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They “poll fewer Repubs” because there are fewer Republicans than Democrats and Independents. If you have a poll with more or as many Republicans, you have a seriously skewed poll.
So, you are claiming ALL those DEMS voted in ALL those repubs?
There are far more independents, 42% in the referenced Pew poll, with 29% Democrats and 27% Republicans. When pollster push Independents to include leaners, the results nationally are usually about 47% for Dem+Ind leaners and 42% for Pubs+ Ind leaners.
So why aren’t Democrats dominant? Much of that edge is squandered by D concentration in urban areas. It’s rare to see a red district thats 70% Republican. There are any number of blue districts that are 90% Democrat. Democrats self-Gerrymander by clustering. To that, add turnout. Minorities and younger voters tend to be Democratic but vote in lower numbers.
It varies by location, but nationally a general rule of thumb is the higher the percentage of the voter turnout, the better the Democratic chances, because they hold an edge in voters as a whole.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 08-03-2018 at 07:42 AM..
There are far more independents, 42% in the referenced Pew poll, with 29% Democrats and 27% Republicans. When pollster push Independents to include leaners, the results nationally are usually about 47% for Dem+Ind leaners and 42% for Pubs+ Ind leaners.
So why aren’t Democrats dominant? Much of that edge is squandered by D concentration in urban areas. It’s rare to see a red district thats 70% Republican. There are any number of blue districts that are 90% Democrat. Democrats self-Gerrymander by clustering. To that, add turnout. Minorities and younger voters tend to be Democratic but vote in lower numbers.
It varies by location, but nationally a general rule of thumb is the higher the percentage of the voter turnout, the better the Democratic chances, because they hold an edge in voters as a whole.
Also, polls far out from elections are based on adults in a household or registered voters. Generally speaking, Republicans do a few points better among likely voters than registered voters because the drop off is usually younger voters and minorities.
Also, polls far out from elections are based on adults in a household or registered voters. Generally speaking, Republicans do a few points better among likely voters than registered voters because the drop off is usually younger voters and minorities.
One thing you are not taking into account is that times change. 20 or 30 years ago it was more of a novelty to take part in a poll. Now everybody wants to survey us and many of us are simply tired of participating or skeptical of the real reason why we are being polled. Somebody calls my house for a poll and I say: "No thanks" and then hang up. Mail surveys go in the garbage. People that try to stop me on the street do not stop me.
You cannot go to a doctor's office without somebody asking you to do a survey; we are simply sick and tired of surveys. Even if I did one I would not tell it the truth; it is none of their business (period)! Of course, to the younger participants, it could still be a novelty; but they might not take the time to vote. Many of the older crowd, that doesn't do surveys, will take the time to vote!
Like I have said before; try to judge potential opponents by how much enthusiasm is in their crowds. Once you have to pay people to attend a rally many want to sleep!
Biden would have beaten Trump back in 2016, if the crooked liberals had allowed him to run... but the DNC was ready to crown King Hitlery her ordained position as POTUS
Biden would have beaten Trump back in 2016, if the crooked liberals had allowed him to run... but the DNC was ready to crown King Hitlery her ordained position as POTUS
Given the way the Russians played with voters in order to get the clown elected, I am not sure anyone would have beaten the dotard.
On to Joe Biden. Great guy. Enjoy retirement.
The nation has been set back 50 years by this current administration. With the Federal Deficits spiraling out of control on top of all of the other issues which have been swept under the rug, the nation is likely to be in serious trouble by the time 2020 rolls around.
It will take a dynamic, strong, skilled, bright, capable leader to regroup the Nation and get us back to work rebuilding the Republic. No offense to Joe, but he is not that guy. I am not sure who is....I keep hearing Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame, but is he the right guy with no political experience?
I hope the Dems have been making movies of all of the current clown's gaffs and errors. Running that stuff should be enough to allow a decent Democrat to waltz into office, notwithstanding that the Russians would LOVE to have the dotard under their thumb for another four years.
[quote=Ted Bear;52691738]Given the way the Russians played with voters in order to get the clown elected, I am not sure anyone would have beaten the dotard.
On to Joe Biden. Great guy. Enjoy retirement.
The nation has been set back 50 years by this current administration. With the Federal Deficits spiraling out of control on top of all of the other issues which have been swept under the rug, the nation is likely to be in serious trouble by the time 2020 rolls around.
It will take a dynamic, strong, skilled, bright, capable leader to regroup the Nation and get us back to work rebuilding the Republic. No offense to Joe, but he is not that guy. I am not sure who is....I keep hearing Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame, but is he the right guy with no political experience?
I hope the Dems have been making movies of all of the current clown's gaffs and errors. Running that stuff should be enough to allow a decent Democrat to waltz into office, notwithstanding that the Russians would LOVE to have the dotard under their thumb for another four years.
No Joe. But who?[/quote]
I don't care if the Dems run Schlitzie from Freaks. I will vote Democratic for the first time since 1976 and cast my vote against Donald Trump.
Given the way the Russians played with voters in order to get the clown elected, I am not sure anyone would have beaten the dotard.
On to Joe Biden. Great guy. Enjoy retirement.
The nation has been set back 50 years by this current administration. With the Federal Deficits spiraling out of control on top of all of the other issues which have been swept under the rug, the nation is likely to be in serious trouble by the time 2020 rolls around.
It will take a dynamic, strong, skilled, bright, capable leader to regroup the Nation and get us back to work rebuilding the Republic. No offense to Joe, but he is not that guy. I am not sure who is....I keep hearing Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame, but is he the right guy with no political experience?
I hope the Dems have been making movies of all of the current clown's gaffs and errors. Running that stuff should be enough to allow a decent Democrat to waltz into office, notwithstanding that the Russians would LOVE to have the dotard under their thumb for another four years.
No Joe. But who?
I think many of us are still waiting for the evidence that Russia had anything to do with the outcome of the election. We all know they tried the damndist but trying and be successful are 2 different things. What did they play with the voters, bridge, poker, rummy or some other game?
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