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Well, that would certainly be a comfort if they have a perp in mind that they're following up on.
On the other hand, it's unusual to think that one man had a beef against another, and decided to brutally kill him along with 3 pretty girls.
Not typical. But at any rate, it would be nice to have this solved.
Yeah, I didn't say I thought it was anything like that scenario. I was simply agreeing with the poster who said he thinks LE likely has a suspect in their sights and isn't broadcasting it until their case is as solid as possible, as indicated in the bolded text of the post you're quoting. Forensics on something like this isn't going to be a quick process.
Last edited by Metlakatla; 11-26-2022 at 10:28 PM..
There are 1000+ murders in the US alone that occur with a knife (or other cutting instrument). So the fact that there was a similar murder in another state in another year.....isn't really that surprising.
But we will likely find that the suspect IS linked to some other violent crimes. It's pretty unlikely that someone's first violent act would be stabbing four people to death.
My thought is that that have a DNA profile, or perhaps a few profiles. But they haven't been able to match the DNA. They could perhaps reach a short list if they could exclude certain profiles. But that's difficult given that many students left the town more than a week ago, and won't come back any time soon.
It can't be ignored that police have been under enormous scrutiny in the past few years. If they name a suspect before they are certain, and that person is hounded by the press and amateur sleuths, the consequences could be dire for the suspect, and the Moscow police may lose public trust entirely. Given that such suspects may be young adults living far from parents to guide them and on their own for the first time, I don't think the general public would forgive the police if an innocent person were hounded to death (perhaps literally) because their name was released prematurely.
Understand, Law Enforcement knows a great deal simply from the knife wounds alone.
01) Type of knife
02) Single attacker vs multiple attackers (note a highly skilled person could fake multiple assailants)
03) The skill level of the attacker:
-- unskilled
-- fisherman
-- small game hunter
-- large game hunter
-- standard military training
-- special forces training
-- knife fighting expertise
04) Order of killing
05) Mental state of the attacker
06) Size, approximate weight or musculature of assailant
Last edited by PossumMan; 11-27-2022 at 12:40 AM..
Understand, Law Enforcement knows a great deal simply from the knife wounds alone.
01) Type of knife
02) Single attacker vs multiple attackers (note a highly skilled person could fake multiple assailants)
03) The skill level of the attacker:
-- unskilled
-- fisherman
-- small game hunter
-- large game hunter
-- standard military training
-- special forces training
-- knife fighting expertise
04) Order of killing
05) Mental state of the attacker
06) Size, approximate weight or musculature of assailant
The idea that being a hunter makes a person a more likely suspect for these killings is fallacious. A hunter can do all the field dressing of a deer or other animal that he needs to do with an ordinary pocket knife if he then takes it to a commercial processor, as so many do.
The idea that being a hunter makes a person a more likely suspect for these killings is fallacious. A hunter can do all the field dressing of a deer or other animal that he needs to do with an ordinary pocket knife if he then takes it to a commercial processor, as so many do.
I don't think the post was implying that. It was just giving all the possibilities of the skill level of anyone who may use a knife which included unskilled--they do not typically use it at all. I would imagine that the idea of a hunter being more likely a murderer suspect does not hold much water (of course, I have not done any research into the topic. To me though, hunting is a very popular hobby. I think just about every male--and many females--and I would take a guess at saying that the percentage is a good deal over 50% in the rural areas of my home state of Pennsylvania-- are hunters. The percentage of the entire population of rural Pennsylvania being murderers I would imagine would not even reach a full 1%. This is all speculation of course, based on my social perception, layperson reading and an educated person's guess). I of course could be wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianRavenwood
But we will likely find that the suspect IS linked to some other violent crimes. It's pretty unlikely that someone's first violent act would be stabbing four people to death.
My thought is that that have a DNA profile, or perhaps a few profiles.
It's strange that some news cast I was listening to (would not be able to find it now) stated just that--that the investigators were thinking this act was the murderer's first killing. I found that to be implausible too, if just for the fact that the crime was so high-risk and that he was able to kill four people while there were six in the house (and I don't think that fact that the others did not wake up was suspicious. The sleep very well may have been chemically enhanced by alcohol or maybe a sleeping medication. Which is likely why the other two girls didn't wake up when the couple were being murdered. Of course, unless it was more than one murderer. I thought I recall that the two girls were on the third floor and the couple was on the second? Also I don't think it is odd that the first floor girls were left unharmed because I saw a diagram of the floors in the house and from the entrance from the sliding glass doors it looks like that is the first floor; the actual first floor looks like it could be a basement because of the lay of the ground. The murderer may not have been aware of any bedrooms there. If he was aware of it, he may have murdered them too perhaps).
I can't imagine them not having the murderer's DNA. Blood or skin or hair, at least one of those things would almost certainly have been left behind by the murderer. The one girl having defensive wounds, we can only hope that she got a swipe at the murderer and was able to collect his skin under her fingernails. Which if they do find any, that may be an indication that the murderer is inexperienced then, perhaps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClaraC
On the other hand, it's unusual to think that one man had a beef against another, and decided to brutally kill him along with 3 pretty girls.
I hadn't thought about that, but that's yet another indication to me that this isn't just some personal revenge crime. Very unusual one, if it turns out to be. It just strikes me as some horribly sick individual that gets a thrill out of murdering.
And yes, knife crimes are very common. Yet the MO of this and the other murder in Oregon are compelling. You have the one serial killer, the Night Stalker who did just about the same thing. Could be a copycat. I'm thinking there's a chance they're connected. Wouldn't be surprised if they're not, but there sure seems to be a good possibility that it is (as in almost anything is possible, but some things you throw out because it's not even worth it. I don't feel that this is not worth looking into. And like one guy mentioned recently, that murderer is almost certainly not hanging around the area. I haven't looked into it, but it could be that not a few serial killers drift. In this day and age of more and more cameras and people being suspicious, it would be an even more vital thing to do for a murderer to not be detected to do just that).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bette
Could be a woman.
Definitely possible, but I would be very surprised at that. If I'm not mistaken most women murderers (and there are some exceptions for sure) kill out of personal revenge (just the one person they take offense to, like a spouse, lover or rival) and I don't think a knife is the usual weapon. Definitely could be wrong about that, it's just based on my layperson's perusal of some crimes. A woman slashing four people would be a striking anomaly; she may be a first (at least all four at once). Do any of you crime buffs know of any woman murderer who killed four people with a knife or other cutting instrument at once?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suburban_Guy
There's a rumor going around on a Reddit thread about this case that there was video evidence from a Ring doorbell and that the individual seen on that video was identified by some frat brothers.
Yeah, I was really hoping there would be surveillance footage somewhere. I wish just about everyone who could afford it would have Ring doorbells or some other such equipment that records video. I hope that stuff will start becoming more affordable since it appears to be such a huge help I think in either deterring crime or identifying criminals. Hoping the rumor turns into something vital. Wish someday doorbell cameras would surveillance residential streets everywhere (and that people would have them in the front and backyards. Like they would be as common as locks on your door).
That's interesting. Before it was stated that it was believed that all four victims were asleep in their beds at the time of the murders. Now in this video she states that it is believed now that not all of the victims were in their beds. I thought I read or heard somewhere that Ethan was found in the hallway and I thought that was odd based on the first statement of them all being asleep. So yeah, that is something. Could definitely point to there being more than one murderer perhaps. I guess it could be that just the one guy was up; that could still make sense then that there was only one murderer. I just don't see it likely that there could be just one murderer if all of them were awake; but not all of them were probably.
Last edited by Basiliximab; 11-27-2022 at 05:00 AM..
This MO is bizarre - and the other one was identically bizarre. Someone breaks into a home in the we hours, and stabs some of the people in the home to death with a big knife.
With no real idea who that might be, after the investigations.
I'm a crime buff, and follow crime a lot, and this is weird. In both cases, weird.
Okay but as I said 800 people are killed on each day of the month in just one year. But these murders happened in two different years. So that would be a group of 1,600 murders in two years for the 13th of the month. Out of 1,600 murders is it really that hard to believe that two unrelated murders involved people being stabbed in bed? In a group that big I would be surprised if you couldn't find at least two people who were shot in bed, two who were strangled in bed etc.
Maybe it's a start, but it's going to take a lot more than that to prove this was the work of a serial killer IMHO. Now if they find more cases of people being stabbed in bed on the 13th of the month, that might change my mind. But it seems pretty unlikely.
One reason for not finding that suspect, is the two surviving girls that called more kids to come over before the police got there. Those kids that came over contaminated that scene.
Contrary to what you may see reported about the investigation taking time, here is why the chances of this case ever being solved are dropping every day.
30% of arrests are made in the first two days of a homicide investigation. They should at least have a suspect in the first 48 hours. It does not appear they have a suspect in this case even now.
50% of arrests are made in the first 10 days. This investigation is past 10 days now. That means at best there is a 50/50 chance this case will ever be solved.
After one year the chances of solving a homicide drops to just 5%.
But it's worse than that, FBI data shows that only 64.1% of homicides are ever solved. Which means the odds of this case being solved are already down to about 14% - 15%.
Time is not on the side of this investigation. This case is right on the verge of being solved, or never being solved. Unfortunately it's probably never going to be solved. But if it is to be solved, it had better happen in the next 2 weeks.
Quote:
A Washington Post examination of 8,000 homicide arrests across 25 major U.S. cities since 2007 found that in half of the cases, an arrest was made in 10 days or fewer.
The analysis underscores what police leaders and homicide experts have said about the passage of time working against detectives. But it also dispels the notion of a “48-hour rule” that most cases, if solved, are wrapped up in two days. Only 30 percent of the cases led to an arrest within that time frame, the analysis found. Two-thirds of arrests were made within one month. For cases that remained unsolved after one year, 5 percent ultimately led to an arrest.
Evidence collection and lab tests often delay an arrest beyond a couple days. “It’s probably more accurate to say that you had a suspect identified in the first 48 hours,” said Sgt. Greg Van Heyst, who supervises the Tampa Police Department homicide unit.
Contrary to what you may see reported about the investigation taking time, here is why the chances of this case ever being solved are dropping every day.
30% of arrests are made in the first two days of a homicide investigation. They should at least have a suspect in the first 48 hours. It does not appear they have a suspect in this case even now.
50% of arrests are made in the first 10 days. This investigation is past 10 days now. That means at best there is a 50/50 chance this case will ever be solved.
After one year the chances of solving a homicide drops to just 5%.
But it's worse than that, FBI data shows that only 64.1% of homicides are ever solved. Which means the odds of this case being solved are already down to about 14% - 15%.
Time is not on the side of this investigation. This case is right on the verge of being solved, or never being solved. Unfortunately it's probably never going to be solved. But if it is to be solved, it had better happen in the next 2 weeks.
Wow, so 50 years ago the murder clearance rate was 90%? Sounds like 50 years ago police put many innocent people away. Maybe a 64% clearance rate with all the modern equipment and lab work is about the best the police could do. That 90% seems like they found a perp and could pin it on him because of circumstantial evidence.
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But if it is to be solved, it had better happen in the next 2 weeks.
