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False. Rioting is a form of criminal activity. There's a difference, and everyone knows it. Well, I should say anyone with an IQ above room temperature.
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Originally Posted by jade408
2. no big change in America is ever accomplished in America without violence
False again.
Roe v. Wade was a big change that happened in a courtroom and there was no violence.
The Sexual Revolution was a big change that happened with the introduction of The Pill, and there was no riot.
The development of the Personal Computer Industry was a big change and there was no riot.
The development of handheld smartphones was a big change and there was no riot.
The development of social media was a big change and there was no riot.
I could go on and list a thousand other points demonstrating you're wrong, but you get the idea. Well, maybe not you personally, but everyone else gets the idea.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408
3. There has been peaceful protest for decades now and nothing happened...
False. You have a funny definition of "nothing happened." Something happened, alright.
You're 0 for 3; but thanks for playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408
...Yes, it is terrible, and I worry about recovery.
The time to worry about consequences is PRIOR to acting, not after acting like spoiled children breaking windows to get new sneakers & toasters.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408
But on the flip side, at least in my lifetime, this is literally the only time I have seen most Americans at least talking about and acknowledging there is an issue. And my parents (boomers) notice the same thing.
Your statistics are incorrect. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (which is the most complete, comprehensive, and credible source that I can find) has compiled data every year on these subjects, demographics on victims and perpetrators of crime. 2018 is the most recent year for which you can obtain a complete report, but they go back a ways.
Where it shows offender demographics for violent crimes...
77% were male.
18.3% female
4.7% "Both male and female offenders"
50.2% White
21.7% Black
14.4% Hispanic
2.5% Asian
9% Other
2.2% "Multiple offenders of various races"
1.6% were age 11 or younger
14.0% age 12-17
24.9% age 18-29
53.7% 30 or older
5.8% "Multiple offenders of various ages"
So the poster boy for violent crime, is actually a poster Man, and he's a white guy over 30 most likely.
But yanno, not that the very ingrained, wrong idea that black people are a bunch of scary criminals is part of the inherent racism causing the problem, or being pointed out and protested, or anything...
And I promise, for every one video you want to share about black citizens getting belligerent with a cop, I can find you one of cops getting violent and aggressive with people who are not doing anything belligerent, illegal, or threatening to them. Especially now. It would be EASY. It would eat up numerous pages of this thread if you wanted to play that game, but I guarantee that posters here could match you link for link.
But in case you were not aware? Social media algorithms, including Youtube (via Google) have long since figured out what your biases and mine are, and are showing us the things that we are most likely to agree with and share, which is pushing everyone to a more confirmed and convinced position that theirs is the right side of things. You likely are not seeing a fraction of the videos that support the left's positions, just like the left is not seeing a fraction of the videos that support yours. And I've found fact checks debunking arguments on both sides, too. I am willing to correct myself and back off a statement when I am shown that it's untrue. I've seen a lot of people who don't, who just double down on it instead, or call the fact checking some sort of agenda. But it has been telling to me that there have been people involved in the making of fake news sites for clicks who have said they had no success selling BS to the left, and learned fast to focus their efforts on the right. There was a whole article in WIRED about that a few months back.
You're distorting and misrepresenting the FACTS!!! I've studied the bjs.gov website and related FBI statistics websites, and the FACTS are clear: 56% of gun homicides are perpetrated by black males, 16-39. Most black males are respectable citizens, I have to believe, so this is a minority of the black community, mostly urban/ghetto dwellers, mostly gang members, probably 1% of the country or less.
That means 1% of the country is committing over half the gun homicides.
That is NOT insignificant.
Even worse... some 40% of murders are unsolved, from year to year, but they record that most of the victims are black, so it's pretty clear that most of those unsolved cases are probably also black gunmen. Therefore the total murder representation by black males is probably upwards of 60%.
If not for this violent 1% of our country, we wouldn't even be having a debate about gun control, because our per capita gun murder rates would be about the same as Canada's and western Europe's, or maybe one point higher. The only serious problem we would be talking about is the mass shooters who tend to be mentally ill white males.
Theft and rape and battery are also far over-represented in the black community, particularly among the lowest economic strata.
I'm not trying to bash the black community. But I do believe these massive problems of violence need to be identified and addressed and not papered over. And similarly, the violence of the protesters can't simply be ignored or excused. That woman Hannah-Jones or whatever her name is claimed in NYTimes today that property destruction is not a crime because "it's replaceable" or some such nonsense.
Imagine that, literally condoning property damage. The forum I read that in, everyone was sarcastically suggesting the mobs target her house, since she's okay with it.
50.2% White
21.7% Black
14.4% Hispanic
2.5% Asian
9% Other
2.2% "Multiple offenders of various races"
.
BUT-- whites make up 75% of the population, so are under-represented in the violent crime data, and blacks only make up ~13% of the population, so are over-represented.
Is that because genetics pre-dispose them to crime?...No.
Is it because social factors- everything from poor parenting skills to lack of appropriate work ethic & respect for education (both due to poor parenting skills) to lack of economic opportunity (no jobs in the hood)?....Do I need to answer that for anyone?
Can the govt solve these personal problems or does it take change from within the individuals & communities themselves?.... The govt may be the worst parent all.
You're distorting and misrepresenting the FACTS!!! I've studied the bjs.gov website and related FBI statistics websites, and the FACTS are clear: 56% of gun homicides are perpetrated by black males, 16-39. Most black males are respectable citizens, I have to believe, so this is a minority of the black community, mostly urban/ghetto dwellers, mostly gang members, probably 1% of the country or less.
That means 1% of the country is committing over half the gun homicides.
That is NOT insignificant.
Even worse... some 40% of murders are unsolved, from year to year, but they record that most of the victims are black, so it's pretty clear that most of those unsolved cases are probably also black gunmen. Therefore the total murder representation by black males is probably upwards of 60%.
If not for this violent 1% of our country, we wouldn't even be having a debate about gun control, because our per capita gun murder rates would be about the same as Canada's and western Europe's, or maybe one point higher. The only serious problem we would be talking about is the mass shooters who tend to be mentally ill white males.
Theft and rape and battery are also far over-represented in the black community, particularly among the lowest economic strata.
I'm not trying to bash the black community. But I do believe these massive problems of violence need to be identified and addressed and not papered over. And similarly, the violence of the protesters can't simply be ignored or excused. That woman Hannah-Jones or whatever her name is claimed in NY Times today that property destruction is not a crime because "it's replaceable" or some such nonsense.
Imagine that, literally condoning property damage. The forum I read that in, everyone was sarcastically suggesting the mobs target her house, since she's okay with it.
Well stated. And I agree that nobody wants to bash the black community, yet when the statistics generally prove that the black community has some serious internal problems, the community itself, simply wants to ignore it, and instead pull the race card.
BUT-- whites make up 75% of the population, so are under-represented in the violent crime data, and blacks only make up ~13% of the population, so are over-represented.
Is that because genetics pre-dispose them to crime?...No.
Is it because social factors- everything from poor parenting skills to lack of appropriate work ethic & respect for education (both due to poor parenting skills) to lack of economic opportunity (no jobs in the hood)?....Do I need to answer that for anyone?
I prefer to think of crime - not just violent crime, but all crime - in the context of a string of conditional probabilities, frequently articulated as something such as the following:
The probability of a crime being reported GIVEN a crime has occurred
The probability of Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) investigating a crime GIVEN that a crime is reported
The probability of identifying a suspect GIVEN that a crime is investigated
The probability of procuring an indictment or arrest warrant GIVEN a suspect is identified
The probability of an arrest GIVEN the existence of an indictment or arrest warrant
The probability of prosecution GIVEN a successful arrest
The probability of conviction GIVEN prosecution (either through a plea deal or through judgment rendering)
The probability of being sentenced to prison time GIVEN a conviction
The probability of serving prison time GIVEN being sentenced to prison
The above isn't enough; then there is the opportunity cost of time. A high wage earner forgoes more money via conviction/sentence served than does a low wage earner for that same sentence. Very high wage earners frequently risk permanent loss of career - for example, an attorney may be disbarred or a stock broker may lose her licenses. Non-licensed high earning professionals also face permanent loss - imagine a VP of Finance at a major corporation being convicted of a crime, serving a sentence, and then returning to the workforce; there is zero chance that person can return into a corporate finance position.
The above is the cost. That cost is then compared to benefit of carrying out that crime if not caught.
Quote:
Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto
Can the govt solve these personal problems or does it take change from within the individuals & communities themselves?.... The govt may be the worst parent all.
With a conditional probability model, yes, the government can do more. It can raise those probabilities.
For example, let's switch the discussion from violent and non-violent crime to automobile driving infractions. Let's take speeding. A conditional probability model might be described as follows:
The probability of a LEO being near you when you exceed the speed limit,
The probability of the LEO noticing you are speeding given than the LEO is near you when you speed,
The probability of the LEO choosing to cite you given she notices you,
The probability of the LEO not being distracted to something else such as seeing a worse traffic law offender given she has already decided to cite you,
The probability she indeed pulls you over given she's decided to cite you,
The probability she gives you a ticket (instead of a warning) given she's pulled you over,
The probability of having an infraction dismissed given you received a ticket,
The probability of receiving a fine given you did not have the ticket dismissed --
------ all multiplied by the $$$$ of the ticket and possible insurance premium increase.
Now, the government COULD do something in the above, if it decided to do so. The government(s) could require a system using technology such as GPS and GES to automatically determine if a vehicle is exceeding the speed limit and levy a fine immediately when the vehicle exceeds the speed limit with no need for a LEO to be present. That changes the conditional probabilities from minuscule to near certainty. Drivers would change their driving practices in a heartbeat.
While technology can't similarly solve issues in violent crime, the government(s) could, if they desired, change the conditional probabilities. The government(s) could, if they desired, alter the timelines such that justice is swift rather than delayed, thereby increasing the expected costs simply via altering the time-value-of-money discount rate.
While such models can't and don't describe individual behaviour , they do a pretty good job of describing the behaviour of all economic participants.
Peaceful protests advocating positive change, one group.
Rioting and looting to advance some political agenda and cause a diversion from the virus. Other group.
The problem with 'peaceful protests advocating positive changes'....there is no incentive/motivation to spark the change!
Protesting in general is meant to inconvenience, disrupt, etc, thats the nature of it, if protesting looses its 'bite', there is no motivation to change.
If you look at the fight for civil rights, this is obvious, while it was mostly a 'peaceful' movement, MANY MANY people disobeyed laws, refused to comply with police, and were arrested. Rosa Parks is a great example...she REFUSED to obey the law about bus seating, and was forcibly removed and arrested, she was a common criminal in those days, she was a trouble maker in the eyes of police, (yet today, she is considered a national hero).
I'm always very polite to cops on the few occasions I've been stopped for speeding or whatever... but I'm a white male and they do cut me some slack... Nonetheless, I believe if young black men treated cops respectfully (regardless whether they really mean it), they'd have fewer problems with cops. It's simple common sense.
You make some valid points, even though we're sort on opposite sides of the overall issue.
But in regard to your last paragraph, how come it always seems that it's the Black guy who needs to show respect?
I disagree with you here for a couple of reasons:
1. rioting is a form of protest
2. no big change in America is ever accomplished in America without violence - going back to the very founding of the country. Which was started with a riot. Aka the Boston Tea Party
3. There has been peaceful protest for decades now and nothing happened, so why keep trying to be "peaceful" and have everyone ignore you. How much more patience should people have? Another 50 years, 100 years?
Do I dislike seeing my local businesses boarded up and damaged? Yes, it is terrible, and I worry about recovery. But on the flip side, at least in my lifetime, this is literally the only time I have seen most Americans at least talking about and acknowledging there is an issue. And my parents (boomers) notice the same thing.
So I wish people would stop pretending that we have seen peaceful protests work in America. Because the haven't since day 1. Violent protests and riots are in the country's DNA.
Unfortunately, you're pretty much right on target.
If the protesters just said, "Could you please just listen to us"...nothing would happen...as time has proven.
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