Winter Storm - January 3-4, 2018 (Multiple States) (warm, records, precipitation)

[Cambium]

Keep refreshing your forecasts to stay on top of them. Don't look once then get mad you missed the new updates




https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/948370946771046402

[Cambium]

For those of you that don't know... there is a button to click that compares that time frame to the previous update.


For instance.. NAM Hour 35 (Midnight Thursday) current update on left, previous update on right.


The center of the storm is a bit west more on this new update...and note the precip shield more extended back on this new run.


NWS and all forecasters are watching this. They might have to add a little snow into the forecast for points west of Raleigh now but they will need confirmation from other models.

[Cambium]

My twitter feed is lit up with that new NAM run. LOL..


would be a Virginia record. Lets see if other models start agreeing on the track closer to coast


https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/948383024747556864

[Cambium]

Here's the loop.. 5pm Wednesday to 9pm Thursday..


Note the rain now for Eastern NC. Storm too close. Crunch time now within 24hrs. So glad I'm not a forecaster!!

Classic Coastal snowstorm! Note the pressure dropping too as it comes up. Winds, snow, cold, waves, wow.

[Cambium]

Here are the snow totals from that NAM3km run. (*Not a forecast. *Not Guaranteed)


http://www.pivotalweather.com/model....6&r=us_ma&dpdt=


There's a parameter with that link that tells you the ratio at the specific forecast hour. Says Higher than 12:1 for me.

[Cambium]

Sorry guys, you don't get these every day or even every week or even every month! When they happen we drool! (ok, maybe just me)


Just look at this current map and you can see all the pieces coming together! Just so damn cool!!

Kinks are the shortwaves, pieces of energy in the upper atmosphere that came from the Pacific and Arctic! They will help blow up this coastal storm!

[ral31]

Reports of some snow flurries in Louisiana this evening. Probably not as impressive as it looks on the radar.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
840 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

.UPDATE...
Potent upper level trough currently swinging through the Four
State Region attm. While ceilings in association with the
shortwave are elevated (more so north of the I-20 Corridor than
south), we have been getting a few reports of snow grains and/or
snow flurries across portions of NE TX and NW LA late this
evening. The activity is quickly moving to the northeast in
advance of the trough axis itself but because precip, albeit very
light, is making it to the ground, did throw in some flurries for
the remainder of the night for most areas with the precip ending
across NE TX likely by midnight if not sooner. The cloud cover
will be a little slower to exit the region overnight as well and
therefore, did raise overnight min temps slightly but still
keeping the Hard Freeze Warning in tact.

[Cambium]

GFS just out also closer to coast. Wow!
The west trend past 48hrs reminds me of the Dec 9th surprise storm

State of emergency declared before it starts in Georgia.

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/...77433564176384

[ral31]

Originally Posted by Cambium

GFS just out also closer to coast. Wow!
The west trend past 48hrs reminds me of the Dec 9th surprise storm

State of emergency declared before it starts in Georgia.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

It will be interesting to see what the snowfall totals look like in S Georgia and South Carolina.

[jteskal]

I am in SC, and jealous the coast is getting hit. Wish it would move up here towards Charlotte. It is winter, I want to see and feel some snow.