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projecting to 2018 is difficult let alone 30-40 years
It seems that it's hard to project 2-3 years even with your prediction in 2011 seeming to be completely wrong. Construction sites stop in their tracks.....lol Wishful thinking......
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
I am also curious what the impacts of a 1.5 Billion reduction in Federal funding to the Metro PT system will do to all the growth. I fear like many other areas of the country during the economic downturn; some constructions sites may just stop in their tracks.
First of all, who said the office would be converted? LOL....you people...
I said it would be nice to convert 75 million of the 142 million in office space downtown to residential. I wonder about you guys sometimes.
Let me ask you....
So, Kidphilly.....do you think demand is low in downtown D.C. for rental units?
I'm having a hard freaking time finding ANY CITY where demand is low in downtown for residential units. Shoot, shrinking cities that are losing population are still ADDING population in their downtown's. People on here need to stick to what they know. Whatever people do for a living, they need to stick to that. If you're a fireman, be a fireman. If you're an accountant, be an accountant. If you're a lawyer, be lawyer. This is starting to get embarrassing for some of these people.
In fact, I remember asking you, KidPhilly what the unemployment rate would be here in D.C. in year 2013/2014 about three years ago with the coming apocalypse of government cutbacks. You estimated it would be over 10% I believe. I'll try to find it.
LOL....Doom and Gloom......
Not sure exactly what I said but said with a cutback in spend DC could see higher unemployment - still could - guess we will see
I dont think we have seen large cut backs - they are likely still coming IMHO
on demand yes its there but I am also saying you can project current demand out that far - you believe you can, history would suggest otherwise
It seems that it's hard to project 2-3 years even with your prediction in 2011 seeming to be completely wrong. Construction sites stop in their tracks.....lol Wishful thinking......
Wishful thinking? No but with a cutback in spend dont think demand can keep up - these are basic principles
And there is no reason to think that cant happen - DC is on a roll but the rate of build opens up issues in a downturn in the local economy. If you dont believe that is a possibility then ok
DC has not always grown at the current rate nor will it
According to Cassidy Turley Q3 2013 Data & Bureau of Labor Statistics Aug 2013 Data and Bureau of Economic Analysis MSA GDP Data 2013
New York-Long Island-Westchester-Fairfield Office Market: 671 Million square feet
Northern New Jersey Office Market: 91 Million square feet
Total New York-Northern NJ-Long Island-MSA GDP: $1.358 Trillion
Total New York-Northern NJ-Long Island MSA Office Space: 762 Million sq ft
Total New York-Northern NJ-Long Island MSA Employed Persons: 8.928 Million
and so...
Sq ft of office Space Per Employee: Washington DC 141 sq ft New York MSA 85 sq ft
San Francisco & San Jose MSAs Combined 66 sq ft
Economic Productivity Per Square Foot:
San Francisco & San Jose MSAs Combined $2,632 New York MSA $1,782
Washington DC MSA $1,053
Wishful thinking? No but with a cutback in spend dont think demand can keep up - these are basic principles
And there is no reason to think that cant happen - DC is on a roll but the rate of build opens up issues in a downturn in the local economy. If you dont believe that is a possibility then ok
DC has not always grown at the current rate nor will it
D.C. is actually adding jobs. The problem has been the loss of government jobs which will not last forever. Keep in mind, a lot of the shedding in the Federal government has been through retirement without backfilling. Once the government levels off from shedding jobs, the statistical gains will be substantial. Tech and health are booming in D.C. and they are both growing at an exceptional rate. Every year, we leave the government behind a little more. Can't wait for 2030 to see how far we have distanced ourselves from the Federal government.
Not sure what to take on this metric - Philly would probably look good per sq foot because it is lower in sq footage - not sure that would be accurate as offices are by no means the only aspect that generate gdp
maybe intellectually interesting but am really unsure how to make any comparison of relevance on that stat to be honest
either way office sq footage in absolutes is a good marker for many aspects
DC also proportionally to NYC, SF or even moreso compared to Philly for example have a much more proportional white colar workforce and output
D.C. is actually adding jobs. The problem has been the loss of government jobs which will not last forever. Keep in mind, a lot of the shedding in the Federal government has been through retirement without backfilling. Once the government levels off from shedding jobs, the statistical gains will be substantial. Tech and health are booming in D.C. and they are both growing at an exceptional rate. Every year, we leave the government behind a little more. Can't wait for 2030 to see how far we have distanced ourselves from the Federal government.
Not sure what to take on this metric - Philly would probably look good per sq foot because it is lower in sq footage - not sure that would be accurate as offices are by no means the only aspect that generate gdp
maybe intellectually interesting but am really unsure how to make any comparison of relevance on that stat to be honest
either way office sq footage in absolutes is a good marker for many aspects
DC also proportionally to NYC, SF or even moreso compared to Philly for example have a much more proportional white colar workforce and output
Very good point. Unless he took only white collar employees and divided that by the office space, we can just throw this stat out. Also, unless we are using GDP for white collar jobs and office space only, we can throw that out.
Wow Kidphilly, you singlehandedly completely crucified this guy’s assessment.
Didn't expect you to agree or also hope D.C. will pull away from the federal government. In reading the thread I got the 1.5 billion dollar post from, I was reminded about the many things you said about D.C. in the past. Pretty telling when you read it 3 years later.......
While we're not on the scale that some of the other cities listed are, I think Seattle is developing at a decent clip right now.
-Removal of Alaskan Way viaduct and replacement with deep bore tunnel (utilizing larged tunnel boring machine ever produced); this will result in opening up and redevelopment of waterfront downtown
-first of (3) 500' towers for Amazon's Rufus 2.0 campus downtown under construction; 3 million SF total when completed
-More residential units under construction than any city besides Houston (over 8,000 units U/C or permitted). This is being fueled by largest rental rate gains in the country.
-(2) 440' apartment buildings U/C; (1) 300' U/C; several in 400+' range plans being dusted off and permitted
-twin tower 440' Insignia Condos U/C
-660' 5th and Columbia office tower and SLS hotel to start in October
-500' convention center hotel proposed, will be largest in Seattle
-Largest T.O.D. on the west coast being developed at Centurylink Field's North Lot
-LINK Light Rail subway stations being completed at Capitol Hill and the University District, which are two of the most densely populated areas of the city
-LINK Light Rail extensions north to Northgate/Lynnwood and east to Bellevue/Redmond and major employment centers in planning stages. Funded (except for Lynnwood extension which is looking for federal funds)
-First Hill street car completion nearing; will link hospitals and First Hill with a redeveloping Yesler Terrace and King St. Station, Pioneer Square, and stadiums
-NBA/NHL stadium still going through final design review processes
-Apartment/hotel towers U/C in Bellevue with (5) tower addition to Bellevue Square getting ready to move ahead.
Will add links and photos later. Things are pretty busy right now in our little city.
And that Alaskan Way/Hwy 99 project has resulted in a torn up South Lake Union/Seattle Center area that will completely transform and re-invigorate that part of town. In the meantime, the traffic is horrendous. But I can't wait for it to be finished in two years!
Light Rail will be under construction here (various routes) until 2023.
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