[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by CTweddingDJ

Cam are you seeing heat again for early October? Saw some maps on twitter that looked awful for us.

The ultimate for that would be a 90+ degree day. 90+ degree days in October is one of the strangest patterns in our local weather, using Central Park's long record while they have actually had several of them, they all occurred in a narrow 14 year range from 1927-1941 (peaking at 94 degrees on October 5, 1941; the 90 the next day is the last time this has happened).

To make it even stranger, I read somewhere that after that it has only even been above 85 in October just twice, 88 on October 22, 1979 and 87 on October 8, 2007 (interestingly BDR was 89 that day.....BDR with a record only going back to 1948 has never been 90+ in October.....in fact October 15, 1975 is their latest in the year reading of 80 or above and the only other October reading above 85 was 86 on October 6, 1997).

So barring something really historic we still won't be as warm as now come October.

[Cambium]

In October I don't think we should be looking for 80s to call it warm... Our normal highs will be in the low-mid 60s so 70s will be very warm for October.


Today... We had our Highest temp in the last 7 days but 3rd lowest dew point in last 7 days. (Hit 45F on the 15th)

Dry warmth is tolerable especially knowing dry coolness is coming in 3 days!


Today wasn't too bad except in the sun!

IEM :: Site Meteorograms

[Cambium]

This map is based off nws forecasts..

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/st...51547891154944

[Cambium]

Euro 00z flipped and went to GFS showing continued cool for 7 days. We'll see if it flips again.


See the difference compared to previous Euro image? Look at the 850mb column. Air mass aloft stays in single digits (C°) except for Tuesday only

[Cambium]

Drought update September 22, 2016:

The extreme and Severe drought areas remain the same as last week. No change.
The abnormally dry or moderate drought areas increased 1-2%.

It's pretty much only Southern New England and Western NY that's to watch, the rest is no big deal. Dry and rain can be used but wont take much to get back to normal..

But again.. even across state of CT with a "severe" drought status, there are no mandatory restrictions yet so even severe drought area is no big deal...yet... Hope the pattern changes soon. This feels longer than usual now.

Interesting Maine and Delaware have the highest percent of normal areas not in drought. Rain been missing to south and north.

Also interesting in bolded red below... No response to rivers yet from the recent rainfall


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Regiona....aspx?northeast

National Drought Summary for September 20, 2016


Summary

During the past 7-days, frequent frontal activity helped to ensure heavy rainfall (2 inches or greater) over portions of the Midwest, the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, the southern Plains, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, and the Pacific Northwest. The Southern Atlantic Coast region also received areas of heavy rainfall due to the slow passage and subsequent meandering of Tropical Storm Julia. Drought remains entrenched over the southern Appalachians vicinity, parts of the Northeast/eastern Great Lakes region, the northern Plains, and much of the West.

The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and eastern Great Lakes region

A stationary front draped across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts on Monday brought heavy rainfall (2-4 inches) to the area. This resulted in widespread removal of abnormal dryness (D0) across southern New Jersey, most of the Delmarva Peninsula, and the Tidewater region of Southeast Virginia. East of the Potomac River, in Prince Georges County, MD, rainfall amounts between 1.0-2.5 inches warranted the removal of D0 in that area. Rainfall associated with frontal passages prompted a 1-category improvement across southern Cattaraugus County in southwestern New York state, which shows up on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) 7-day observed precipitation map as southwest to northeast-oriented swaths of heavier rain. In contrast, where precipitation amounts and stream flow levels have been low, D0 was expanded to include portions of northern and western Maryland, and south-central Pennsylvania. In the Lower Hudson Valley of southeastern New York, which missed out on recent rainfall, moderate drought (D1) was expanded across Dutchess and Putnam Counties. The Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) clearly shows the magnitude of the drought across southern New England, adjacent southeastern New York, and central Pennsylvania. Despite some portions of eastern New England receiving heavy rainfall in the past 3 or 4 days (some in a very short period of time), no changes were rendered to the area’s drought depiction. With the entrenched drought in place, it’s tempting to introduce short-term improvements to the depiction, but it is too early to tell what the integrated effects will be regarding parameters such as soil moisture (how much moisture actually soaks into the soil, as opposed to running off), stream flow rises/falls, etc.. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream flow gauges indicate there has not yet been a response to the recent heavy rainfall in eastern Massachusetts, for example, with most gauges at or below the 10th percentile.

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (September 22-26), most dryness or drought areas east of the Mississippi River are not expected to receive significant rainfall. Beneficial rain is, however, forecast for some areas west of the Mississippi River, including the southern Plains (2-3 inches), and from the northern High Plains and northern Rockies southward across northern Utah (1.5 to locally as much as 6.0 inches). During the 6-10 day period, September 27-October 1, odds favor above-median precipitation across the south-central contiguous U.S., peninsular Florida, and the Upper Mississippi Valley/Dakotas region. Odds favor below-median precipitation for portions of the mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, northern Georgia, and eastern parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Below-median precipitation is also favored for most areas west of the eastern slopes of the Rockies.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Euro 00z flipped and went to GFS showing continued cool for 7 days. We'll see if it flips again.


See the difference compared to previous Euro image? Look at the 850mb column. Air mass aloft stays in single digits (C°) except for Tuesday only

Can you post this in Fahrenheit?

[Cambium]

Latest GFS12z for Danbury..in F°


next chance of drizzle... tomorrow afternoon.
Next chance of rain.. Next Friday.. GEES! And that's been flip flopping with nothing or something.


Looks like no more 80s after tomorrow for next 16 days. Couple of 70s but mostly 50s and 60s coming up.


No more dew points in the 60s after tomorrow?? FINALLY!


Remember, these numbers aren't the max/min so drop or add a few degrees to each for the in between the hours.

[Cambium]

Is it me or do you get the feeling we wont be quiet for too much longer and that it might actually get loud?


Lets hope by loud I don't mean with the wave coming off Africa today. (Would become Matthew)

[CTweddingDJ]

I always feel like weather balances out so I think we are def due for something crazy. Maybe even snow in late October!

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Latest GFS12z for Danbury..in F°


next chance of drizzle... tomorrow afternoon.
Next chance of rain.. Next Friday.. GEES! And that's been flip flopping with nothing or something.


Looks like no more 80s after tomorrow for next 16 days. Couple of 70s but mostly 50s and 60s coming up.


No more dew points in the 60s after tomorrow?? FINALLY!


Remember, these numbers aren't the max/min so drop or add a few degrees to each for the in between the hours.

Thanks