When is the Next CA Housing Price Collapse Supposed to Happen? (San Diego: contractors, exemption)

[Eli34]

Originally Posted by PhoenixSomeday

I was unaware that these things were scheduled. I, too, would like to get in on the 'buying a house at the bottom of the next dip of the regularly oscillating economic cycle". Please keep me apprised. Kthx.

Save your money and be patient.

[CA4Now]

Recession fears are growing, and that may prompt some Americans—who are still haunted by the last one—to get skittish about the housing market. Don’t expect another “real estate fire sale” if the economy heads into another recession, economists say.

“This is going to be a much shorter recession than the last one,” George Ratiu, senior economist with realtor.com®, notes in a recent article at the site. “I don’t think the next recession will be a repeat of 2008. … The housing market is in a better position.”

Just 2% of economists, strategists, academics, and policymakers surveyed believe a recession will occur this year, based on a survey of more than 200 members of the National Association for Business Economics.

https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/...-housing-is-ok

[TR95]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Recession fears are growing, and that may prompt some Americans—who are still haunted by the last one—to get skittish about the housing market. Don’t expect another “real estate fire sale” if the economy heads into another recession, economists say.

“This is going to be a much shorter recession than the last one,” George Ratiu, senior economist with realtor.com®, notes in a recent article at the site. “I don’t think the next recession will be a repeat of 2008. … The housing market is in a better position.”

Just 2% of economists, strategists, academics, and policymakers surveyed believe a recession will occur this year, based on a survey of more than 200 members of the National Association for Business Economics.

https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/...-housing-is-ok

Imagine a realtor.com economist saying what he said. Wow takes a genius to figure out that this recession won’t be as long as the last one. Of course a realtor, an NAR economists will say the housing market is in a better position. Heard those predictions for the last 35 years.

And 2% economists don’t expect a recession this year. Given that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP it doesn’t take a rocket science to guess there won’t be a recession in 2019 given that it’s already August. So unless there’s some crazy thing happening to cause negative GDP by 9/30 it’s an impossibility we will have a recession in 2019.

If Trumps stupid tarriffs don’t put us into a recession then I really don’t see one happening as the administration will do everything to avoid a recession until after the election. Then all bets are off. Will the housing market be like 2008? Doubtful in my opinion unless rates are increased by 200 basis points. Will the housing market end up like the 2000 recession where LA stayed relatively flat for 9 months or so and the Bay Area dropped 10% mainly driven by the dot com bubble or will housing be like 1990 when LA dropped by 20%+ in most areas.

No one knows, know one knew back in 2007. Lenders have loosened a little going up to 48% or so DTI ratios, but they still want to see 10% down if you go up that high so there likely won’t be as many people walking away that did in 2008-2012.

[Eli34]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Recession fears are growing, and that may prompt some Americans—who are still haunted by the last one—to get skittish about the housing market. Don’t expect another “real estate fire sale” if the economy heads into another recession, economists say.

“This is going to be a much shorter recession than the last one,” George Ratiu, senior economist with realtor.com®, notes in a recent article at the site. “I don’t think the next recession will be a repeat of 2008. … The housing market is in a better position.”

Just 2% of economists, strategists, academics, and policymakers surveyed believe a recession will occur this year, based on a survey of more than 200 members of the National Association for Business Economics.

https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/...-housing-is-ok

And almost 40% see a recession by 2020.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...9-8-1028456445

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by TR95

Imagine a realtor.com economist saying what he said. Wow takes a genius to figure out that this recession won’t be as long as the last one. Of course a realtor, an NAR economists will say the housing market is in a better position.

Yeah, imagine! Actually, the person who sent it has been a top selling realtor in our area for over 30 years, and was very candid during the most recent housing bubble pop when she dealt with our property.

Originally Posted by TR95

Heard those predictions for the last 35 years.

Sure didn't hear that back in 1989, or 1995, or 2008...we pretty much heard the opposite.

[Section8UpX68WM6]

Originally Posted by Searching-01

Any thoughts or rationales on when the burst is supposed to happen in CA?

Shhhhiiiieeeee_! If I were to guess for the Bay Area, I'd say if Facebook, Google, and those other tech companies get broken up , declare bankruptcy, or move to Texas like Toyota or Apple (?). That's one reason why houses here in the Bay are crazy expensive. The last time houses were cheap in SAN FRANCISCO was in the early 1990s. Nobody back then wanted houses in the MIssion District for instance unless you had no choice. Everybody wanted homes like say...the Sunset or Richmond Districts.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Section8UpX68WM6

Shhhhiiiieeeee_! If I were to guess for the Bay Area, I'd say if Facebook, Google, and those other tech companies get broken up , declare bankruptcy, or move to Texas like Toyota or Apple (?). That's one reason why houses here in the Bay are crazy expensive. The last time houses were cheap in SAN FRANCISCO was in the early 1990s. Nobody back then wanted houses in the MIssion District for instance unless you had no choice. Everybody wanted homes like say...the Sunset or Richmond Districts.

Apple is already moving manufacturing to Texas.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Apple is already moving manufacturing to Texas.

They have a huge compound just built outside Austin but nobody here in Ca wants to talk about that.


hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by Finper

They have a huge compound just built outside Austin but nobody here in Ca wants to talk about that.
hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil

lol maybe it's just not very exciting, but you are welcome to talk about it if you want.

[bad debt]

Originally Posted by Finper

They have a huge compound just built outside Austin but nobody here in Ca wants to talk about that.


hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil

They also have expanded to Culver City and Irvine. Why don't you mention that?