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I know a girl who declined Hockaday 9th admission in March. I wonder if they are not going to fill that spot? Maybe they were expecting some not to accept.
By high school there is much more flexibility in the class sizes such that a school is unlikely to give out exactly as many offers as they have projected spaces. At the most popular schools like Hock or SMS maybe they are so confident of being a top choice that they do that, but even there, I would guess they average something under a 100% yield so each declined space may not result in another offer. But if they over enroll by a kid or two, they can usually manage that without much trouble. It’s much harder to be over enrolled at younger levels.
I think it has to be the case that all of them expect something less than 100% yield. No school is EVERYONE's first choice. There will be people who prefer coed who turn down St. Mark's and Hockaday, and people who prefer single-sex who turn down Greenhill. And people who realize they can't pay for each of those once they get their aid packages. People who want their kids to stay at the same school and only one child gets in. Etc. So, although the top schools likely have high yield, it would never be 100%. Google says the highest college yield is Stanford at 81.9%. Secondary schools could easily be higher because fewer choices, but nonetheless my assumption is there is some range that each school's acceptance falls within, varying by year - say 75-90% for the most in-demand school, depending on the year (I have no idea what it actually is, but it would vary within a range most years). It seems like it has to be the case that they then admit so that even if they have a high yield year, they won't oversubscribe. So if the range is 75-90%, and they want 24, they accept 26. If 24 accept, no wait list kids get in, even though 2 turned it down. But if it's a 75% year, and only 19-20 accept, then they have 4-5 wait list spots.
It's not impossible that the top schools occasionally get 100%, I guess, and if they do then they may accept exactly the number they want. But my guess would be that no school ever gets 100% at a entry year (obviously it's different in a year where they 1 spot), and that they all are pretty comfortable that they know the percent yield that they won't possibly be above, and thus can accept more than the number of spots they have - which would be consistent with the fact that the waitlists don't seem to move very much.
I wonder if a desire to have smaller class sizes this Fall will impact this at all. I've heard that schools are considering how they can reduce class sizes and spread kids out. DISD is considering alternating attendance days (yikes!). We are no longer at a private school, but our previous private school had larger class sizes than our current school. (Of course that depends on school). Just another factor to add in....
I can assure you that in lower entry grades (PreK, K), yield is at or around 100% at the top tier (e.g., Hockaday, St. Marks).
For SMS entry in grade 1-4 that is probably true. For preK entry for boys at Greenhill that’s probably also true. PreK for girls it’s highly likely that many kids apply at both Hockaday and Greenhill. So it’s highly unlikely that they achieve a yield of 100% because at least a few kids will get in to both. In recent years it is reported that a higher % of spots are going to children of alums or siblings so I am sure that keeps the yield high as well. I would guess at SMS/Hock/GH (and only those three schools) in the lowest years they only offer for the exact number of spaces they have, and rely on the waitlist fill out the odd space that becomes available here or there.
I wonder if a desire to have smaller class sizes this Fall will impact this at all. I've heard that schools are considering how they can reduce class sizes and spread kids out. DISD is considering alternating attendance days (yikes!). We are no longer at a private school, but our previous private school had larger class sizes than our current school. (Of course that depends on school). Just another factor to add in....
They are going to have to figure something out with schooling if they want to reopen the economy. People can't work if they don't have childcare and "Pay 30K to teach your own kid!" is hardly an effective advertising slogan. Some parents will do it hoping things will eventually go back to normal, but it is hard to imagine the privates are going to make it if they attempt alternate day schedules or long-term remote learning. For anyone still on the wait lists, I'm guessing some slots might open up in late summer if either of those "solutions" are pitched for the fall. Schools have already changed their payment options to allow for more flexibility and have extended payment deadlines. They are even reopening financial aid applications to entice people to stay.
Anyone have any updated information on how the current situation has affected private school enrollment for 2020-2021? I've seen some schools have rolled their deadlines for payment back, which presumably will roll back any waitlist movement. Are top schools actually seeing/anticipating seeing students leave (or admitted students decline to enroll) due to finances/the "Pay $30K to teach your own kid!" effect/other Covid reasons? I have friends considering pulling out of private school, but not sure how widespread that is.
Anyone have any updated information on how the current situation has affected private school enrollment for 2020-2021? I've seen some schools have rolled their deadlines for payment back, which presumably will roll back any waitlist movement. Are top schools actually seeing/anticipating seeing students leave (or admitted students decline to enroll) due to finances/the "Pay $30K to teach your own kid!" effect/other Covid reasons? I have friends considering pulling out of private school, but not sure how widespread that is.
Not sure how widespread it is either, but we live by all the top privates and I have seen a few posts on our neighborhood page asking for info about hiring a private tutor for the next school year.
Anyone have any updated information on how the current situation has affected private school enrollment for 2020-2021? I've seen some schools have rolled their deadlines for payment back, which presumably will roll back any waitlist movement. Are top schools actually seeing/anticipating seeing students leave (or admitted students decline to enroll) due to finances/the "Pay $30K to teach your own kid!" effect/other Covid reasons? I have friends considering pulling out of private school, but not sure how widespread that is.
Firstly, I think most private schools with resources (and even those who regularly have to "stretch" their dollars) prefer to work with a family going through a temporary financial issue than to force the family to leave the school. So for families who have a job loss, I think the schools are going to try and work to keep them at the school if that's the issue and if there is absolutely any way for the school to make it work.
But yes, parents are highly concerned about what school will look like in the fall. I think that barring an order from the state or county, every top private school and most of the smaller ones, will come up with a solution to have school on campus. I think kids at the lower levels will be eating lunch in their classrooms and spending the entire day with a fixed group of kids to reduce intermingling, with temperature checks of every kid before school each morning. That's something they can afford and something they can logistically force on parents (who already have to drop the kids off, no buses, they can force sick kids not to come in to school). At the upper level they can make class sizes even smaller so kids aren't too close to one another, although most are already pretty small. So I think if anyone can make the logistics of coming back to campus work, it will be the private schools.
Whether you pull your kids from school will depend on your public backup, and what age your kids are. I'd guess almost no one with a kid in high school who can afford the payments is pulling a kid from a private school. That's just incredibly disruptive to the cadence of a kid preparing to apply for colleges, and probably looking at competitive ones. At the top K-12 schools that regularly turn down more than they accept, you'd be foolish to pull a kid for 1-2 years and assume you can get back in, even if you live in an area with a great public school backup (unless you've already been considering using that option). If your kid is in elementary/middle school at SMS/Hock/GH/ESD/Parish/etc, you aren't getting back in for middle/high school if you pull your kid for next year. Given the choice of two strong candidates in an expansion year, one who has already pulled a kid after accepting a contract and one who hasn't, why on earth would they even consider your application? And if you go to apply to another school in a couple years, and they look at your schooling history, it won't take a genius for the school to figure out that you decided to cut and run because of distance learning which was outside of the school's control - will they really see you as being committed to the mission of a private school? Maybe if you already live in HP or Plano you pull your kid because if it's going to be distance learning you may as well not pay extra money for it, and use that money to hire a tutor. But even in those cases, if you already self selected out of those public schools, you probably had a specific reason for doing so, whether that is social, family reasons, child's needs for smaller classes, specialized instruction, etc. Many of the kids at the Catholic schools, for example, are probably already there because it's where they attend mass. It's hard to imagine they'll pull their kids over this.
What I do know is that lots of parents irrationally think that if next year includes some distance learning component, they expect a discount. Why, I am not really sure. Because most of the costs of running these schools are highly fixed in the short term (for next year, in any case). And even if we don't start the year in the classrooms, the schools don't want to fire a bunch of people and then if things get lifted after a few months or something, how do they hire those people back? That's just not how education works. But schools are not unreasonable and some have offered to lower some of the fees that parents regularly have to pay. For example, schools typically require one payment over the summer before school starts, and if you pay in 2 or more installments throughout the year, there are finance/interest charges. Some schools have either already lowered/eliminated those fees to keep headline tuition the same but lower the net that a family might pay to make the cost a bit more palatable.
Only time will tell how this ultimately plays out, and for families stretching to afford a school, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Distance learning is also substantially more challenging for parents of elementary aged kids, because so much more falls on the parents. I should know as my wife teaches middle and upper school kids but my kids are in elementary. So maybe that also tips the scales to some degree. As a practical matter, the families making these decisions tend to have a lot more of their net worth tied up in the stock market than the general public and that's doing quite well right now. If that holds until June when payments are due, I'm guessing that will also be a positive for lowering defaults on contracts. Unfortunately, this probably also delays the timeline for kids oh wait lists to find out about movement.
Thanks - very helpful as always. Your thoughts make sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by numbersguy100
Firstly, I think most private schools with resources (and even those who regularly have to "stretch" their dollars) prefer to work with a family going through a temporary financial issue than to force the family to leave the school. So for families who have a job loss, I think the schools are going to try and work to keep them at the school if that's the issue and if there is absolutely any way for the school to make it work.
But yes, parents are highly concerned about what school will look like in the fall. I think that barring an order from the state or county, every top private school and most of the smaller ones, will come up with a solution to have school on campus. I think kids at the lower levels will be eating lunch in their classrooms and spending the entire day with a fixed group of kids to reduce intermingling, with temperature checks of every kid before school each morning. That's something they can afford and something they can logistically force on parents (who already have to drop the kids off, no buses, they can force sick kids not to come in to school). At the upper level they can make class sizes even smaller so kids aren't too close to one another, although most are already pretty small. So I think if anyone can make the logistics of coming back to campus work, it will be the private schools.
Whether you pull your kids from school will depend on your public backup, and what age your kids are. I'd guess almost no one with a kid in high school who can afford the payments is pulling a kid from a private school. That's just incredibly disruptive to the cadence of a kid preparing to apply for colleges, and probably looking at competitive ones. At the top K-12 schools that regularly turn down more than they accept, you'd be foolish to pull a kid for 1-2 years and assume you can get back in, even if you live in an area with a great public school backup (unless you've already been considering using that option). If your kid is in elementary/middle school at SMS/Hock/GH/ESD/Parish/etc, you aren't getting back in for middle/high school if you pull your kid for next year. Given the choice of two strong candidates in an expansion year, one who has already pulled a kid after accepting a contract and one who hasn't, why on earth would they even consider your application? And if you go to apply to another school in a couple years, and they look at your schooling history, it won't take a genius for the school to figure out that you decided to cut and run because of distance learning which was outside of the school's control - will they really see you as being committed to the mission of a private school? Maybe if you already live in HP or Plano you pull your kid because if it's going to be distance learning you may as well not pay extra money for it, and use that money to hire a tutor. But even in those cases, if you already self selected out of those public schools, you probably had a specific reason for doing so, whether that is social, family reasons, child's needs for smaller classes, specialized instruction, etc. Many of the kids at the Catholic schools, for example, are probably already there because it's where they attend mass. It's hard to imagine they'll pull their kids over this.
What I do know is that lots of parents irrationally think that if next year includes some distance learning component, they expect a discount. Why, I am not really sure. Because most of the costs of running these schools are highly fixed in the short term (for next year, in any case). And even if we don't start the year in the classrooms, the schools don't want to fire a bunch of people and then if things get lifted after a few months or something, how do they hire those people back? That's just not how education works. But schools are not unreasonable and some have offered to lower some of the fees that parents regularly have to pay. For example, schools typically require one payment over the summer before school starts, and if you pay in 2 or more installments throughout the year, there are finance/interest charges. Some schools have either already lowered/eliminated those fees to keep headline tuition the same but lower the net that a family might pay to make the cost a bit more palatable.
Only time will tell how this ultimately plays out, and for families stretching to afford a school, this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Distance learning is also substantially more challenging for parents of elementary aged kids, because so much more falls on the parents. I should know as my wife teaches middle and upper school kids but my kids are in elementary. So maybe that also tips the scales to some degree. As a practical matter, the families making these decisions tend to have a lot more of their net worth tied up in the stock market than the general public and that's doing quite well right now. If that holds until June when payments are due, I'm guessing that will also be a positive for lowering defaults on contracts. Unfortunately, this probably also delays the timeline for kids oh wait lists to find out about movement.
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Makes sense
