WTI below $82. Ghostly Warnings of a Bust? (Houston, San Antonio: find a job, transfer to)

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by Austinite101

I read an article in a Dallas newspaper that some economists think Austin might actually benefit from a moderate oil bust in Texas (increase in tourist/hospitality spending). At least in the short term.

I think Austin as well as San Antonio will benefit from the oil bust, with people visit & or relocating here from Midland and Houston.

[radiolibre99]

So you guys are saying Austin and SA will be flooded with more transplants from other cities in Texas?

[Mark Senior]

Originally Posted by SouthernBoy205

70,000 jobs a year is not a bust for Houston. It's probably normal growth. Y'all are making Houston sound like Detroit.

No, No, Detroit is not Houston, I enjoyed, like Houston my 25 years there. I still like it. The expanded point of view I'm trying to make is, people by the thousands came to Houston, most JUST for a job. Lost the job and just left, few if any real connections to Houston, family back North or Northeast. Houston was not/is not like established cities in the North or Northeast where many people, not all by any means, left to Houston simply because they needed work. So no big deal to just leave.

I worked for a small family owned business, not my family, I would see people walk in the front door who were looking for work who had worked for their companies for 20-30 years. The "true" unemployment rate would have been who knows how high if all those people had stayed in Houston looking for work BECAUSE they had family, long time ties to Houston. I saw and felt the hardship, our company went from 16 to 4 employees during the bust and I could go nowhere so I, understood, when I new family bought the company and let me go, fire me, I was not family, lol.

My point is merely, thousands of people can just walk from their homes.... yes, I no about the credit being smashed etc.

I really like/liked Houston.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by radiolibre99

So you guys are saying Austin and SA will be flooded with more transplants from other cities in Texas?

The Big Getting Bigger and small getting smaller has been a couple of decades trend line in much of Texas.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by radiolibre99

So you guys are saying Austin and SA will be flooded with more transplants from other cities in Texas?

I wouldn't necessarily say that, but a small percentage of people from Midland & Houston will move to both area's like they do now. It maybe a little higher once big layoffs occur, but most people there will either move to another place or find another job where they currently live.

[JoninATX]

Austin as well as San Antonio gets it's fair share of people they live in other parts of Texas, just as people move out from Austin and SA to move to other places around the state as well.

[radiolibre99]

But what would make Austin immune from the downturn? Isn't Austin's prime employer the government? Would Perry "tighten the belt" to get through a rough patch?

[Austinite101]

Originally Posted by radiolibre99

But what would make Austin immune from the downturn? Isn't Austin's prime employer the government? Would Perry "tighten the belt" to get through a rough patch?

Austin's largest sector is tech, not government. Government a major sector, but most of the government jobs Austin has are local and federal. The only way I can see Austin hurting from a bust is if Texas deeply guts education funding.

[PostOak5115]

Originally Posted by radiolibre99

But what would make Austin immune from the downturn? Isn't Austin's prime employer the government? Would Perry "tighten the belt" to get through a rough patch?

You are right Austin would feel the effects being the state capitol, but its local tech base will keep moving forward. Perry wouldn't have to tighten the belt as there are many figureheads including the comptroller Susan Combs who will project a deficit if there was one and all will act accordingly as they've done in the past. Thankfully they all learned from the 80s oil busts of 82, 86 and the S&L crisis with the creation of the rainy day fund which has filled its coffers.


2014 is a different economy from the 80s, 1998, 2001-02, and 2008. The pipelines, refineries, processing plants, and terminals aren't going anywhere. Nor is the Port of Houston, Freeport, Galveston, and Sabine Pass.

Not one person can predict the absolute outcome of the future. One thing is certain that when a city as large as Houston feels pressure so does the region and states around it. This includes Dallas, Fort Worth, OKC, Austin, San Antonio, New Orleans. Another consideration to ponder is the sole fact that there so many mineral owners throughout the state of Texas and its neighboring states. This isn't limited to just Houston, Midland or Longview. Many veterans of the industry including the companies and mineral owners knew days like these would come, and they have and can leverage themselves from going under just as many did in the past. The second largest Neiman Marcus store will still be standing in the same location in Houston as it has always been since 1969. The opera and ballet will perform in the same Wortham Center that was surprisingly built with local and private funds from the last bust of 86-87. Many in the media and all negative feeders love drama, and especially Texas drama.

[PostOak5115]

Originally Posted by Mark Senior

No, No, Detroit is not Houston, I enjoyed, like Houston my 25 years there. I still like it. The expanded point of view I'm trying to make is, people by the thousands came to Houston, most JUST for a job. Lost the job and just left, few if any real connections to Houston, family back North or Northeast. Houston was not/is not like established cities in the North or Northeast where many people, not all by any means, left to Houston simply because they needed work. So no big deal to just leave.

I worked for a small family owned business, not my family, I would see people walk in the front door who were looking for work who had worked for their companies for 20-30 years. The "true" unemployment rate would have been who knows how high if all those people had stayed in Houston looking for work BECAUSE they had family, long time ties to Houston. I saw and felt the hardship, our company went from 16 to 4 employees during the bust and I could go nowhere so I, understood, when I new family bought the company and let me go, fire me, I was not family, lol.

My point is merely, thousands of people can just walk from their homes.... yes, I no about the credit being smashed etc.

I really like/liked Houston.

You do know that the established north, and northeast would sacrifice to gain the Menil Collection, Live Oaks, mild winters after Christmas, good looking women, Lynn Wyatt, southern hospitality, Tex Mex, palm trees, iced tea, seasoned food, and optimism in a bear market. Houston like so many of the the establish cities of the North and Northeast is an immigrant port city that has and can adapt to the times and business climate.

I do like Houston as well. Remember Enron? Oh wait that is now history.