2020 Census Results (real estate market, townhouse, to buy)

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Could be possible it's a combination of people leaving SE DC and smaller household sizes. People thought Atlanta city proper grew a lot between 2000-2010, but it didn't because so many black residents left the west and south sides of the city.

Why would you say that? Ward 7 and Ward 8 are growing at substantial rates. Looking at historical data, both wards didn't see much growth in the past because the cap rates did not permit the financing of new multi-family housing construction since the area has a higher concentration of low-income households.

Both wards have experienced significant new construction of tax credit housing on previously vacant land in the last 10 years and now have market rate buildings under construction or preparing to break ground. It's really important to point out the "previously vacant land" piece because these deals are happening on previously unoccupied lots so they represent new net housing units.

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by MDAllstar

I think most cities will take the 2020 census numbers with a grain of salt for a multitude of reason. The only real data anyone can use for accuracy in this digital climate is new housing construction, total housing units in your city, and vacancy rates. Household size is a really unscientific calculation that is impossible to use because of the inaccuracy of the numbers. You can't guess that and most minorities don't respond to the census. That is the case for all major cities in the country.

Looking at D.C. proper, here are the new net housing units delivered in the city by year:

Housing Unit Deliveries

2010: 1,909 units
2011: 1,943 units
2012: 3,925 units
2013: 4,545 units
2014: 6,309 units
2015: 3,355 units
2016: 5,682 units
2017: 7,035 units
2018: 6,135 units
2019: 6,044 units
2020: 9,150 units

Under Construction

Anticipated 2021 Deliveries: 6,724 units
Anticipated 2022 Deliveries: 6,596 units

Pipeline

66,498 units

Source: 2020 DC Development Report

DC is actually speeding up in development deals so the financial and capital markets must know something. The only way to actually grow a city (based on what we on city-data.com actually care about) is new construction which represent actual adults walking around the street, eating at restaurants, and adding to the vibrancy of your city. Births don't change a city at street level.

Housing Units can represent different things. In many gentrified cities multigenerational wealth is being replaced with single households.

Like you can go from a house with 5 roommates or a family of 5 being replaced with 5 studio apartments doesn’t mean a city is growing. Even if there is a net gain of 4 units.

Not to mention high end condos are investments. Like the Milenium Tower in Boston is like 40% primary residences. Similar units built in like Arlington TX would not have that ratio.

[mhays25]

Only a fraction of the 2020 construction was delivered by 4/1/20, and even that would be mostly not occupied yet per industry norms. Population growth would be closer to the 2010-2019 figure...which also represents 10 years instead of the 11 listed.

Also the development report at a glance doesn't seem to account for demolitions. That should be a significant number.

[pnwguy2]

The one thing that came out of covid is working from home has now become much more usual, even as we get to the post-covid ways. How this reflects city and state populations are unknown. The numbers we are looking at right now are pre-covid.

I would expect to see many suburbs and smaller towns increase their populations as many more work from home. This, combined with the unrest in many US cities, will likely create a decline in city population (in some, but not every area).

I don't believe the 2020 census reflects this, but I predict by 2022-24, the estimated stats will be clear. Major change in population patterns is what I predict.

[mhays25]

Maybe, but it'll be very different from today's temporary condition.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by atadytic19

Since 1980 California had gained 15M plus people but the black portion of that dropped from 8% to 5.5%.

The changes are even more shocking when you look at percentage losses from the major cities in California to other parts of California. For the Bay for example the black losses since the 80s near 50%.

Black people hear how diverse the Bay is and they get there and then ask where are the black folks?

Well, it really is diverse. But Idk was 8% never that high to begin with. I know Oakland (47%) and LA (19%) used to be much higher though- which does mean a lot. I suspect we will see Oakland somewhere at 21-22% and LA around 7-8% in 2020. In general, it seems black Californias have had to mvove inland..to the point of moving to Nevada even.

Black people certainly live in the Bay Area its just black people coming from the South or most of the east coast south of New England are used to things being a certain way. What they expect when they hear "diversity" is different. I never felt that way in the Bay outside of being in San Francisco. This will be a better convo to have when those figures come out in June though.

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by atadytic19

Since 1980 California had gained 15M plus people but the black portion of that dropped from 8% to 5.5%.

The changes are even more shocking when you look at percentage losses from the major cities in California to other parts of California. For the Bay for example the black losses since the 80s near 50%.

Black people hear how diverse the Bay is and they get there and then ask where are the black folks?

Huh? Blacks are very visible in the East Bay which is no small corner, and even in the City, I belong to a group that is far smaller than Blacks(Pacific Islander) and even I see other Pacific Islanders with regularity so I dont about this 'where are the black folks?' narrative?

Also, did these visitors also hear about how Blacks in the Bay Area are migrating inland because they can sell their 1 million-dollar shack in Oakland buy a huge house in Sacramento?

Because that's what's happened. The Black population in the Central Valley counties in and around the Bay Area CSA are exploding--and we are even seeing increases in San Francisco proper.

Also, keep in mind, Northern California is the largest multiracial corridor in the country by percentage of persons that are two or more races. San Joaquin is 12% multiracial, the highest percent of any metropolitan county in the mainland United States.


BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN ALONE OR IN COMBINATION WITH ONE OR MORE OTHER RACES

2010................County..................2019
211,238.........Alameda.............. 206,411
114,137......... Contra Costa.......122,215
3,127..............El Dorado.................2,627
9,711..............Marin.......................8,5 92
11,024............Merced..................11,919
3,421..............Napa........................3,8 00
512.................Nevada....................1,20 8
7,030..............Placer.....................10,1 93
178,445..........Sacramento.........191,752
830.................San Benito..................937
55,405............San Francisco........56,089
61,722............San Joaquin...........66,960
25,348............San Mateo.............25,939
57,869............Santa Clara............64,718
3,749..............Santa Cruz...............5,889
72,504.............Solano...................73,892
11,131.............Sonoma.................13,563
18,956.............Stanislaus..............20,442
2,638...............Sutter.......................3 ,472
7,192...............Yolo......................... 8,009
3,095...............Yuba.........................4 ,264
859,082...Bay Area-Sacramento.. 902,891


The Black(of all races) population is actually growing in the greater Bay Area-Sacramento megalopolis, even as thousands of other Black households moved to more affordable areas of the country---the vast majority moved from the coast to the valley.

I predict Sacramento will surpass Alameda as the largest Black population in NorCal soon, in fact.

And that's okay, people have a right to move if they want a bigger house in a safer neighborhood for HALF the price. More power to them.

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by mhays25

Only a fraction of the 2020 construction was delivered by 4/1/20, and even that would be mostly not occupied yet per industry norms. Population growth would be closer to the 2010-2019 figure...which also represents 10 years instead of the 11 listed.

Also the development report at a glance doesn't seem to account for demolitions. That should be a significant number.

Demolitions? Just an FYI that is probably unique to DC compared to other gateway cities like Boston or San Francisco, similar to Baltimore or Detroit, DC had tons of vacant land and almost all new housing is going on vacant lots, parking lots, and commercial businesses like auto repair shops etc.

[mhays25]

Ok, but it's not zero. Probably in the hundreds of units per year?

Seattle, BTW, counts demolitions as well as construction. An update from January: https://seattlecitygis.maps.arcgis.c...f719da4b26fe9f

[MDAllstar]

Originally Posted by mhays25

Ok, but it's not zero. Probably in the hundreds of units per year?

Seattle, BTW, counts demolitions as well as construction. An update from January: https://seattlecitygis.maps.arcgis.c...f719da4b26fe9f

Not really, I can’t think of many demolitions honestly. These numbers are multi-family units. DC doesn’t have the space to build single family homes and there are so many historic districts in DC (more than any other major city) that it’s almost impossible to demolition a house.