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Mexico City, New York, or Toronto: Which one is most likely to get surpassed or at least pushed this century?
Mexico City, New York, and Toronto are each the #1 city in each of their respective countries of Mexico, the United States, and Canada.
However, the exact extent that they are dominant in their respective countries remains questionable and subject to debate. Given what you know of the three cities, which city will have the hardest time maintaining its #1 status in its country this century? This doesn't necessarily mean that any of them get surpassed but just which one gets pushed the hardest by whatever the #2 city is in each of their countries. All 3 of these cities own a gauntlet of factors that make them the undisputed #1 in their country, but what are the chances of that diminishing in the future as other cities steal more shares from the national pie?
Feel free to use quantifiable factors such as population, economy, influence on social trends, influence on politics, trade, concentration of wealth, or overall reputation and/or branding as methods for this discussion. You can use metropolitan area for some of the factors if needed, or you can just do whatever, makes no difference to me really.
On a personal note, I would go with Mexico City being the least likely to get surpassed by any other city in Mexico. The only way I can see that happening is if a meteor fell from outer space onto Mexico City, thus eradicating every bit and trace of the city in its entirety and one of either Guadalajara, Monterrey, or Puebla inheriting all of Mexico City's functions. Mexico City is just too far ahead of the #2 city in Mexico, just too far ahead and in almost every single facet at that.
In contrast to the situation in Mexico, I can't really distinguish the situation enough for Canada and the United States. For instance, New York is #1 in so many ways in the United States but not number one in every way and the gap between it and Los Angeles is 5 million people and shrinking each year by a little. However, despite that New York maintains a GDP that's just shy of being nearly 2X Los Angeles' which indicates that it is in no threat of being surpassed in stature in the United States, even if the population gap between New York and Los Angeles continues to narrow further into the future.
Toronto is interesting, it is the most recent of the three to take over its country and it still remains questionable to what extent Toronto has become this force that influences and drives most of Canada. I believe it was the 1970s when Toronto displaced Montreal to become Canada's #1 and in the time period since then it has continued putting distance between itself and Montreal. However, no telling if that's enough for Toronto to be safe and not have to deal with the threat of being surpassed one day.
I guess it begs asking, is Los Angeles more of a formidable foe for New York than Montreal is of Toronto, or is the situation in reverse where Montreal is a more formidable foe against Toronto than Los Angeles is against New York?
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I don't think it's very likely at all for any of the three North American countries. The factors that went in to making Mexico City, Toronto, and NYC what they aren't likely to repeat themselves in the future.
The only way it could happen is through some sort of massive annexation that would be seen as patently ridiculous. For example, the city that could it's way in theory to being larger than NYC is Los Angeles (it isn't at all politically viable) and they would have to annex most of Los Angeles county's 4058 square miles.
So yeah, I don't think it's likely at all.
What is more likely though is that something catastrophic happens that causes people to leave one of those cities en masse, thus causing the second largest city in that country to become #1.
No one's passing NYC or Mexico City anytime soon. Toronto is already pretty closely followed by Montreal and Vancouver, so it's not like it is dominant.
I don't think it's very likely at all for any of the three North American countries. The factors that went in to making Mexico City, Toronto, and NYC what they aren't likely to repeat themselves in the future.
The only way it could happen is through some sort of massive annexation that would be seen as patently ridiculous. For example, the city that could it's way in theory to being larger than NYC is Los Angeles (it isn't at all politically viable) and they would have to annex most of Los Angeles county's 4058 square miles.
So yeah, I don't think it's likely at all.
What is more likely though is that something catastrophic happens that causes people to leave one of those cities en masse, thus causing the second largest city in that country to become #1.
Yes. The only realistic scenario is some natural disaster or other climate-related event such as rising sea levels, or maybe a combination of both. I do think that NYC is most at risk geographically than the other 2. NYC is built on a series of islands that sit directly on the ocean and various other bodies of water. Rising sea levels are going to be a huge challenge for NY in the future. And we’re prone to hurricanes too which doesn’t help with that.
Mexico City is at risk for earthquakes. Toronto seems like a place that is very safe from natural disasters.
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