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Check it out... They launched the balloon in Oakland and the data returned from the balloon shows exactly why its raining at 4500 feet and not at 6000 feet.
Temps drop below freezing above about 5500. Tons of moisture dropping from 15,000 feet over parts of CA so high peaks getting a ton of snow.
This particular area looks a bit dry at the time based on this but I wanted to show the temps in the area at those levels.
via Jeff Masters.
The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February.
It doesn't seem that big to me since it's hard to realize the weather is supposed to be warmer to be than a month ago. Winter's near it's tail end but without paying attention to the date it's easy to think oh, more cold winter weather.
via Jeff Masters.
The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February.
It doesn't seem that big to me since it's hard to realize the weather is supposed to be warmer to be than a month ago. Winter's near it's tail end but without paying attention to the date it's easy to think oh, more cold winter weather.
While you keep posting only that guys weather blogs I hope you know his agenda and cherry picking style as you bolded yourself. His degree should be revoked. You should look for times this has happened before...You might be shocked. Such an amateur statement he put out.
While you keep posting only that guys weather blogs I hope you know his agenda and cherry picking style as you bolded yourself. His degree should be revoked. You should look for times this has happened before...You might be shocked. Such an amateur statement he put out.
That's a bit much, I've seen you post far more biased sources, often without questioning them very much. Just because he has a view that you disagree with doesn't mean he's incompetent nor does it mean that his weather statements are wrong. The bolded comment was a reprint from a NWS forecast discussion.
I don't get it... you were complaining Jeff Masters should have stated that this winter's cold* was more noteworthy, and when he does you complain, too.
And record-wise, it really isn't as noteworthy as the California drought, unless the current rains drop enough.
I'll keep this short. Polar Vortex is stronger to the north then thought days ago. That means southern Stream suppressed south more.
The trend was real. I got screwed!
The further north you are the less you'll get.
High ratios snows
Look where the 8-10" area is now. Did we get Lucky or Screwed?
Poconos also getting lower snow totals. Didn't stop the local news from predicting higher snow totals there than here, as usual. lol. But that was yesterday morning, so maybe they've changed their tune now. Remembering back from a few days ago, among several of the models you posted, I believe the Canadian model was showing this before any of the others. Monday's now shaping up to be downright cold for March, high of 24F, low of 5F. Perfect timing. I'm also glad this is happening in the month of March. We got screwed out of the March snowstorm last year.
I'd say the monstrous cold this winter combined with the snowfall that will likely break all-time records on a widespread basis by the time the winter is done is at least as significant as the California drought.
Also, it should be noted that although the California drought has set a new record, it is similar to what was seen in 1977, so the same argument against the polar vortex being significant could be used against the drought being significant. Both are huge events, and it is quite obvious that the downplaying of the cold and snow is tainted by Masters and company's global warming agenda. Hypothetically, if there was record cold in one state coupled with top 10-type cold in the surrounding region of the country (corresponding to the drought), and in a much bigger part of the country there was huge waves of warmth all winter and snowfall was approaching the skimpiest on record, you would hear about the warmth and lack of snow constantly, just like the media obsessed over the warm and relatively snowless winter of 2011-12 (which had a cold/snowy West Coast) as a symptom of global warming, which came out (if I recall correctly) as the 4th warmest on record, behind some winters that occurred in the past 20 years. I don't put much stock in national averages myself, since they're too blended to give an accurate picture of what's really going on*, but the same data method that rated 2011-12 as the 4th warmest rate this winter to date as the 3rd coldest, perhaps the coldest since 1978-79. Snowfall across a wide swath of the country will likely break records this winter, as will Great Lakes ice cover. Where is the media obsession over this? Isn't this huge cold/snow at least as significant as the warmth and snowlessless of 2011-12?
*Because it reduces one of the largest countries in the world to just one number. If you had record cold in half the country and record heat in the other the national average would be right at average, which would be extremely misleading compared to the reality of an extreme bipolar pattern. Also, if a large part of the country has huge cold and a small part of the country has huge warmth, if the cold lessens a great deal but the warmth in the other part of the country goes away, the national average may show that it's gotten colder or the same when it's actually gotten warmer for most of the country. Maps showing where the cold and warmth is and how intense each are are far more useful.
The "amplified" upper flow, not the general flow(big difference) is unusual to see this late.
The "always" present Polar Vortex, not the rare Polar Vortex (big difference). PV is always around.
The "position" of it being this far south is not usual, BUT NOT RARE.
It happened in the past. In fact we've been comparing the 1990s & 1970s with the snow, cold and Great Lakes Ice this year. It happened in the 1920s, 1950s, Early 1900s, Late 1800s.
Here's their discussion.
The ridge extends from California to North Slopes of Siberia, which creates an amplified pattern, one you don't see often in late February but see many times over the winters. This is helping displace the Polar Vortex south more.
The Polar Vortex is ALWAYS around I'm surprised how much attention its getting this year, last year it was displaced over Europe, this year over N.America.
I'd say the monstrous cold this winter combined with the snowfall that will likely break all-time records on a widespread basis by the time the winter is done is at least as significant as the California drought.
Also, it should be noted that although the California drought has set a new record, it is similar to what was seen in 1977, so the same argument against the polar vortex being significant could be used against the drought being significant.
Perhaps my judgement in January was different because winter wasn't over. At this point, California is getting more rain likely transforming the rain to at least no worse than the last drought while the cold has continued and looked like it will keep on continuing for the next couple weeks.
I didn't think any state had reached coldest on record (for a month) or even second coldest, but maybe averaging over the winter it was. And didn't you say in a post a week or so ago that this winter wasn't cold enough for you?
Here, for the last two months we had below freezing temperatures with a couple of 4 day or so breaks.
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