Austin unemployment rate tops 7.1% - Austin Business Journal (Houston, Dallas: sales, job market)

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Austin unemployment hits 7.1% - Austin Business Journal:

Per the above article, what would you folks read into this? Let's stay away from national politics this time, as moderators seem to frown upon it...again, just on the local situation....

I said that I was curious as to whether relos would continue to come to Austin when it topped 7% unemployment about 4 months ago, and now it just has.....would that indicate the same to you? Can a city with such a high influx of newcomers absorb the same with a 7%+ UR, even if it is 2-5 ticks lower than the hardest bit states and national average?

Or are we just shuffling people and problems to where they will fester everywhere equally?

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Per the Austin Statesman article yesterday...

But that came to a halt last month, when the region had 1,200 fewer jobs than it did in June 2008, a decline of 0.2 percent, the commission reported Friday.
"It would be very shocking if that were the extent of the weakness," said Keith Phillips, senior economist and policy adviser with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' San Antonio branch.
Phillips said he expects the loss figure to be higher when researchers get more detailed information, such as job cuts at smaller technology firms. The monthly figure is an estimate based on a survey of a sampling of employers in an area. The Austin-area unemployment rate was up from 6.2 percent in May and 4.5 percent in June 2008. "The recession has come to Central Texas," said Terry Clower, associate director of the Center for Economic Development at the University of North Texas. "We are seeing economic pain to a magnitude that we have not seen for probably about 20 years."

Keep in mind that we have just, according to the first sentence, begun to LOSE jobs on a year-to-year basis......Again, what happens when a metro that is losing jobs has the largest population growth rate in the USA? Does that trend continue? Do people relocating here know this yet?

[CptnRn]

I am a little concerned that things could get to be a little like all during the dust bowl when thousands of people showed up in California desperate for jobs.

Can our infrastructure support all of the unemployed people who will are moving here? There is already a housing shortage predicted for 2011. Where shall we put the tent cities? At least California had a comfortable climate. The tent cities will be miserable here in the summer.

I can't fault anyone for wanting to improve their lot in life, and moving here if they think they will have a better chance here then where they currently live. But I also think its important to let everyone know who might be moving here without jobs lined up that the picture is not as rosy now as it was earlier in the year.

The increase in unemployment didn't just suddenly happen, see this graph here http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/00/02/10/image_8610020.jpg (broken link) If you smooth out the zigs and zags it has shown a study increase.

This was front page headline in the Statesman today. Austin job market sputtered in June (http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/employment/2009/07/18/0718texjobs.html - broken link)

The deepest job cuts came in the manufacturing sector, which lost 7,600 jobs over the year, a 12.9 percent loss. Major tech employers such as Applied Materials Inc., Spansion Inc., Freescale Semiconductor Inc. and Dell Inc. have cut manufacturing jobs in the past year.

This is the result of the downturn in the global market for these products, which is now resulting in cutbacks locally.

The manufacturing, government, and education and health services sectors each shed about 1,000 jobs during hte month. The only sector to post a significant increase was leisure and hospitality, which added 1,400 positions in June.

In addition everyone has been tightening their belts and buying less. This results in less sales taxes which support most government and education sector employment in the area. They are all cutting back because of budget shortfalls. Naturally jobs are lost as a result. It took longer to get to Austin but anyone who has been paying attention could see that the recession was bound to get here eventually.

[atxcio]

Some perspective. Dallas and Houston unemployment rates are now over 8%:

Houston -- 8%
Houston-area unemployment jumps to 8 percent - Houston Business Journal:

DFW -- 8.2%
D-FW unemployment rises in June - Dallas Business Journal:

But San Antonio remains lower... I think this may show some of the flaws in the US unemployment calculations. Does anyone really think jobs are easier to find in Austin and San Antonio vs. Dallas and Houston?

San Antonio -- 6.9%
San Antonio̢۪s June unemployment rises to 6.9 percent - San Antonio Business Journal:

[mlassoff]

Wait a minute here... What about all the threads announcing Austin had among the highest job growth in the nation? Maybe those weren't true after all.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by mlassoff

Wait a minute here... What about all the threads announcing Austin had among the highest job growth in the nation? Maybe those weren't true after all.

It was true, may still be true, which gives you some idea how bad it is elsewhere. Its been getting studily worse here for the last 2 years.
See this graph http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/00/02/10/image_8610020.jpg (broken link)

[BentBow]

There are a lot of jobs in Austin. Problem is, they are being done by foreign nationals. You know, "Those jobs Americans don't want to do" More like, "jobs Americans can't afford to do"
Texas needs to wake up, and mirror Arizona, Oklahoma, and other states penalizing those that employ foreign nationals, here illegally.(is that "PC" correct enough?)

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Originally Posted by atxcio

Some perspective. Dallas and Houston unemployment rates are now over 8%:

Houston -- 8%
Houston-area unemployment jumps to 8 percent - Houston Business Journal:

DFW -- 8.2%
D-FW unemployment rises in June - Dallas Business Journal:

But San Antonio remains lower... I think this may show some of the flaws in the US unemployment calculations. Does anyone really think jobs are easier to find in Austin and San Antonio vs. Dallas and Houston?

San Antonio -- 6.9%
San Antonio’s June unemployment rises to 6.9 percent - San Antonio Business Journal:

The jobs are not as viable, and not as prone to loss....less tech in SA, and more call center, etc........though I do believe that the flaw lies in underreporting unemployment.....if correct, perhaps everyone should move to San Antonio, to help them even things out a bit...

[usc619]

Originally Posted by BentBow

There are a lot of jobs in Austin. Problem is, they are being done by foreign nationals. You know, "Those jobs Americans don't want to do" More like, "jobs Americans can't afford to do"
Texas needs to wake up, and mirror Arizona, Oklahoma, and other states penalizing those that employ foreign nationals, here illegally.(is that "PC" correct enough?)

Illegals, let's call it what it is.

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Originally Posted by CptnRn

I am a little concerned that things could get to be a little like all during the dust bowl when thousands of people showed up in California desperate for jobs.

Can our infrastructure support all of the unemployed people who will are moving here? There is already a housing shortage predicted for 2011. Where shall we put the tent cities? At least California had a comfortable climate. The tent cities will be miserable here in the summer.

I can't fault anyone for wanting to improve their lot in life, and moving here if they think they will have a better chance here then where they currently live. But I also think its important to let everyone know who might be moving here without jobs lined up that the picture is not as rosy now as it was earlier in the year.

The increase in unemployment didn't just suddenly happen, see this graph here http://img.coxnewsweb.com/B/00/02/10/image_8610020.jpg (broken link) If you smooth out the zigs and zags it has shown a study increase.

This was front page headline in the Statesman today. Austin job market sputtered in June (http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/employment/2009/07/18/0718texjobs.html - broken link)



This is the result of the downturn in the global market for these products, which is now resulting in cutbacks locally.



In addition everyone has been tightening their belts and buying less. This results in less sales taxes which support most government and education sector employment in the area. They are all cutting back because of budget shortfalls. Naturally jobs are lost as a result. It took longer to get to Austin but anyone who has been paying attention could see that the recession was bound to get here eventually.

Great description......

I was visiting folks yesterday in the Chicago area, as my sis just gave birth to a new niece. and saw a storm coming over the horizon in the north while jogging......it was strange, because up north it was all dark, tornado-dark, but the south was all sunny and blue.....by the time I finished the 4-mile run, the dark sky caught up with me and was black everywhere....

That reminds so so much of the Austin economy....contrary for a spell while the national sky was falling, we saw it happening, but didn't think it would blow over/engulf us........and now it has......people that were caught in those dark clouds saw shelter in Austin while it remained blue, but now it is not.......

Question.....are we still a shelter per the national recession, or are we now caught in the same trap...maybe even a worse one with the tremendous number of monthly new residents joining the local job market?

http://listverse.files.wordpress.com/2008/12/unemployment-line-749345.jpg (broken link)

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Originally Posted by usc619

Illegals, let's call it what it is.

Between the illegals IN the country that singlehandedly destroyed much of the construction trade, amongst others, AND the offshoring/outsourcing of services and manufacturing to the third world, is it any wonder why we have folks standing in line looking for work?

Question is, what word is LEFT in this country? Looks like they are trying to outsource the entire tech sector now as well........

Perhaps we should just go back to the farm culture, and grow our own food....laugh, but it might come back to that sooner than later..

http://www.econsciousmarket.com/eco-times/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/farm-view-by-nicholas-t.jpg (broken link)

And would that be such a bad thing?