getting the house.....AND car for that matter.......But we write that off as "Expected Protocol" and it doesn't affect our happiness.
Ridership will FOREVER fluctuate......That's why I can never judge ANY systems success by that ONLY..........
COVERAGE...and lots of it is what makes a system worth its money....It's the only non-changeable stationary thing to go by. .......its like if a woman is growing her REAL hair......The only success marker would be if it grows...The longer it gets..the more successful the attempt to grow it becomes.
More COVERAGE of her shoulders is SUCCESS!!!
The way you're defending this craziness is borderline sad.
I get that you want your train to succeed, but be realistic...JEEEZ.
If you can't see that this is a CLASSIC example of Dallas' vanity, then sadly you're ONE of the vain.
It's being built SOLEY for bragging rights...nothing more, nothing less.
But hey...I guess it's worth it as long as Dallasites can say that they have the best and biggest darn train system in Texas.
The way you're defending this craziness is borderline sad.
I get that you want your train to succeed, but be realistic...JEEEZ.
If you can't see that this is a CLASSIC example of Dallas' vanity, then sadly you're ONE of the vain.
It's being built SOLEY for bragging rights...nothing more, nothing less.
But hey...I guess it's worth it as long as Dallasites can say that they have the best and biggest darn train system in Texas.
The thing about dying is that you have to actually die beforehand in order to know if you are truly dying. That's why we tend to get way too dramatic when we aren't actually dying at all. Having said this, I could sense that you thought you were dying having to admit that DART has the largest lightrail system in Texas. You almost started weeping.
Normally, building such an extensive system is considered more of an incredible accomplishment than a vain decadence.
If Houston were to get back on its feet, dust itself off, and apply itself towards building one rail line at a time, in about twenty years, the region too could have a similar system as Dallas does today.
Not necessarily true. The university line in Houston would throw the ridership through the roof.
Metro pulled a DART with its 1st line extension and it's 2nd and 3rd lines. Basically they assumed an "if you build it, they will come" mentality instead of continuing with what worked: connecting dense corridors.
The east side of the city is more sparse and building 2 new lines to the east did result in a plummet in ridership per mile, but rail to the southwest would have sent ridership #s soaring.
Westheimer has changed a lot the last 20 years, I know the line was meant for Richmond, but I can imagine how much quicker Westheimer would have developed if they could have made it work.
Westheimer already works. If it works, one shouldn't risk making it not work by running a train down the middle of it. I think that's why the people didn't want a rail line risking what was already working along Richmond. The thing to do is to look for a street a few streets over from Weistheimer to run a line if it is even possible to do that.
A subway would be cool, but is such a subterranean tunnel even possible in Houston?
When building it's subway, Dallas had to bore through white rock which they managed to do beneath an already sunken below grade freeway.
Those ridership numbers are systemwide. By definition, the addition of a line needs to increase ridership numbers. If systemwide ridership declines, adding a new line is a waste of money.
Exhibit A for - never trust your money with someone who bears no consequences for mismanaging it.
So, when can we expect your check for the $2B (more like $5B when all is said and done) it will cost to build this new line?
If you add 1 mile or 30 miles of track....IT"S A SYSTEM-WIDE ADDITION......No matter what.
You can expect it to increase OVER TIME!!.......But not on opening day.......It's impossible.
On opening day you have 30 extra miles of track that NO ONE has traveled on yet.
It works the same way as VACANCY percentages work.
If you have 10 million sq ft. of space that's 100% FULL...Meaning ABSOLUTELY NO VACANCY........
TheDEMAND for office space would be astronomically High!!!......No worries......Because the GRAND opening for 2... 1.2 million sq foot SPEC Office towers open in the morning........
YOU'LL WAKE UP TO AN INSTANT 24% Vacancy rate.......In the morning!!!
Last edited by dallasboi; 06-06-2023 at 02:14 AM..
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HOORAY!!!!!......In your heart, you feel rewarded for the achievement and are proud of yourself for being disciplined to build it high enough to get the house....You are living the American Dream!!!
......But that same DREAM is what reprimanded and lowered your credit score AGAIN for getting the house.....AND car for that matter.
......But we write that off as "Expected Protocol" and it doesn't affect our happiness.
......The only success marker would be if it grows...The longer it gets..the more successful the attempt to grow it becomes.
On opening day you have 30 extra miles of track that NO ONE has traveled on yet.
If you have 10 million sq ft. of space that's 100% FULL...Meaning ABSOLUTELY NO VACANCY........
......Because the GRAND opening for 2... 1.2 million sq foot SPEC Office towers open in the morning........
