How is Walker up to 3 points ahead? (health care, vote, Reagan)

[BELMO45]

The main problem for Warnock is Abrams is toast, she may lose by 6-7 points which makes it a near impossibility for Warnock to win. People split tickets on a small scale, so basically if Abrams loses by 2.5 or more it’s likely Walker gets pushed over the line anyway

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

The main problem for Warnock is Abrams is toast, she may lose by 6-7 points which makes it a near impossibility for Warnock to win. People split tickets on a small scale, so basically if Abrams loses by 2.5 or more it’s likely Walker gets pushed over the line anyway

A potential problem for statewide Georgia GOP candidates like Brian Kemp and (potentially maybe more so for) Herschel Walker are the post-Dobbs/post-Roe abortion bans that appear to have many women voters across much of the political spectrum (from the entire left all the way over to noticeably right-of-center college-educated suburban women who may often vote Republican) fired up and engaged at high levels that historically are not typical for a midterm election.

The Kansas abortion referendum results seemed to be a real eye-opener and a total stunner for many political observers after witnessing a situation where the pro-choice side won the referendum by 19 points... An abortion referendum that the pro-life side was expected to win going away in a deep-red state that Donald Trump won by about 15 points in 2020.

Republicans reportedly supposedly made up about 60 percent of voters who participated in the referendum where Kansas residents voted to keep abortion as a protected right in the state constitution by a margin of 59-41.

Voter participation in the Kansas abortion referendum reportedly approached presidential election participation levels, and women in the state reportedly were found to have registered to vote at unprecedented levels after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade.

If abortion plays a major role in shaping the trajectory and the outcome of this election, a big concern is that a political figure like Brian Kemp, who has a historically very impressive economic growth and development record amongst Georgia governors, may be noticeably vulnerable to an exceedingly well-funded and aggressive general election challenger like Stacey Abrams, even with her noticeably obvious political flaws and liabilities.

Voter backlash to the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision and the restrictive abortion bans that it has helped to enable in about half of the country does not necessarily appear at first glance to have had a noticeable effect on the polling results in a state like Georgia.

But a closer look at the results of the last several polls taken in the Georgia governor‘s race shows what normally would be a historically strong and heavily favored incumbent Georgia governor like Kemp seemingly currently struggling to get to and keep his top line poll numbers at 50% over the past month or so.

Georgia : Governor : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

Even the recent Insider Advantage poll that showed Kemp with an 8-point lead over Abrams only had him with 50% support amongst likely voters.

An incumbent Georgia governor that has an economic development record as historically strong as Kemp’s during a period where state government finances currently appear to be in their best shape ever very likely should be polling at about the 55-60% range on the low end.

But instead, Brian Kemp, even with his historically outstanding economic development and state government financial record, has been noticeably struggling to get to and stay at 50% in the polling in recent weeks... Which is something that is undeniably concerning for an incumbent governor who is running for re-election against an exceedingly well-funded and seemingly very aggressive challenger in a figure like Stacey Abrams.

In the U.S. Senate race, Herschel Walker’s campaign has appeared to stabilize at just the right time after a historically brutal late-spring and summer stretch.

But Walker hasn’t polled at or above 50% in months, if ever, and the aforementioned historically brutal late-spring/summer stretch that his campaign experienced has done much damage to his Senate prospects with some key groups of voters, including Black voters and women voters.

Walker’s stated support for abortion bans with no exceptions for rape, incest or health and life of the mother also potentially could be a noticeable liability for his Senate candidacy with women voters (including and particularly college-educated suburban women voters) in a political environment where there appears to have been growing anger over the end of Roe in recent weeks and months.

Though, the fact that Walker generally has polled in a range of 45-48% (often generally polling no less than 45%, except for a couple of recent polls that could be considered outliers) demonstrates the durability of his popularity amongst a very large swath of voters in the state.

It is Walker’s popularity as a beloved all-time college football hero at the state’s flagship university (UGA) that has made it difficult, if not impossible for Raphael Warnock to get to and stay at 50% and lead by a larger margin in the polls.

It is also Walker’s continued popularity as a beloved all-time college football hero at the state’s flagship university that gives him a good chance at winning the U.S. Senate race despite what only can honestly and undeniably be described mildly as a dumpster fire of a spring and summer for his campaign.

But, it probably should be mentioned that a most recent poll showed Herschel Walker trailing Raphael Warnock by 13 points amongst registered voters. The same poll showed Walker trailing Warnock by only 4 points amongst likely voters.

[atl2021]

Originally Posted by columbusboy8

You're watching too many fake ads, and drinking the kool-aid. This is a free country, so you can vote straight Democrat and keep getting more of the same! HIGHER INFLATION, NO BORDER, HIGHER TAXES, HIGHER CRIME, MORE HOMELESS, LYING, NEVER-ENDING HYPOCRISY, ETC.

Enough said - https://twitter.com/noliewithbtc/sta...r2OKX5bw3M-pig

[aslowdodge]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

It’s simple: Herschel Walker is up 3 points in the Bloomberg poll you referenced because is an all-time great and a legend in the most popular sport (college football) in a place that until very recently was (and largely continues to be) a deeply conservative state.

Because he was a very key member of the University of Georgia Bulldogs 2nd-most recent championship football team in 1980 and won the Heisman Trophy in 1982, Herschel Walker has extremely high name identification with most native Georgians who were born and raised in the state in the late 20th Century.

Because of his outstanding accomplishments as a member of the University of Georgia Bulldogs football team, Walker is recognized by many mature native Georgians as one of the absolute most highest achieving citizens in the state’s history.

Despite Walker’s numerous personal challenges, many Georgians remain extremely proud of him because of what he has accomplished on the football field in a college football-mad state.

And for many Georgians, particularly many mature Georgians who are old enough to have watched him play for the Bulldogs, either on television or in-person, sending Walker to represent the state of Georgia and serve in the U.S. Senate just seems like a natural progression in the life of a figure that (like it or not) many in the state view as a personal hero.

And the thing with Herschel Walker is that the more that he is attacked by Democrats and the media for his many personal issues, including for the way that he talks, the more popular that it makes him with about half of the state’s voting population.

Many Georgians see the Democratic Party and media attacks on Walker as biased attacks of a personal nature against a native rural Georgian and Southerner that they consider to be a personal hero.

And those continued attacks on Walker (no matter whether they may be rightfully or wrongfully deserved) only seem to be serving to rallying many native Georgians to his side to support him during these continuing attacks by Democrats and the media during the final 2 months of the election campaign.

Though, if it is any consolation to Georgia voters who may oppose Walker’s candidacy for the U.S. Senate, the results of a Quinnipiac University poll that was released yesterday (September 14th) shows Herschel Walker trailing incumbent Georgia U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock by about 6 points (52-46).

And while the same Quinnipiac University poll also shows incumbent Georgia Governor Brian Kemp getting support from 50% of those surveyed (which the 50% mark is key, because reaching 50% would enable Governor Kemp to avoid a costly and brutal weeks-long runoff in the general election), the poll also showed Kemp with only a 2-point lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (50-48)... Which Kemp’s 2-point lead is within the 2.7-point margin-of-error for the poll.

Georgia Governor's Race: Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Georgia Poll Finds; Georgia Senate Race: Warnock Leads Walker 52% - 46%

Those are some great insights about why walker is doing so well that as a newcomer to Georgia I would never have known.

[goolsbyjazz]

Originally Posted by MattCW

Let's just hope he can hold those points. The worst republicans are still better than the best democrats.

This is absolutely not true.

[aus10]

Originally Posted by goolsbyjazz

This is absolutely not true.

It didn't used to be.... when there were moderate democrats. Now it's all about party votes no matter how leftist the idea is..........a one party system.... no matter which side it would be.... will be the downfall of this country.......

[seussie]

Because the GOP only wins through blind faith to team colors and ensuring their wins not through popular vote but limited votes. It wouldn't matter if Hitler was running against Warnock. If it's not some confirmation bias, fervent religious values from one kind of group (conservative Christians), the idiotic idea that economies completely reset every four years of who's in office, or wealth hoarders, then it's business people convincing the little people that they're not stealing from their pockets, it's those dadgum Democrats. Unsurprising. Literally the biggest bore. But, everyone keep voting however you vote.

[ShenardL]

No offense, but Walker seems a bit slow... he kind of reminds me of Evander Holyfield when he talks. I usually vote republican but I'm not gonna vote for a dim-wit...

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by atl2021

Can someone explain to me how Walker is up to 3 points ahead of Warnock?

Because most people don't like the direction of the country right now, and his political party is not the one currently in power.

[bryantm3]

At this point I am just tired. Everybody who is still involved in politics seems hell-bent on crashing the country into the ground— and blaming the other side for it. When the lies start to outnumber the truths, it really makes me question what we're doing here in the first place.