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So assuming that's a peak rate, and projects take two years on average, that's 10,000. Not bad, but not tens of thousands.
You said "breaking ground." Does that mean they've broken ground with real money being spent, or just scheduled to do so soon?
For rentals, a broad definition of greater Downtown Pittsburgh (North Shore, South Side Flats, Strip District, Hill District, etc.) has 1,478 units underway as of today per CoStar. I don't have condo data.
Baltimore's pre-defined CoStar subareas don't work very well, so I drew my own generous boundaries and got 285 UC rental apartments, just 2001 Aliceanna St in Fell's Point. That omits condos and townhouses, which might be the lion's share?
If you mean the office core might be tops, that could be. Many cities don't build a lot of housing in their office cores.
If you mean "greater downtowns" then you're up against places that can add tens of thousands of units in theory and have done so before. Think places with high demand, lots of underused sites remaining, and the ability to not build much parking in new projects.
Greater Downtown Seattle, a gerrymandered four square miles or so, had 8,000 units underway when I did a napkin count the other day. It's a fairly normal number as high demand has continued after a brief 2020 drop.
I was just talking about office cores in the CBD of all these cities since the pandemic restrictions have lifted. I was trying to gauge how they are doing and whether workers are coming back. COVID is changing everything so it will be interesting to see where these downtowns land post COVID.
Downtown DC has been built out for years as almost exclusive office square footage. Of the 91,524 housing units built in DC from 2001-2020 and the 13,777 housing units under construction as of 2021, pretty much all of them have been and are currently being built outside of downtown DC. While most cities have been building taller buildings in their downtown areas to accommodate residential growth, height restrictions have made downtown DC an office ghetto because of the profit difference between office and residential.
But then COVID came. Who would have thought a pandemic would be the reason downtown DC would transform itself. The one thing holding downtown DC back has always been a low residential population. But post COVID, the office buildings that stretch as far as the eye can see in DC are falling like dominos to residential conversion one-by-one. The residential density capacity through office-to-residential conversions in downtown DC is astronomical. Downtown DC will play a huge role in DC proper getting to 1 million people.
So assuming that's a peak rate, and projects take two years on average, that's 10,000. Not bad, but not tens of thousands.
You said "breaking ground." Does that mean they've broken ground with real money being spent, or just scheduled to do so soon?
It's actually off peak which was close to 3k. ~2k is about average during covid-era.
By "breaking ground" I mean projects that have actually broken ground with shovels in the dirt or demolition starting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays25
For rentals, a broad definition of greater Downtown Pittsburgh (North Shore, South Side Flats, Strip District, Hill District, etc.) has 1,478 units underway as of today per CoStar. I don't have condo data.
Baltimore's pre-defined CoStar subareas don't work very well, so I drew my own generous boundaries and got 285 UC rental apartments, just 2001 Aliceanna St in Fell's Point. That omits condos and townhouses, which might be the lion's share?
Thats some good infill for greater Downtown Pittsburgh. Hill District is supposed to be breaking ground on a 400' skyscraper soon.
Yeah, thats definitely not accurate lol. I can think of like 7-8 different apartment buildings of the top of my head U/C in Fells Point/Somerset/Perkins alone. When it comes to city housing construction in Baltimore it's Apartments > Conversions >> Row/Townhomes >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Condo's
If you haven't already, I'd definitely check out SkyscraperCity's "Baltimore Development" thread. With 10 million views it's most most viewed on the site, and for good reason.
MDAllstar: Which Philly-area developer? I don't have access to a subscription that allows access to all of ACBJ's publications — just the Philadelphia Business Journal.
Doesn't surprise me one bit that COVID is accelerating the pace of office-to-residential conversions. But right now in Philadelphia, it looks to me like new multifamily construction continues to outdo conversions in Center City. Two projects are now underway at opposite corners of the same block, and a third corner of this block is also slated to get a high-rise multifamily building, for instance.
I'd be curious to see what said developer is up to hereabouts.
Seems past few years this even pre-covid and during office to residential and boutique hotels in some cities trend has been going on. DC was still high and perhaps accelerating vs the larger cities.... but when I looked for links on Chicago. Legacy cities have more older even Class C office buildings to convert. Big trend just a few years ago Chicago one city.... was old office towers even landmarked to new boutique hotels. Even starting in the 80s 90s. Chicago's blocks of Printers Row of old legacy landmark office buildings... were converted to Loft Living.
DC was always different. Cannot go too high in new space and huge government space. So it is going to be a bit different. Probably in LA it is also the OLDER office buildings getting conversion to residential. Some do not realize there still is the OLDER section of LA with Grand early 20th century early skyscrapers that survived earthquakes and the declines. Very Majestic as it is a Legacy city also.
From a (Nov 2021) link listing cities with total conversion.
Title: "The top 10 cities turning old office buildings into apartments—take a look inside".
1. Washington, D.C.
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 1,091
Average rent in the city: $2,160 per month.
2. Chicago
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 1,020
Average rent in the city: $2,059 per month.
3. Alexandria, Virginia
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 955
Average rent in the city: $1,902 per month.
4. Los Angeles
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 904
Average rent in the city: $2,518 per month.
5. Cleveland
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 652
Average rent in the city: $1,172 per month.
6. Philadelphia
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 591
Average rent in the city: $1,736 per month.
7. Honolulu
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 571
Average rent in the city: $1,943 per month.
9. Union, New Jersey
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 415
Average rent in the city: $1,557 per month
10. Hyattsville, Maryland
Number of office-to-apartment conversions: 338
Average rent in the city: $1,580 per month.
SO Seems giving DC and Alexandria combined is king of conversions. Definitely not a bad thing.
Our Legacy cities with going back thru all the 20th century of early office buildings HAS BEEN RIPE and ongoing for years especially if they were Class C office space vs A Class. Just Covid helped spur another increase in our cities and DC has always been different......
A city as Chicago actually had a lull in new office towers for years before Covid and 3 planned before tower 50+stories of All offices ...did go up.
Recently Chicago after a long lull got 1 2 3 bang effect of 3 new all office towers in the Loop. 50+ story Bank of America Tower probably complete. BMO Tower topped out 50+ stories and Sales Force Tower 60+ stories not topped out yet. That influx during Covid yet. Not hearing a big jump currently in Chicago even with still higher unleased %s big new towers add.
Chicago's - West Loop is getting Office buildings now and yet. Just smaller ones. It is the core areas booming area currently in residential especially. Former warehousing and meat-packing district.
MDAllstar: Which Philly-area developer? I don't have access to a subscription that allows access to all of ACBJ's publications — just the Philadelphia Business Journal.
Doesn't surprise me one bit that COVID is accelerating the pace of office-to-residential conversions. But right now in Philadelphia, it looks to me like new multifamily construction continues to outdo conversions in Center City. Two projects are now underway at opposite corners of the same block, and a third corner of this block is also slated to get a high-rise multifamily building, for instance.
I'd be curious to see what said developer is up to hereabouts.
The article says the buildings were purchased by Philadelphia’s Post Brothers. What do you know about them? Center City has become the behemoth that it is because it continues to add residential. Downtown DC has always been considered a top 6 downtown, but I feared overtime, it would lose that status as other downtown’s around the nation builtout their footprint. Because of the impact COVID has had on the office market, downtown DC has a chance to not only remain in the top 6, it could move up in the ranking. It will depend how much residential space it adds. Retail will also change with all the new residential space.
DC has over 130 million sq. feet of office space. That is just crazy to think about. Can you imagine if even half of that is converted to residential how many people could live in downtown DC. This is just some random math:
If a rough estimate of 65,000,000 square feet of office space is converted to residential in downtown DC. If we use an average of 250,000 sq. feet of office space per building which can hold an average of 250 units, downtown DC would produce 65,000 multi-family housing units. At 1.5 people per household, that comes to 97,500 additional people living in downtown DC.
These guys are sharp as tacks, know how to lard on the amenities in their projects, and are pros at selling the sizzle as well as the steak. I've been a fan of theirs ever since the Goldtex flap, which I mention in the article — Philadephia's construction trade unions have an absolutely, positively horrendous track record of bringing nonwhites into the skilled-trades pipeline. (To give you an idea how far back this goes: the first "affirmative action" plan of the type the Right loves to criticize was a Nixon Administration proposal called the "Philadelphia Plan" that set "goals and timetables" for increasing representation in the construction trades other than the Laborers, who occupy the bottom rung of the construction-trade ladder and were, and remain, overwhelmingly Black.)
An example of their salesmanship, nimbleness and wit: When the company was renovating the landmark Presidential City complex next to the City Avenue interchange on the Schuylkill Expressway, the unions ringed the complex with lawn signs reading "Do Not Rent Here." Post Prothers interspersed them with signs reading "You'll Never Want to Leave."
Center City has become the behemoth that it is because it continues to add residential. Downtown DC has always been considered a top 6 downtown, but I feared overtime, it would lose that status as other downtown’s around the nation builtout their footprint. Because of the impact COVID has had on the office market, downtown DC has a chance to not only remain in the top 6, it could move up in the ranking. It will depend how much residential space it adds. Retail will also change with all the new residential space.
DC has over 130 million sq. feet of office space. That is just crazy to think about. Can you imagine if even half of that is converted to residential how many people could live in downtown DC. This is just some random math:
If a rough estimate of 65,000,000 square feet of office space is converted to residential in downtown DC. If we use an average of 250,000 sq. feet of office space per building which can hold an average of 250 units, downtown DC would produce 65,000 multi-family housing units. At 1.5 people per household, that comes to 97,500 additional people living in downtown DC.
Just curious: do you really think that half the office space in Downtown DC will be converted to residential? I will wager that most if not all of the Class B and C space will, but I'm not so sure that there will be a lot of Class A space conversions.
If you do get an additional 97,500 people living in Downtown DC, that would be the equivalent of giving it steroids — the Downtown DC population would rise nearly tenfold, based on what numbers I can scrounge up (I'd appreciate it if you could supply me with figures from the two BIDs that cover it, for the figures I can find easily placed the population of downtown DC in 2010 at under 10,000). It would also propel DC into the ranks of the five most populous downtowns in the country (Philadelphia's ranks second). Given that downtown DC still has a problem with a lack of street activity after working hours, this would also give a great boost to Downtown DC's vibrancy.
These guys are sharp as tacks, know how to lard on the amenities in their projects, and are pros at selling the sizzle as well as the steak. I've been a fan of theirs ever since the Goldtex flap, which I mention in the article — Philadephia's construction trade unions have an absolutely, positively horrendous track record of bringing nonwhites into the skilled-trades pipeline. (To give you an idea how far back this goes: the first "affirmative action" plan of the type the Right loves to criticize was a Nixon Administration proposal called the "Philadelphia Plan" that set "goals and timetables" for increasing representation in the construction trades other than the Laborers, who occupy the bottom rung of the construction-trade ladder and were, and remain, overwhelmingly Black.)
An example of their salesmanship, nimbleness and wit: When the company was renovating the landmark Presidential City complex next to the City Avenue interchange on the Schuylkill Expressway, the unions ringed the complex with lawn signs reading "Do Not Rent Here." Post Prothers interspersed them with signs reading "You'll Never Want to Leave."
Just curious: do you really think that half the office space in Downtown DC will be converted to residential? I will wager that most if not all of the Class B and C space will, but I'm not so sure that there will be a lot of Class A space conversions.
If you do get an additional 97,500 people living in Downtown DC, that would be the equivalent of giving it steroids — the Downtown DC population would rise nearly tenfold, based on what numbers I can scrounge up (I'd appreciate it if you could supply me with figures from the two BIDs that cover it, for the figures I can find easily placed the population of downtown DC in 2010 at under 10,000). It would also propel DC into the ranks of the five most populous downtowns in the country (Philadelphia's ranks second). Given that downtown DC still has a problem with a lack of street activity after working hours, this would also give a great boost to Downtown DC's vibrancy.
That's great to hear about Post Brothers. I'm sure they will do an amazing job with those two office buildings.
As for downtown DC, I'm not sure how many office buildings will be converted to residential in DC. The market will decide that. There seems to be an article about it often though. This is from yesterday:
Developers are also building a lot of new Class A office space in Ward 7 and Ward 8 to accommodate the 37,000 DC government employees that will be relocating east of the river due to the mayor's executive order and her east of the river leasing strategy to promote economic development there. Those include St. Elizabeth East, Parkside, Northeast Heights, Bridge District, Historic Anacostia, and Skyland Town Center. Their relocation will leave a lot of vacant office space west of the river so there will be plenty of office space to convert for years to come in addition to organic leased space contraction happening.
As for downtown DC population, I don't know how to calculate it because downtown DC covers multiple neighborhoods. Which neighborhoods are you looking at?
Penn Quarter?
Mt. Vernon Triangle?
NOMA?
Northwest One?
Golden Triangle?
Logan Circle?
Dupont Circle?
West End?
Foggy Bottom?
Midtown?
East End?
Union Market?
SW Federal Center?
I don't know where to start unless we look at census tracts. All these neighborhoods are connected. I remember seeing a study in the past that used a radius from city hall. Maybe something like that?
As for downtown DC population, I don't know how to calculate it because downtown DC covers multiple neighborhoods. Which neighborhoods are you looking at?
Penn Quarter?
Mt. Vernon Triangle?
NOMA?
Northwest One?
Golden Triangle?
Logan Circle?
Dupont Circle?
West End?
Foggy Bottom?
Midtown?
East End?
Union Market?
SW Federal Center?
I don't know where to start unless we look at census tracts. All these neighborhoods are connected. I remember seeing a study in the past that used a radius from city hall. Maybe something like that?
I think there's a demographer out there that is using a two-mile radius from the city hall as a standardized metric for comparing downtown populations, and it's probably as good a standardized metric as one can get.
Some others use the territory encompassed in a downtown business improvement district or defined by that district as the "downtown" for this purpose. This map shows what the DowntownDC BID considers "downtown" DC; I've also seen at least one source that expands that territory to include the area in which the Golden Triangle BID operates.
I'm pretty sure of this much: were we to add up the population of all the areas you list above, all of which I believe would be included in a definition of "downtown DC" analogous to the Center City District's definition of "Greater Center City" — which includes not only Center City proper but also the territory between the rivers to its north (as far as Girard Avenue) and south (as far as Tasker Street) — you'd get a figure closer to 100,000 than 10,000, and probably higher than 100,000 as well. (For purposes of comparison, some 202,000 people live in "Greater Center City," with nearly 70,000 of those living in Center City itself.)
I think there's a demographer out there that is using a two-mile radius from the city hall as a standardized metric for comparing downtown populations, and it's probably as good a standardized metric as one can get.
If we are using a two mile radius of city hall the ranking is proabably going to look something likes this...
1. NYC
2. Philly
3. Chicago
4. SF
5. Boston
6. LA
7. DC
8. Miami
9. Seattle
10. Baltimore
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