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Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
In 2012, Mitt Romney received 27% of the Latino vote nationally, as a part of his abysmal 17% share of the total minority vote, but due to the traditional Republican vote among older Cuban-Americans, he still was able to get 39% of the Latino vote in Florida.
The Cuban Republican vote in Florida was thought to be declining anyway, as the original immigrants from Cuba from the 1950s/60s start to die out. Obama carried the younger Cubano vote in 2012.
Trump's roughly 23% share of the Latino vote in Florida is pretty consistent with other Florida polls I've seen. Although it's diminishing by the day, there's still is an element of the Cuban vote in Florida that is staunchly Republican. If Trump is really down to 23% in Florida as opposed to 39% for Romney in 2012, expect an even worse showing among Latinos nationally and an even lower total minority percentage than Romney received.
If that holds, Trump is going to have to pull out a big turnout and a smash victory among whites in Florida in order to overcome his minority deficit, and without Florida, it really gets problematic finding a plausible path for him to 270 electoral votes.
This from a highly respected pollster too. It's also right in line with other polls taken in the last 30 days, so it's no fluke.
Romney won Missouri by 9 points. Yikes.
McCain barely beat Obama in Missouri by less than 1%.
But then, that was part of a 7% win and 356 Electoral College votes... so... not exactly a good trend-line for Trump.
That's the problem with this election, from the Trump perspective. Every single state that's close - NC, FL, OH, IA, NV, MO, GA, AZ, SC - is an absolute must-win for Trump. But Clinton can still win without a single one of those states.
McCain barely beat Obama in Missouri by less than 1%.
But then, that was part of a 7% win and 356 Electoral College votes... so... not exactly a good trend-line for Trump.
That's the problem with this election, from the Trump perspective. Every single state that's close - NC, FL, OH, IA, NV, MO, GA, AZ, SC - is an absolute must-win for Trump. But Clinton can still win without a single one of those states.
And basically it's been that way since the seismic shift in the Electoral College of 1992. As long as the Blue Wall of 242 electoral votes stay together (and you can add New Mexico to that to raise the number to 247) the GOP must virtually run the table of battlegrounds to win. Until that changes, every POTUS election is the equivalent for the GOP to drawing to an inside straight. Statistically possible but highly improbable. Even Lurch Kerry made it close, which tells you something.
And basically it's been that way since the seismic shift in the Electoral College of 1992. As long as the Blue Wall of 242 electoral votes stay together (and you can add New Mexico to that to raise the number to 247) the GOP must virtually run the table of battlegrounds to win. Until that changes, every POTUS election is the equivalent to drawing to an inside straight. Even Lurch Kerry made it close, which tells you something.
And then, only if you're very generous with what is termed a 'battleground'.
As you note, the so-called Blue Wall + NM is 247 EC votes.
Then, VA - where Trump's best number in August so far as been losing by 7% (the other four VA polls this month have him down double digits). That's 260 EC votes.
Then, CO - the four polls there in the past 7 weeks all have him losing by at least 8%. That's 269 EC votes.
As has been noted, the Clinton campaign has yanked spending from VA and CO, a sign of considerable confidence.
Now, I think it's a reasonable assumption that an EC tie goes to Trump, as even the next House would likely choose him in that event.
But...
NH - the last poll out of NH had Clinton winning by 9% there, and that was the best one for Trump in NH in over a month.
That's 273 EC votes, more than enough to win outright. And I don't think any of those states are battlegrounds - at least, not at this point.
In 2012, Mitt Romney received 27% of the Latino vote nationally, as a part of his abysmal 17% share of the total minority vote, but due to the traditional Republican vote among older Cuban-Americans, he still was able to get 39% of the Latino vote in Florida.
The Cuban Republican vote in Florida was thought to be declining anyway, as the original immigrants from Cuba from the 1950s/60s start to die out. Obama carried the younger Cubano vote in 2012.
Trump's roughly 23% share of the Latino vote in Florida is pretty consistent with other Florida polls I've seen. Although it's diminishing by the day, there's still is an element of the Cuban vote in Florida that is staunchly Republican. If Trump is really down to 23% in Florida as opposed to 39% for Romney in 2012, expect an even worse showing among Latinos nationally and an even lower total minority percentage than Romney received.
If that holds, Trump is going to have to pull out a big turnout and a smash victory among whites in Florida in order to overcome his minority deficit, and without Florida, it really gets problematic finding a plausible path for him to 270 electoral votes.
Latest Latino voice survey.
National GE, Among Latinos:
Clinton 75% (+62)
Trump 13%
Other 12%
This isn't the first like this either. It's evident he is going to do rather poorly with minorities.
Florida Poll (St. Leo's) August 14-18 1,500 Florida adults with 1,380 likely voters
Clinton: 52%
Trump: 38%
Women favor Clinton by almost 2:1 (Clinton 58.3% Trump 30.6%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70% Trump 23%
Blacks: Clinton +90%
Whites: Trump 50.6% Clinton 36.9%
Over Age 65: Trump 51.8% Clinton 39.6%
Under 35: Trump only gets 23%
What are 6 biggest states population-wise and with the most Electoral College votes?
CALIFORNIA
TEXAS
FLORIDA
NEW YORK
ILLINOIS
PENNSYLVANIA
As you can see, the only big state Donald can count on is Texas ... and California is bigger and more important than Texas (it has 12,000,000 more people ... TWELVE MILLION!). Donald MUST carry Florida at all costs.
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