Prediction going into the 2020 election (unemployment, illegal aliens, deaths, Clinton)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Oh yes because California decides the entire presidential election for us
The difference in the national popular vote in 2018 wasn’t just due to California. The point stands. A deficit of 2/3 million nationally can be overturned in the Electoral College. It happened in 2000 (a half million votes) and in 2016 (2.9 million votes). But if the difference in the national vote approaches 9/10 million, its highly probable that the quirks of the EC won’t be enough to save him. The 2.9 million deficit in the national pop vote that Trump overcame in 2016 was the largest in history. If that deficit is doubled or trebled in 2020, it would be extremely difficult to overcome.
The Democrats will win in a landslide if Russia doesn't assists in the elections again.
No way. It’s going to be solely based on which candidate the Democrats put up in 2020. The only ones that have a chance are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris. In order for Trump to win, he needs all the battleground states (Florida, Ohio, NC, Iowa) except he can win without Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire). It’s almost guaranteed that Georgia and Arizona will be the closest it’s ever been and will be considered battlegrounds state due to migration from failing Northern cities and states. Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada already flipped to a blue state because of this. Trump needs to also flip ONE of these states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) in order to win, so he needs to campaign hard in these blue states. Clinton lost those states because of blue collar workers and spending her campaign money on Hollywood celebs that are meaningless to their cause and concerns. If the Democrats pick a closer right wing candidate that’s to the right of Hillary, Trump will likely lose, unless he continues scandal free going forward.
The difference in the national popular vote in 2018 wasn’t just due to California. The point stands. A deficit of 2/3 million nationally can be overturned in the Electoral College. It happened in 2000 (a half million votes) and in 2016 (2.9 million votes). But if the difference in the national vote approaches 9/10 million, its highly probable that the quirks of the EC won’t be enough to save him. The 2.9 million deficit in the national pop vote that Trump overcame in 2016 was the largest in history. If that deficit is doubled or trebled in 2020, it would be extremely difficult to overcome.
yeah it was, Hillary won California by over 4 million votes. She won the national popular vote by less than 3 million votes. California gave her a huge chunk of that......California won't decide the election.
What you keep ignoring is that in 2020, Trump will have the advantage for being a sitting President, something he didn't have in 2016. He was the underdog in money and the grass root campaigning. He didn't secure the base of his party until the summer of 2016, he will secure it quicker since he won't have a serious challenge in the party and whoever comes out of the Democrat party won't do it until late summer because how their rules are set up and it's going to be a overcrowded primary and bloody
Last edited by Hellion1999; 12-09-2018 at 03:48 PM..
yeas it was, Hillary won California by over 4 million votes. She won the national popular vote by less than 3 million votes. California gave her a huge chunk of that......California won't decide the election.
What you keep ignoring is that in 2020, Trump will have the advantage for being a sitting President, something he didn't have in 2016. He was the underdog in money and the grass root campaigning. He didn't secure the base of his party until the summer of 2016, he will secure it quicker since he won't have a serious challenge in the party and whoever comes out of the Democrat party won't do it until late summer because how their rules are set up and it's going to be a overcrowded primary and bloody
Remember, liberals believe Hillary was the underdog because of “Russia” and “sexism”
yeas it was, Hillary won California by over 4 million votes. She won the national popular vote by less than 3 million votes. California gave her a huge chunk of that......California won't decide the election
What you keep ignoring is that in 2020, Trump will have the advantage for being a sitting President, something he didn't have in 2016. He was the underdog in money and the grass root campaigning. He didn't secure the base of his party until the summer of 2016, he will secure it quicker since he won't have a serious challenge in the party and whoever comes out of the Democrat party won't do it until late summer because how their rules are set up and it's going to be a overcrowded primary and bloody
I edited my original comment to refer only to 2018. In the 2018 elections, the Democrats won the national congressional vote by 9.5 million. California might have been a third or less of that total.
Trump didn’t have a track record in 2016. He received votes for simply not being Hillary Clinton. That won’t be the case in 2020. He’s unlikely to have an opponent with the baggage of Hilldog, and he’s already lost voters in the ‘ burbs that gave him the benefit of the doubt in 2016, especially college women.
The Dem candidate will receive at a minimum 48% of the national vote, because they have in every election since 2000. If Trump is re-elected in 2020, it won’t be by a landslide, because It’s highly questionable that the Fepublican Party nominee is any longer capable of even winning a majority of voters. If he wins, it will almost assuredly be by slipping through by virtue of the Electoral College, by winning that way only the 6th time in 50+ Presidential Elections while losing the national popular vote by millions.
Trump benefited in 2016 by (1.) a much heavier than normal turnout of white non-college voters, (2.) a better than expected showing among college grad suburbanites, and (3). a lower than expected minority turnout.
In 2018, we had the highest percentage of registered voters voting in over 100 years (1914).
Even though Trump wasn’t on the ballot, he nationalized the election, making it a referendum on himself, and his party lost the national popular vote by 9.5 million voters. Voters opinions on Donald Trump are locked in. He hasn’t broadened his base, and has barely tried. We are going to have a huge turnout in 2020, if 2018 is any indication. If he loses the national vote in 2020 by closer to the 9.5 million the Republicans lost the national congressional vote by in 2018 instead of the 2.9 he lost by in 2016, he’s going to have one hell of a time winning 270 electoral votes.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 12-09-2018 at 04:14 PM..
Remember, liberals believe Hillary was the underdog because of “Russia” and “sexism”
Hillary had it easy compare to whoever comes out of the Democrat primary in 2020. She had the money advantage and the DNC pretty much set it up so she wins the primary easily.
Trump is the sitting President, he will NOT have a serious challenge in the party. That means he will have the nomination in the bag before the summer and a huge money advantage compare to whoever comes out of the over crowded democrat primary that will go on until late summer and if the progressives don't win and the establishment democrat wins again, the question will be if the progressives will stay in the party.
another advantage for Trump will be that the convention will come AFTER the Democrats. That means he will counter whatever democrats will do in their convention and neutralize whatever bump they get.
Why would the blue collar Midwestern voters the Democrats have lost touch with go back to voting for a party that have become over the top PC SJW, wants to let in illegal immigrants, hates white men, and cares about "gender neutral bathrooms" while ignoring the everyday American.
If you look at last month's elections- Ds won the governorships and the Senate seats (5 of them since Minnesota had two) in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They cane within a couple of points in the Iowa Governors race and won 3 or 4 congressional districts. In Ohio they had a very mixed bag- losing the state offices but having a liberal Democratic Senator win re-election.
So they have either won back adequate numbers of blue collar voters or replaced them with other Demographics.
Heading into 2020 I think Dems are on a trajectory to win at least Mn, Wi, Mi and Pa. They should also close the gap some in Iowa and Ohio. As much as folks talk about Trumps rallies- those R Gubernatorial and Senate wins from the early 2010s really helped the Republicans find a path to voters in 2016. Their Senate candidates actually outperformed Trump in Ohio, Pa and Wisconsin. Dems have now identified similar roadmaps. The final factor will be not saddling themselves with a candidate as unpopular or mired in controversy as Clinton.
The difference in the national popular vote in 2018 wasn’t just due to California. The point stands. A deficit of 2/3 million nationally can be overturned in the Electoral College. It happened in 2000 (a half million votes) and in 2016 (2.9 million votes). But if the difference in the national vote approaches 9/10 million, its highly probable that the quirks of the EC won’t be enough to save him. The 2.9 million deficit in the national pop vote that Trump overcame in 2016 was the largest in history. If that deficit is doubled or trebled in 2020, it would be extremely difficult to overcome.
LAWL. There are no "quirks" in the EC. Just mad Democrats who can't stand that they lost.
Hillary had it easy compare to whoever comes out of the Democrat primary in 2020. She had the money advantage and the DNC pretty much set it up so she wins the primary easily.
Trump is the sitting President, he will NOT have a serious challenge in the party. That means he will have the nomination in the bag before the summer and a huge money advantage compare to whoever comes out of the over crowded democrat primary that will go on until late summer and if the progressives don't win and the establishment democrat wins again, the question will be if the progressives will stay in the party.
another advantage for Trump will be that the convention will come AFTER the Democrats. That means he will counter whatever democrats will do in their convention and neutralize whatever bump they get.
It's hard to unsit a sitting President.
I don't think an early close to the primary is that significant. In 00 Al Gore wrapped things up much sooner than Bush. But I have seen an interview where Kelly Ann Conway pointed out that it was to Bush's benefit because he and his campaign were forced to be much more adaptive and to campaign across a greater area. He had to make more than one sales pitch at a time and it carried over into the general election. In 08 Clinton and Obama went almost to the wire. This meant that Obama had been forced to campaign hard across all regions and several states normally not given attention by Dems. When November rolled around he was rewarded by picking off a couple of states that had not gone Dem in a generation or longer- Va, NC, and Indiana in particular.
While the lack of a primary helped Obama in 2012- he was also aided by an R candidate who proved easily pilloried. Bush had the same advantage in 2004- and I would argue Trump did in 2016. Likeability matters and if someone is not popular the extra 5-6 months will not solve their problems.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Oh my ..... better get in line
