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Not totally sure about that since the winds would be from the West. The other side of Michigan probably. What is NWS discussion saying there?
Latest GFS doesn't like the Northeast but likes Chicago and northern Indiana
Remember... these are not forecasts, they are possibilities which can change run to run. (GFS updates 4 times a day)
Yeah I'm having a hard time buying into that one, but as the storm moves to the east of us, we can get an injection of lake enhancement from the back end....
Currently our office has this... Expecting a video discussion probably later on today or by tomorrow morning as the track gets more firmly set
Quote:
WWUS43 KLOT 091628
WSWLOT
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1028 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2016
...PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
ILZ003-008-010-100030-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0003.161210T2100Z-161212T0900Z/
WINNEBAGO-OGLE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...OREGON...DIXON
1028 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2016
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
* MAIN IMPACT...THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES MAY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
ILZ004>006-011>014-020-022-INZ001-002-100030-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0003.161211T0000Z-161212T0900Z/
BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-
LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...
DEKALB...AURORA...ELGIN...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWE GO...JOLIET...
GARY...VALPARAISO
1028 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2016
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
* MAIN IMPACT...THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES MAY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
is there a track forecast for this storm? I suppose I could go onto pivotalweather or similar and look at a pressure map. Storm appears to have a zonal track from west to east. I'd go for upstate NY having a greater chance of snow than southern New England if only because we have a higher chance of mild ocean air.
Yeah I'm having a hard time buying into that one, but as the storm moves to the east of us, we can get an injection of lake enhancement from the back end....
You can use HPC, they put it up as we get closer in time. They are still waiting for better agreement past 7pm Sunday (Click on Surface Low Tracks)
Or like you said, and what I do, is, just play the loop of the models. Tropical TidBits is best for it. Load time is faster than Pivotal.
Don't forget... sometimes its tricky. The main storm may go into the Great Lakes then transfer the energy into a new coastal storm. You'll see this happen on the maps.
Thats actually NWS forecast. I think. 99% sure. NCEP runs with NWS forecast data. Thats why he mentioned NWS. Let me check something..
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I think. 99% sure. NCEP runs with NWS forecast data. Thats why he mentioned NWS. Let me check something..
