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If you scroll down to p.317 on this link, you will see that the 1985 cold mostly missed New England. The biggest cold anomalies were in the South and Midwest.
ah. I think that's not rare; New England is far east enough that cold/heat outbreaks don't match much of the country. Checking, January 1985 had a coldest temperature of -2°F and it was 2.1°F below average. February 2015 had a coldest temperature of -16°F and it was 15.1°F below average (coldest for period of record). Nice link, btw.
February 2015 also the most numbers of days with lows -10°F or below in one month since 1981 (10). Before that, only January 1961 matches that. January 1961 was "only" 9.9°F below average (though only 2°F warmer than February 2015 because January has a lower average). But the last third might have been the coldest stretch here in 50 years, maybe 100 years? From January 21 to 30 every morning was below -10°F, four in a row were -25°F or colder, bottoming out at -30°F. Coldest high was only 12°F. And 30 inches of snow was on the ground. January 1994 had another brutally cold stretch.
Meh. I was looking at things from a more deep south perspective, not a northern one. Down here, Jan '85 was quite a bit colder than Feb '15. Feb 2015's vortex didn't dig as far south as Jan 1985's did.
I wouldn't be surprised if we had a rapid transition to La Nina over the course of next year - the same thing happened after the last time we had a strong El Nino (2009-10) and if I recall correctly it was historically rapid at the time. No reason it couldn't happen again, though.
As well as 1972-3.
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Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus
That would be a blowtorch pattern for early December in the East, possibly leading up to a massive release of arctic air later in the winter a la 1985. Then again, it's not as if the CFS has had much reliability at that range in the past year, so we'll have to wait and see. In more reliable ranges indications are there will be quite a cold, stormy pattern setting up toward the end of November, so if that pattern verifies it would be a rather abrupt shift - such a shift would hardly be unprecedented, though.
I don't recall either December 1972 or 2009 being blowtorches, as least not end-to-end. December 1972 warmed up from December 18 on, but after a very significant cold wave and some (for that winter) scarce snow on December 15.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus
As for the pattern for next winter as a whole, it's worth noting that the pattern we're currently seeing is not typical of a Strong El Nino, with the Pacific Northwest being hosed, California not being hosed at all, and models showing a cold stormy look in the East going into Thanksgiving. Siberian snowpack and growth gave a severe winter signal (in advance of mild El Nino winters it usually doesn't), and the sea surface temperatures support a pattern more similar to last winter's than anything else - among other things the warm blob is still very much present despite lots of storms trying to eat it up (1997 had no such pattern). All this is consistent with a pattern where the Pacific ridge is very much present, diverting the hosing to the PacNW and the arctic air to the eastern U.S. causing a cold and snowy winter in combination with abundant moisture flow (which is one thing we are seeing that's typical of El Nino).
California has gotten some rain. Not a hosing but it's early yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus
This is all just a guess, but I'd advise everyone to not expect a pattern consistent with a standard-issue 1998-type Strong El Nino, because our 2015 Strong El Nino is not acting like one. It's not based in the same area, its temperatures are going to crash much more rapidly than 1998's did, the ocean temperature patterns are completely different from 1998, and the pre-winter pattern is quite different.
I agree that it won't be another 1997-8. The Niña will likely take over rapidly as it did in 1969-70, 1972-3 and 2009-10. I don't see a 1983-4 or 1997-8 slow fade terribly likely.
I agree. If we see another polar vortex this coming winter, I expect it to be similar to January 7, 2014 or February 19, 2015, not 1985.
January 1985 was about as intense as it ever got and I'm doubtful we'll see such temps again in the 21st century with the warming of the atmosphere and all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
2015 was far colder overall up here; though its coldest extremes were probably about the same or a little milder than 1985. Seems weird to read 1985 made 2015 look mild. For us, it wasn't any single cold shot it was just one after another- the polar vortex parked itself
Remember, 2015's cold was focused late in the season after the sun angle started doing its work. 1985 peaked around January 20. If you remember the Inauguration was moved indoors.
I don't think it's a global warming impact; the urban heat island is far bigger now then in 1985 but I still think a 1985 result can happen if the cold is focused around January 15-February 10. Much later and you just don't see extremely cold temperatures.
It is truly funny how some folks don't understand colors & above normal maps doesn't mean "warm". Less than 1 degree above normal is still COLD, in fact some might say frigid in Canada compared to U.S normal.
We saw it happen in October, we will see it again this weekend...Arctic Air.. cold air can pour down. Lets stop acting like it's not going to get cold or snow.
and Even if Caribou Maine was 5 degrees above normal it would still be below 20°F for the D-J-F Avg temp. #WinterisComing
The problem is if we get something like February 2015 again, where the weather in some places like Syracuse was 17 degrees below normal. That's not natural, it's the difference between Syracuse and Murmansk, which is located in the arctic circle
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