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It will come down to a half-dozen states. Trump will lose the national popular vote to any Democrat nominated. In order to win he probably needs a third party candidate to pull of 5 to 10% because he’ll never win a majority. Expect a near record or better turnout because Trump generates turnout, although more is negative to him than positive.
It could go either way, but with a great chance of a record turnout, I like the chances that #45 will be a one-termer.
And when Trumpnhimsef is on the ballot he can increase turnout for himself. Just like Obama did
It will come down to a half-dozen states. Trump will lose the national popular vote to any Democrat nominated. In order to win he probably needs a third party candidate to pull of 5 to 10% because he’ll never win a majority. Expect a near record or better turnout because Trump generates turnout, although more is negative to him than positive.
It could go either way, but with a great chance of a record turnout, I like the chances that #45 will be a one-termer.
Anyone nominated? Great news. No excuse for libs to not make Warren their nominee or even Hillary again. Why are they even talking about who it should be then ?
Anyone nominated? Great news. No excuse for libs to not make Warren their nominee or even Hillary again. Why are they even talking about who it should be then ?
What I’m saying that anyone nominated will be competitive against Trump. Whether they win will depend on how about 6 to 9 competitive states fall. I don’t think that Trump can prevent whomever is nominated from getting at least 48% of the national popular vote. The Dem floor is about 48% of the vote nationally and around 213 electoral votes. The Pub floor is about 46% nationally and about 195 EV or so.
There hasn’t been a non-competitive Democratic nominee since Mike Dukakis in 1988.
Also, this was in response to WK ‘s query as to “who could take voters from Trump”. The voters in question were suburban Independents who voted in larger numbers for Trump in 2016 than expected, but who deserted the GOP in congressional races in 2018 to provide a check on Trump’s power.
2020 could go either way, but the higher the turnout, I think the better the chances that Trump is a one-termed, and if there is a massive turnout and Trump is re-elected, then so be it.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 12-15-2018 at 09:29 PM..
I might sound like a Liberal skeptic, but Trump will likely win if the economy is doing well by November 2020. As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid!"
If Trump wins in 2020, there will be a blue tsunami in 2022, with Dems making big gains in both the House and the Senate, as we'll be in another recession by then.
It will come down to a half-dozen states. Trump will lose the national popular vote to any Democrat nominated. In order to win he probably needs a third party candidate to pull of 5 to 10% because he’ll never win a majority. Expect a near record or better turnout because Trump generates turnout, although more is negative to him than positive.
It could go either way, but with a great chance of a record turnout, I like the chances that #45 will be a one-termer.
People forget that last election was decided by less than 100,000 votes across three states. In his favor,Trump will have the advantage of being the incumbent, and having no challengers in a Republican primary. However, that has to be weighed against the fact that the next Democrat candidate will not have the same baggage as Hillary Clinton, and liberals continue to be motivated due to Trump's deep unpopularity. Further, as prior posters have noted, Trump has made no effort to broaden his base. I agree that it's highly unlikely Trump will win the popular vote. As long as Democrats don't nominate 1) Hillary; 2) Warren; or 3) any candidate with low energy charisma, then I'm optimistic about their chances of victory in 2020.
I might sound like a Liberal skeptic, but Trump will likely win if the economy is doing well by November 2020. As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid!"
If Trump wins in 2020, there will be a blue tsunami in 2022, with Dems making big gains in both the House and the Senate, as we'll be in another recession by then.
Since when have state elections mattered? There are Republican governors in Massachusetts and Vermont. Does that mean they are red? Illinois also recently had a Republican governor.
Indiana also had a D Senator for years, that didn't change anything.
Normally I might agree with you. But in these 2018 mid terms the state elections do matter. People were voting for or against - based on their opinion of Trump. Take it from a Trump voter - the results in these key swing states don't look good for Trump's re-election chances.
People forget that last election was decided by less than 100,000 votes across three states. In his favor,Trump will have the advantage of being the incumbent, and having no challengers in a Republican primary. However, that has to be weighed against the fact that the next Democrat candidate will not have the same baggage as Hillary Clinton, and liberals continue to be motivated due to Trump's deep unpopularity. Further, as prior posters have noted, Trump has made no effort to broaden his base. I agree that it's highly unlikely Trump will win the popular vote. As long as Democrats don't nominate 1) Hillary; 2) Warren; or 3) any candidate with low energy charisma, then I'm optimistic about their chances of victory in 2020.
Hillary is the one wild card that could bail out Trump no matter what else happens in the next two years, and I pray to the Lord above that the democrats nominate the corrupt biatch one more time.
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