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View Poll Results: Does Anyone Still Believe BEVs won't be 50% of New Car Sales by 2030?
Yes, I am still in denial 83 62.41%
No, you were right along Ze 50 37.59%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-11-2022, 06:30 PM
 
7,807 posts, read 3,810,565 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
Oh yea, totally not made up.
I did put in a smilie.

 
Old 02-11-2022, 06:42 PM
 
7,807 posts, read 3,810,565 times
Reputation: 14717
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
The amount of charging time can be improved in several ways and simultaneously. One is to have battery chemistries that are geared towards faster charging. Another is to have more batteries even of the same chemistry that can receive that charge. Another is to improve the efficiency of the vehicle so that charging at any given rate yields more miles per minute of charging. Another is to improve upon active battery thermal management systems and a host of other bits here and there that can help. Right now the fastest charging mass production EV charges at a maximum of about 20 miles a minute, so close to 100 miles in 5 minutes when done at low states of charge. I expect that to rapidly improve over the course of this decade though I also expect the majority of charging to be done at much lower rates (and cost) while parked at home and workplaces.
I assume there are always benefit trade-offs; employing battery chemistry geared towards faster charging must result in some other aspect that isn't as desirable compared to what I'd call traditional chemistry. If that's true, perhaps a dual battery architecture might be interesting: a battery engineered to provide the fastest charging by throwing all feasible technologies at it (at considerable extra cost) coupled with a more mainstream battery that is charged only once the first is rapidly charged, and would mostly likely get topped off not at roadside charging but rather at overnight charging at home.

Or something like that.
 
Old 02-11-2022, 06:54 PM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,557,555 times
Reputation: 7783
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
It would be interesting if you actually had some rationale laid out for why you think the way you do, because I haven't seen anything to support such or a particularly solid argument or evidence to support such.
I've noticed that you tend to think of people as behaving rationally.

In a sense you are correct 300 mile range should be sufficient. So someone on a long trip (I have easily driven 700 miles per day on a cross country trip) might have to stop twice to recharge and once they reach their destination may have to pay to recharge if they are sleeping in a hotel or beach house where they can't plug in.

In the big scheme of things that is a little time for snacks, toilet, and just plain old stretching. So what if it is a few minutes longer than a gasoline refill. What is that compared to the damage done by hundreds of millions of internal combustion engines.

I don't think people are rational. I think they ornery and opinionated and choose to die instead of getting a simple free vaccine shot. They will whine and complain about that trip even if they only do a trip like that every couple of months.
 
Old 02-11-2022, 08:47 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
21,872 posts, read 25,139,139 times
Reputation: 19072
Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
I've noticed that you tend to think of people as behaving rationally.

In a sense you are correct 300 mile range should be sufficient. So someone on a long trip (I have easily driven 700 miles per day on a cross country trip) might have to stop twice to recharge and once they reach their destination may have to pay to recharge if they are sleeping in a hotel or beach house where they can't plug in.

In the big scheme of things that is a little time for snacks, toilet, and just plain old stretching. So what if it is a few minutes longer than a gasoline refill. What is that compared to the damage done by hundreds of millions of internal combustion engines.

I don't think people are rational. I think they ornery and opinionated and choose to die instead of getting a simple free vaccine shot. They will whine and complain about that trip even if they only do a trip like that every couple of months.
Not at all. It's completely rational. It's just that you're assuming buyers priorities when they obviously don't have them.

Someone predominantly concerned with environment considerations would be aghast at a 300 mile range EV. A 20 kWh battery is way more than anyone concerned with the environment needs as they only drive 3,000 miles a year with thei 12-year-old Leaf anyway. A 70 or 80 or 150 kWH battery abdominably wasteful and destructive to the environment for the type of person that actually makes sacrifices to their quality of life to save the polar bears.

But yeah, that's just about nobody. The rest of people the environment is a distant second. Most people who put on airs about caring the environment won't be as blunt about it as I am but behavior speaks a million times louder than worlds. If you're living in a big suburban house full of disposable electronics you replace regularly with a long commute to work and a fancy Tesla you bought because of the Supercharger network allowing you to more conveniently take 1,100 road-trips and drive 700 miles in a day for pleasure... newflash, you don't care about the enviornment much. You're better than perhaps 50% of people who just dont' care at all because you'll make small changes, so long as they don't impact your quality of life anyway, but like the other 49.98% of people that's it. You're still going to take your road trips, get on planes, upgrade your iPhone regularly, and have three 50+ inch 4K tvs in the house. The Model X makes you feel good about yourself rather than that ahole neighbor with a similar lifestyle who drives a Tahoe... and good for you for making even small token gestures but don't let the high horse go to your head.

That is who is buying EVs and it's perfectly rational. They're looking for something that they can maintain their quality of life first and foremost and the environment second. If instead they stopped buying new houses build in the suburbs, moved to walking distance to work even if it meant taking a cut in pay and lowering their carreer prospects, kids coudl walk to school, bought an old Leaf they drove 2,800 miles a year because sometimes you're just not going to take the utility bicycle to Costco then you'd be correct. But that isn't the EV buyer's mindset. They're like me. If an EV can replace a gasoline car without negatively impacting their life, that's great. If it can't, they'll go buy a gasoline car.
 
Old 02-11-2022, 09:23 PM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,557,555 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
Most people who put on airs about caring the environment won't be as blunt about it as I am but behavior speaks a million times louder than worlds. If you're living in a big suburban house full of disposable electronics you replace regularly with a long commute to work and a fancy Tesla you bought because of the Supercharger network allowing you to more conveniently take 1,100 road-trips and drive 700 miles in a day for pleasure... newflash, you don't care about the enviornment much.
Prince Charles leased a 246 MY to reduce his carbon footprint.
Britain's Prince Charles, eschewing pollution-spewing jets, is touring the Caribbean on a 246-foot megayacht, complete with hot tub, gym and 24-member crew.

Prince Charles once leased a Dassault Falcon Jet for an official trip from London to Northern Ireland ( a trip of 283 nautical miles). Charles, can you say King Air turboprop? You are a world famous environmentalist.

I don't know if you've ever read renaissance history, but the Catholic church once had a huge business in indulgences . Indulgences were, from the beginning of the Protestant Reformation, a target of attacks by Martin Luther and other Protestant theologians.

As environmentalism has replaced communism as the world's biggest secular religion, we have "carbon offsets" instead of indulgences.
 
Old 02-11-2022, 09:37 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
21,872 posts, read 25,139,139 times
Reputation: 19072
Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
Prince Charles leased a 246 MY to reduce his carbon footprint.
Britain's Prince Charles, eschewing pollution-spewing jets, is touring the Caribbean on a 246-foot megayacht, complete with hot tub, gym and 24-member crew.

Prince Charles once leased a Dassault Falcon Jet for an official trip from London to Northern Ireland ( a trip of 283 nautical miles). Charles, can you say King Air turboprop? You are a world famous environmentalist.

I don't know if you've ever read renaissance history, but the Catholic church once had a huge business in indulgences . Indulgences were, from the beginning of the Protestant Reformation, a target of attacks by Martin Luther and other Protestant theologians.

As environmentalism has replaced communism as the world's biggest secular religion, we have "carbon offsets" instead of indulgences.
Sailing would definitely bet better. Unfortunately megayachts don't have sails.

In solidarity I've deciced to save the carbons by taking public transit to go to the grocery store. Not as glamorous as a sailless megayacht but it's the best I can do. I'll start off taking a bus 1.5 miles the wrong direction, get on a second bus going mostly the opposite direct for about 3 miles. Then I'll "sail" 28 miles to San Francisco on diesel powered ferry. From there I'll catch BART to 14th and Market to do my shopping at Safeway. Retrace the steps and back home. I hear cars are bad so this will definitely reduce my carbons as opposed to driving 3 miles to the Safeway
 
Old 02-12-2022, 12:58 AM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,557,555 times
Reputation: 7783
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
Sailing would definitely bet better. Unfortunately megayachts don't have sails.
Some Megayachts do have sails.

A megayacht with sails is the ultimate expression of the mindset that you are discussing in your monologue below.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
That is who is buying EVs and it's perfectly rational. They're looking for something that they can maintain their quality of life first and foremost and the environment second. If instead they stopped buying new houses build in the suburbs, moved to walking distance to work even if it meant taking a cut in pay and lowering their carreer prospects, kids could walk to school, bought an old Leaf they drove 2,800 miles a year because sometimes you're just not going to take the utility bicycle to Costco then you'd be correct. But that isn't the EV buyer's mindset. They're like me. If an EV can replace a gasoline car without negatively impacting their life, that's great. If it can't, they'll go buy a gasoline car.
Kids call it virtue signalling.

Last edited by PacoMartin; 02-12-2022 at 01:26 AM..
 
Old 02-12-2022, 01:20 AM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,557,555 times
Reputation: 7783
EV Adaptions latest long-term forecast for new electric vehicle (BEV and PHEV) sales in the US through 2030. EV sales should grow to reach approximately 29.5% of all new car sales in 2030 from an expect roughly 3.4% in 2021

So that is BEV and PHEV sales at only 29.5% by the year 2030. A far cry from 50% BEV only in the thread title.
 
Old 02-12-2022, 02:39 AM
 
Location: Not far from Fairbanks, AK
20,293 posts, read 37,179,500 times
Reputation: 16397
Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
I've noticed that you tend to think of people as behaving rationally.

In a sense you are correct 300 mile range should be sufficient. So someone on a long trip (I have easily driven 700 miles per day on a cross country trip) might have to stop twice to recharge and once they reach their destination may have to pay to recharge if they are sleeping in a hotel or beach house where they can't plug in.

In the big scheme of things that is a little time for snacks, toilet, and just plain old stretching. So what if it is a few minutes longer than a gasoline refill. What is that compared to the damage done by hundreds of millions of internal combustion engines.

I don't think people are rational. I think they ornery and opinionated and choose to die instead of getting a simple free vaccine shot. They will whine and complain about that trip even if they only do a trip like that every couple of months.
Human existence does more damage to the environment than just using internal combustion engines. We enjoy comfort, safety, a roof over one's head, warm water when taking a shower, clothes washer and dryers, toilets, and on and on to no end. As I sit and type these comments of mine, I look around the room and ponder about are a myriad of things I surround myself with, all created because of internal combustion engines. The fact is that every product at home is not generated there. Even the materials used to build it the home was transported there from somewhere else. Trains, ships, aircraft, heavy equipment for construction, power plants, transport trucks, runway heavy equipment, graders, loaders, dozers, "belly dumpers," tractor trailers with tankers, paved roads and parking lots.... all for us to make our lives comfortable. EV's aren't going to stop damaging the environment.

Last edited by RayinAK; 02-12-2022 at 02:52 AM..
 
Old 02-12-2022, 05:55 AM
 
Location: western NY
6,441 posts, read 3,143,427 times
Reputation: 10106
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK View Post
Human existence does more damage to the environment than just using internal combustion engines. We enjoy comfort, safety, a roof over one's head, warm water when taking a shower, clothes washer and dryers, toilets, and on and on to no end. As I sit and type these comments of mine, I look around the room and ponder about are a myriad of things I surround myself with, all created because of internal combustion engines. The fact is that every product at home is not generated there. Even the materials used to build it the home was transported there from somewhere else. Trains, ships, aircraft, heavy equipment for construction, power plants, transport trucks, runway heavy equipment, graders, loaders, dozers, "belly dumpers," tractor trailers with tankers, paved roads and parking lots.... all for us to make our lives comfortable. EV's aren't going to stop damaging the environment.
VERY well stated!!

Even thousands of us typing comments on this website, creates a need for "power", for our device, either directly by being plugged into an electrical outlet, or by plugging in occasionally, to charge the battery. As i mentioned in another post, there's NO free lunch!!
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