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I'd put my money on most cities in the interior/central region of the country; the Midwest, interior northeast, mountain west, and much of the south central region.
It has always been about moving to the coasts, now I think the trend will be to move to cheap cities in the central part of the country, away from the coasts. Specifically, I see Appalachia, Rocky Mountain, and Great Plains cities doing very well. To some extent this has already been going on, but I see it accelerating in the 2020's.
Yes this is an accurate description of the Pittsburgh problem.
Pittsburgh continues to loose population with those from its old manufacturing base. And its metro was heavily dependent upon that. Although its economy has diversified.
And its metro has been aging without pulling in enough new migrants to overcome that, and many retire down to the south and no longer have primary residency in Pittsburgh. This is honestly similar to what is happening with Chicago right now, which is seeing lots of stagnation with population, while still seeing economic growth. There has been a large drop off in new migrants.
US Air (which was founded in Pittsburgh) also had their hub in Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh International Airport was quite impressive.
But when they consolidated and closed the hub in the early 2000s, that also was a negative for the city. Because prior to US Air leaving Pittsburgh had an impressive airport with many connections. (Obviously something business seeks and is a part of the economic development puzzle).
The old US Airways hub also made Pittsburgh a more attractive place to live, because it made air travel less expensive, which diminished the fact the city is slightly isolated. (Similar to Denver).
But it is still pulling in new jobs, and they are mostly in the tech sector. And pay very well.
No it is not pulling in the jobs like Austin, but Pittsburgh tech growth is notable.
So while it has been shedding population, it has been gaining wealth and a higher share of educated and white collar workers and its QOL has been on a continual increase, not decline. Despite what just looking at the population stats would suggest.
Pittsburgh actually ranks pretty high on its share with those with an advanced degree of educated cities in the USA.
Carnegie Mellon really is a true powerhouse of innovation that ranks right up there with Stanford and MIT.
This is why I see it growing in the 2020s. Because I see at some point, its legacy assets and overall affordability will become big selling points.
But we will see.
When US Air was the dominant carrier you could get anywhere but flying out of Pittsburgh was very expensive. Some local travelers would drive to metro Cleveland for less expensive flights. US Air was a curse and a blessing. US Air left Pittsburgh with a monster sized airport and maintenance facility. Luckily Pittsburgh is putting a billion dollars into a full modern wood and glass terminal.
When US Air was the dominant carrier you could get anywhere but flying out of Pittsburgh was very expensive. Some local travelers would drive to metro Cleveland for less expensive flights. US Air was a curse and a blessing. US Air left Pittsburgh with a monster sized airport and maintenance facility. Luckily Pittsburgh is putting a billion dollars into a full modern wood and glass terminal.
Hub cities usually see a premium bump in prices due to lack of competition from other airlines.
I'm going with Huntsville AL, Tulsa OK and Chattanooga TN. I think most Sunbelt mid sized cities will see some significant growth and development over the next decade but these really stand out to me.
Oh and let's throw in Cincinnati OH as well, and Knoxville TN and Louisville KY.
Out of nowhere? I'd say Milwaukee is a good candidate.
It never really suffered the same level of population decline a lot of rust belt cities did. There's been a surprising amount of Development both in the downtown core and surrounding neighborhoods. They've working on getting a streetcar up and running, while not impressive in it's current form it could be if they get some extensions in place. They have relatively good cultural attractions, including a lake front art museum and a new orchestra in a renovated movie palace. It has better access to nature than it's neighbor to the south, Chicago, but is still really only an hour-hour and a half drive away.
It's a cheap city, with good legacy city level amenities and walk-ability. The winters are tough, but they are in Madison too, and Madison has been booming. I'm honestly thinking Madison's recent success is spilling over into Milwaukee, along with people looking for cheaper living from the Chicagoland area.
While it really wouldn't be coming out of nowhere, due to its decades of laying a solid STEM foundation, the emergence of Huntsville would feel like it came out of nowhere. I think that another decade of solid growth will start to pay off for it. Also after passing the 200K mark in the city, it's starting to build a more visible resume for itself.
I think some of the small to mid-size northeast cities are going to gain some traction now. There's a lot of people who don't want to pay the high housing costs in the big cities, but still want to be in the northeast instead of move outside the region, even if just for the higher wages until they retire. Also, many millennials are looking to buy homes instead of apartments. These trends started earlier, but the pandemic has really pushed things a lot, especially with the growth of teleworking. For people who only need to be in Manhattan or Boston once or maybe twice a week, I think the future is looking good for some of the cities with cheaper housing that are a couple hours away. Especially Hartford, New Haven, and Lancaster. Possibly Allentown and Springfield, MA. Just when people were starting to write-off the suburbs, I think it's looking like a good time to be suburban Connecticut and New Jersey.
Yes - I agree. New Haven and Providence are on the rise - important universities, diverse population, and close proximity and direct train connections to NYC and Boston respectively.
I’m going to say Rapid City, SD; Cheyenne, WY; and mayyybe Scottsbluff NE. They all have that dry climate everyone seems to like, fairly accessible to nature/outdoor opportunities, and not all that much colder/snowier than Denver. I’d also maybe throw in some further flung places like Rock Springs WY.
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