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When I think of "out of nowhere" sorts of places, I think of cities like Cape Coral, FL. At nearly 200,000 people, It didn't even exist until the late 1950s, and it was pretty much nothing until the 70s.
Well, if we are going to be talking about retirement-magnet cities like Cape Coral, you might as well mention The Villages, FL.
For anyone saying Pittsburgh has been on the decline. Has not been there since 2010.
There are only two states with two cities in the Top 20 Amazon HQ finalist list, and they were Pennsylvania and Texas.
And Pittsburgh was one of the cities in the top 20.
Pittsburgh continually ranks as one of the top cities in the nation for QOL.
Its legacy institutions really can only be matched by metros in the 5 Million Plus venue. Yet it is a 2.5 million metro.
It carries well above its weight and is, yet still so affordable.
Carniege Mellon is on the rank and file with MIT and Stanford.
With that.
I think Lancaster, Pennsylvania is the true rising star.
350k will still buy you a nice and new home there. Its downtown is highly attractive and historic. It has direct Amtrak high frequency service to both Philadelphia and NYC. ( Trains every hour to Philadelphia and NYC).
Fun fact: The Keystone Line is the 4th busiest in the nation.
Its downtown gives me Richmond, VA vibes, despite being much smaller.
I LOVE Pittsburgh.
But I think Lancaster. Is Pennsylvania's next rising star
As someone there right now, Pittsburgh is in decline...
Although from what I can tell, Pittsburgh's decline is slowing somewhat -
It still doesn't offset the last 60 years.
It's a beautiful city, although I would never in my life live within the city limits or even county limits of Allegheny.
Very rich in character, somewhat dead at times, but a very nice downtown.
Pittsburgh is a true world class gem, although I wish it would stay true to its roots.
I personally was surprised to see Nashville come out of nowhere in the past 5 years or so. Country music? State government? Who knew?
Des Moines, too.
re: Nashville + education is a major factor too with Vanderbilt, TN State, Belmont, Meharry, etc. The locals knew this for decades of course but now it's becoming more know nationally.
re: Nashville + education is a major factor too with Vanderbilt, TN State, Belmont, Meharry, etc. The locals knew this for decades of course but now it's becoming more know nationally.
I think that the real sweet spot tends to be state capitals that are major research university towns.
If we think in those terms, it's easy to imagine cities like Tallahassee or Columbia emerging at some point. They are cities with that composition, but fly under the radar compared to Southern capitals like Nashville, Raleigh, and arguably Richmond.
I think some of the small to mid-size northeast cities are going to gain some traction now. There's a lot of people who don't want to pay the high housing costs in the big cities, but still want to be in the northeast instead of move outside the region, even if just for the higher wages until they retire. Also, many millennials are looking to buy homes instead of apartments. These trends started earlier, but the pandemic has really pushed things a lot, especially with the growth of teleworking. For people who only need to be in Manhattan or Boston once or maybe twice a week, I think the future is looking good for some of the cities with cheaper housing that are a couple hours away. Especially Hartford, New Haven, and Lancaster. Possibly Allentown and Springfield, MA. Just when people were starting to write-off the suburbs, I think it's looking like a good time to be suburban Connecticut and New Jersey.
I think some of the small to mid-size northeast cities are going to gain some traction now. There's a lot of people who don't want to pay the high housing costs in the big cities, but still want to be in the northeast instead of move outside the region, even if just for the higher wages until they retire. Also, many millennials are looking to buy homes instead of apartments. These trends started earlier, but the pandemic has really pushed things a lot, especially with the growth of teleworking. For people who only need to be in Manhattan or Boston once or maybe twice a week, I think the future is looking good for some of the cities with cheaper housing that are a couple hours away. Especially Hartford, New Haven, and Lancaster. Possibly Allentown and Springfield, MA. Just when people were starting to write-off the suburbs, I think it's looking like a good time to be suburban Connecticut and New Jersey.
I was thinking of Albany due to not just this post, but the one before it. It is a capital city/area that has a big state research university, along with other well regarded smaller colleges/universities, a tech sector and it is not to far from Boston or NYC. You also have multiple mountain options, lakes, city scenes, etc. right there. It has actually been an area that has steadily grown as well.
Been mentioned before but "satellite" cities of expensive major metros are going to do well this decade. Think regionally for the mid-Atlantic: Harrisburg, Lancaster, Allentown, Richmond, Roanoke, Harrisonburg, Salisbury, Wilmington, Dover. North of I-80 I think continues to decline. I don't see places like Scranton, Binghamton, or Albany picking up.
Been mentioned before but "satellite" cities of expensive major metros are going to do well this decade. Think regionally for the mid-Atlantic: Harrisburg, Lancaster, Allentown, Richmond, Roanoke, Harrisonburg, Salisbury, Wilmington, Dover. North of I-80 I think continues to decline. I don't see places like Scranton, Binghamton, or Albany picking up.
A difference is that Albany as a metro hasn't declined in population. So, it is quite a bit different than a Scranton or Binghamton, which are smaller metro areas as well.
Also, as a metro area, the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown area due to its rail access into NYC and from 2013-2018 once being a part of that metro area, could see continued growth as well. Much of the area's growth has been scattered though.
I saw a piece on Pittsburgh once. It’s attracting above the national average on jobs in the so-called “creative class” but is losing (much) more than the national average on working class jobs. People are still moving away even while it’s average income per capita increases (and in fact the later is tied to the former happening). Because the jobs that stay are higher paying. But there is a ceiling there if you can’t grow the remainder of your employment base.
Pittsburgh did everything right way back in the 1980s as it transitioned from an industrial to a post-industrial world. But in the decades it took to change, a couple generations had begun the process of moving out and now too few babies are there and Pittsburgh can’t move international immigrants in fast enough to offset the domestic migration out that is still occurring.
Yes this is an accurate description of the Pittsburgh problem.
Pittsburgh continues to loose population with those from its old manufacturing base. And its metro was heavily dependent upon that. Although its economy has diversified.
And its metro has been aging without pulling in enough new migrants to overcome that, and many retire down to the south and no longer have primary residency in Pittsburgh. This is honestly similar to what is happening with Chicago right now, which is seeing lots of stagnation with population, while still seeing economic growth. There has been a large drop off in new migrants.
US Air (which was founded in Pittsburgh) also had their hub in Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh International Airport was quite impressive.
But when they consolidated and closed the hub in the early 2000s, that also was a negative for the city. Because prior to US Air leaving Pittsburgh had an impressive airport with many connections. (Obviously something business seeks and is a part of the economic development puzzle).
The old US Airways hub also made Pittsburgh a more attractive place to live, because it made air travel less expensive, which diminished the fact the city is slightly isolated. (Similar to Denver).
But it is still pulling in new jobs, and they are mostly in the tech sector. And pay very well.
No it is not pulling in the jobs like Austin, but Pittsburgh tech growth is notable.
So while it has been shedding population, it has been gaining wealth and a higher share of educated and white collar workers and its QOL has been on a continual increase, not decline. Despite what just looking at the population stats would suggest.
Pittsburgh actually ranks pretty high on its share with those with an advanced degree of educated cities in the USA.
Carnegie Mellon really is a true powerhouse of innovation that ranks right up there with Stanford and MIT.
This is why I see it growing in the 2020s. Because I see at some point, its legacy assets and overall affordability will become big selling points.
But we will see.
Last edited by rowhomecity; 02-16-2021 at 02:01 PM..
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