Why Not to move to Mt. Pleasant (Columbia, Charleston: appointed, fit in)
Charleston areaCharleston - North Charleston - Mt. Pleasant - Summerville - Goose Creek
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Love that this topic is getting so many posts in 2 days. I guess even the pro- mt p club is tired of talking about how awesome it is to move here from somewhere else .
People who don't even live in MP are tearing your post apart
And going two years more shows the "real" picture? LOL Especially since the 2000 and 2010 numbers are hard numbers, not estimates?
Since you're not interviewing each and every person about their migration, you need to look at complete sets of migration numbers, including those outside of the target area, to control for other variables, hence why it took 3 years for Winkler et al. (2013) to bring you that. Even you can admit that you can't predict a drop without this study being extended. Luckily, they'll pick up where they left off in 6 more years. It wasn't me that criticized the Forbes article, BTW. I just have many years experience and education in statistics to know that you cannot use population of a single county to determine migration by age. It's not controlling for other variables, such as the baby boom (currently at retirement age). I'm not saying you can't make estimations or references from the articles you posted, all I'm saying is my data is more accurate than yours. Stick to Google Analytics for your PPC campaigns, where the work is practically done for you.
Nonetheless, I'm not sure what your point is. If we pretend New Orleans is a boppin' town full of yuppies, will that make you move on and stop embarrassing yourself? If so, count me in.
Apologies in mistaking you for the other person who criticized an earlier dataset. It does sort of shock me that a data analyst would discount the google public dataset project. You realize that that data comes straight from the census bureau, and the google thing is just a vizualization aid, right? And you also realize that this has nothing with Google Analytics, correct?
If you have a data-set extending prior to your start date, you can very easily correct for confounding variables with a fairly high degree of certainty. The data will not be perfect, yours is certainly more accurate, but is sufficient for making a reasonable and statistically sound prediction of total population increase due to migration.
Also, keep in mind that all the articles talking about Charleston's incredible growth come from AFTER your data set. With your undergrad degree (yes, I'm a creepy stalker) you should know how terrible a crime against numbers it is to extrapolate something as volatile as migration.
As a side note, it's interesting that Charleston County, largely a college town, sees a large positive net migration in the college-aged population and then a sharp negative net migration in the post-college demographics. This trend is actually repeated in every decade since the 1950s. Kids come to Charleston to go to school, stick around for a couple of years, then leave. I wish I had a better data set to support my conclusions, but unfortunately the migration data doesn't generally include the reason for migration or the employment classification of migrants. The only supporting evidence I have is that a steady influx of youth would seem to indicate that the median age in Charleston should be well below the national average. In fact, the median age for Charleston proper is between 34 and 37, depending on where you look. The median age in the US as a whole as of 2013 was 37. It's a difference, but not enough of one to support the hypothesis that every year, between 40-55 people per hundred between the ages of 20 and 24 migrate to the city and stay for good. Those numbers are also inconsistent with a net population growth rate of 4+%.
As far as my point, it was simply that Mt. Pleasant, and the Charleston area as a whole, is nice. However, it is not the be-all-and-end-all mther of all rainbows and unicorns that people like to say it is. It's not really a tech hub, it isn't really a foodie city, it's not actually a tourist Mecca, it doesn't have nearly the history that people love to claim it does, and people aren't moving here en masse from all corners of the United States. It's a nice, quaint little beach/college town with some interesting history and a propensity for flooding and bad drivers. It's good, but it isn't great, and it will never be great so long as people do nothing but talk about how awesome it is. In my opinion. (and also that people would much rather move elsewhere)
But either way, we'll see in 6 years. I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong if I turn out to be, and I hope you feel the same.
P.S. Other people have also studied statistics and have experience with incredibly large datasets. Some of us even spend large portions of our workday using incomplete data to make inferences and build models and not just running audit macros on accounting Excell documents.
As far as my point, it was simply that Mt. Pleasant, and the Charleston area as a whole, is nice. However, it is not the be-all-and-end-all mther of all rainbows and unicorns that people like to say it is.
LOL. Most of the people saying that work in real estate or construction. I'm sure many of the city boards have real estate pros trying to convince potential transplants that their market area is paradise.
Apologies in mistaking you for the other person who criticized an earlier dataset. It does sort of shock me that a data analyst would discount the google public dataset project. You realize that that data comes straight from the census bureau, and the google thing is just a vizualization aid, right? And you also realize that this has nothing with Google Analytics, correct?
If you have a data-set extending prior to your start date, you can very easily correct for confounding variables with a fairly high degree of certainty. The data will not be perfect, yours is certainly more accurate, but is sufficient for making a reasonable and statistically sound prediction of total population increase due to migration.
Also, keep in mind that all the articles talking about Charleston's incredible growth come from AFTER your data set. With your undergrad degree (yes, I'm a creepy stalker) you should know how terrible a crime against numbers it is to extrapolate something as volatile as migration.
As a side note, it's interesting that Charleston County, largely a college town, sees a large positive net migration in the college-aged population and then a sharp negative net migration in the post-college demographics. This trend is actually repeated in every decade since the 1950s. Kids come to Charleston to go to school, stick around for a couple of years, then leave. I wish I had a better data set to support my conclusions, but unfortunately the migration data doesn't generally include the reason for migration or the employment classification of migrants. The only supporting evidence I have is that a steady influx of youth would seem to indicate that the median age in Charleston should be well below the national average. In fact, the median age for Charleston proper is between 34 and 37, depending on where you look. The median age in the US as a whole as of 2013 was 37. It's a difference, but not enough of one to support the hypothesis that every year, between 40-55 people per hundred between the ages of 20 and 24 migrate to the city and stay for good. Those numbers are also inconsistent with a net population growth rate of 4+%.
As far as my point, it was simply that Mt. Pleasant, and the Charleston area as a whole, is nice. However, it is not the be-all-and-end-all mther of all rainbows and unicorns that people like to say it is. It's not really a tech hub, it isn't really a foodie city, it's not actually a tourist Mecca, it doesn't have nearly the history that people love to claim it does, and people aren't moving here en masse from all corners of the United States. It's a nice, quaint little beach/college town with some interesting history and a propensity for flooding and bad drivers. It's good, but it isn't great, and it will never be great so long as people do nothing but talk about how awesome it is. In my opinion. (and also that people would much rather move elsewhere)
But either way, we'll see in 6 years. I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong if I turn out to be, and I hope you feel the same.
P.S. Other people have also studied statistics and have experience with incredibly large datasets. Some of us even spend large portions of our workday using incomplete data to make inferences and build models and not just running audit macros on accounting Excell documents.
I'm aware of Google's data project. I thought you mentioned that you worked in advertising, hence the GA reference. I may have confused you with someone else though.
You keep trying to extend the inferences that you can make about population data to migration. You brought it up originally as migration. Saying "Charleston is full of old people" is much different than saying "the growth is due to retirement migration." You're the one that claimed the latter, but backed it up with evidence supporting the former. I merely presented solid evidence against the latter. You're grabbing at straws to make your argument now. It's almost like saying, "I'll take the long way to get there, but I'll speed and run every red light and I'll get there at the same time as you." If you make "quality" inferences in your job like this one, you probably should be fired.
No one said Charleston was a mecca. They are simply happy with getting noticed and choosing to live in a place that does, not to mention has obvious growth. You'd see that if you actually lived here. It IS a foodie town. Feel free to ask whomever you'd like that makes that decision. It IS a tourist hot spot (voted #1 3 years in a row by a representative sample of: TOURISTS!). It's a great place to live, you can easily see that with how many people are against your argument...
I love New Orleans, I'm sure living there is great. I love the NY Giants so I love the Mannings. My cousin/great friend was married there and his wife is from there and is the grand-daughter of a well-known aristocrat there (last name Sanders). Her brother also owns a local limo service there. Awesome city. But IMO, it's no Charleston. The general public seems to agree.
We will certainly see in 6-9 years. I know where my money stands. In the meantime, keep shooting for the stars.
PS - Just because someone is a master at Excel doesn't mean they don't regularly work with large data sets, SQL, SQL UI software, and haven't presented inferences to boards of directors and executives. It also doesn't mean they haven't also inferred from web/ad campaigns as well. It certainly doesn't mean that they haven't been in golf memberships with executives and haven't been one themselves. Keep shooting for the stars. You'll get there, learn a few lessons and come on back. I'll give you a hug when you do. ;-)
Last edited by rorytmeadows; 05-22-2014 at 10:30 PM..
We will certainly see in 6-9 years. I know where my money stands. In the meantime, keep shooting for the stars.
)
You sound like the people on City Data years back who thought the real estate boom wasn't a bubble. They kept saying that in X number of years, all our houses would triple in value. And this was despite the fact the developers were constantly being approved for subdivisions with thousands of homes. "Our massive population growth in Mt. P. will fill those homes up in no time," they said. "We really need to start building 10,000 more to keep up with all the people who want to live here." I stopped visiting City Data after the crash because I didn't want to seem like I was rubbing it in that I had been right all along. Some of those people did bet their money on those silly realtor's pipe dreams and got burned very badly.
Last edited by Native_Ink; 05-23-2014 at 06:08 AM..
I don't live in Mt. P and it isn't a good fit for me/my family at this time BUT it is a GREAT town. No town/city is perfect but Mt.P is a great place. Many times it has to do with personal preference. Mt P might be on the higher end for the Charleston area but it is still a very affordable place to live in comparison to other places with a similar environment. Tourists are probably just driving through with an occassional stop, as they are heading to Sullivans or IOP. I do think Mt. P is has a more uppity attitude/feel than many other local areas but that is me being judgmental, I've never felt looked down upon when I'm shopping in the area (PS-I feel the same way when I walk up to a make-up counter so this is my issue, not Mt. Ps).
Interesting data about 50% of new Mt. P. residents being retirement age or close. Part of that is due to Mt. P's high housing prices. Most young people can't afford to buy a house there, though they could rent an apartment.
Any town with a gray population will have to eventually deal with the downside of the Baby Boomer retirement glut. The next wave of retirees will be much smaller.
You sound like the people on City Data years back who thought the real estate boom wasn't a bubble. They kept saying that in X number of years, all our houses would triple in value. And this was despite the fact the developers were constantly being approved for subdivisions with thousands of homes. "Our massive population growth in Mt. P. will fill those homes up in no time," they said. "We really need to start building 10,000 more to keep up with all the people who want to live here." I stopped visiting City Data after the crash because I didn't want to seem like I was rubbing it in that I had been right all along. Some of those people did bet their money on those silly realtor's pipe dreams and got burned very badly.
Of course anything could happen. They say we are also in another tech bubble that will burst soon as well...
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