[Solstodur]

Trend has not been kind to us today. Looking like more of a "strung out mess" if you are looking at this verbatim. However, looking at the H5 vorts, there's still a lot of "play" in the models, still cannot rule out a big storm IMO.

[ryanthegoldengod]

Originally Posted by Cambium

GFS. Boom. West shift again. Blizzard in CT
Saturday evening.

That settles it. Milk and bread run here I come. I predict 59 nches.

[Cambium]

Lack of posts = Model Blah.
or just too busy. But this time that's not the case. lol Euro last night was "blah". Today again was "blah" and rest of models shifted back east.

[in_newengland]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Lack of posts = Model Blah.
or just too busy. But this time that's not the case. lol Euro last night was "blah". Today again was "blah" and rest of models shifted back east.

Good. I finally have some plans to get away for a few days and would not appreciate a blizzard or ice/snow on any of the roads. Time to buy flowers and get ready for spring if I could have my way!

[Muxim]

You should follow Ryan H on Twitter you guys would get along great...

[Cambium]

Will it be one of those times this thing shifts 150 miles 24hrs before?

Doesnt take much. To be honest, Id rather a storm miss us to the East than to the west of us. I hate rain in winter!

https://twitter.com/MPalmerTWC/statu...34115271401472

[Cambium]

See the "L's"?? Those are all the individual members of the Euro showing where the storm will be 7pm Saturday.

Looks like a lot of them are close enough for snow. Still so many different results

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/st...32054014177280

[Cambium]

Short Range model "NAM" is in range now but its still considered long range for this model itself.


Latest update says CT coast will see snow Saturday morning. 991mb storm off the coast.


One of those events where NJ, Long Island and MA capes could see more than CT

[Cambium]

Anyone notice the amount of dry sunshine days past couple weeks?


Regarding Saturday... Interesting in blue. Important in black. Energy for this event is still over British Colombia which we don't get data from. Once that gets closer, models get better with details

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
409 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Saturday ... large scale/synoptic flow favors a progressive/unphased
and offshore track given lack of downstream/high latitude blocking
along with very fast flow upstream across the CONUS. New 00z
guidance (both deterministic and ensembles) support this outcome,
with just a glancing blow to southeast MA. In addition airmass is
very marginal to support snow so likely mixing with or changing to
rain. Surface temps also marginal for accumulating snow. Thus
overall the threat for significant accumulating snow remains very
low.

Although it is worth noting about 10 of the 50 members from the
00z Euro ensembles are fairly big hits for southern New England.
This has been consistent from previous ensemble runs. So while
significant snows are unlikely (reasons mentioned above) it is a non
zero probability. Thus still too early (84+ hrs away) to completely
dismiss.

Will have to continue watching until better model
clustering occurs especially ensembles. Jet energy of interest is
currently still offshore of BC, an area lacking aircraft
data/traffic and obviously sounding data. Will be interesting to see
if any change in trends occur as it comes onshore with today`s 12z
run and especially following 00z model runs.

[Solstodur]

12z ICON now showing a cutter for Feb 6th. this winter sucks