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Old 09-03-2009, 12:06 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 87,003,003 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AxisMundi View Post
You'll have to post the source for your 60 million, if you wouldn't mind.

Also, a portion of child rapist go on to harm other chidlrena fter release. How many children's lives should they destroy before being locked up for life?
It's back in post #20. Here it is again

Child Abuse Research and Statistics

Also, there, is a link to DOJ statistics that sex offenders have, by a very wide margin, the lowest recidivism rates of any crime categories.

And, there is a HUGE difference between a "child rapist" and a person convicted of inappropriate contact with a child, or having an email correspondence with a child, or cut out training bra ads from the Walmart flyer, or whatever else these offenders do to inspire farmers with pitchforks to come to their door..

By the way, as for those first two statistics on that link above, if we assume there are 200-million adults in the US, and 60 million were sexually abused as children, and if girl victims outnumber boys (which seems likely), it would follow that more than 31% of women who are teachers or nurses or journalists or judges were abused as children. So, using their intended logic, girls who are not sexually abused have a much better chance of going to prison than those who are.

It is estimated that there are 60 million survivors of childhood sexual abuse in America today.
Approximately 31% of women in prison state that they had been abused as children.

Today's installment of "fun with statistics", and the trouble you can get yourself into if you grossly exaggerate your claims.

Last edited by jtur88; 09-03-2009 at 12:32 AM..
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Old 09-03-2009, 12:28 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
23,223 posts, read 29,056,523 times
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Default Preventing murder

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post

For every million we are holding in prison forever, we will prevent one murder. Very efficient.
And at one time these individuals were your neighbors, you waved to them everyday perhaps, they invited you over for BBQ's. Perhaps one of your unsuspecting neighbors is so clever and intelligent he'll never get caught.
Quite an ongoing mystery: your ever mysterious neighbors. How many have been interviewed by CNN and there you go: Oh no! Not him! Not her! They've arrested the wrong person! He was the nicest man you could ever meet! LOL!

Being killed in a car accident, what is that? A form of murder? Someone driving through a red light?

So you keep a million in prison forever at 50K per year in prison costs. Gee whiz! That could build some fantastic light rail transit systems in this country.
Take some of our drunken drivers (murderers?) off the streets, make our streets and roads safer from untold deaths from accidents every year.

I've been in awe of a good many of your postings, but this is a real low for you. The lowest in reason and logic.
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Old 09-03-2009, 12:33 AM
 
Location: MN, someday AK
49 posts, read 105,438 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
It's back in post #20. Here it is again

Child Abuse Research and Statistics

So, using their intended logic, girls who are not sexually abused have a much better chance of going to prison than those who are.
Maybe its because it 1:30am and my brain can't operate correctly. But may I ask the question...

Girls who are not sexually abused have a much better chance of going to prison... is that saying they are going to prison for sexual offenses or is it just a general statement saying they're going to prison for any kind of crimes? I'm confused.
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Old 09-03-2009, 12:42 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 87,003,003 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MeeptJeep View Post
Maybe its because it 1:30am and my brain can't operate correctly. But may I ask the question...

Girls who are not sexually abused have a much better chance of going to prison... is that saying they are going to prison for sexual offenses or is it just a general statement saying they're going to prison for any kind of crimes? I'm confused.
I'm just using the statistics that are presented to me by the linked site, and accepting them at face value.

60 million adults is 30% of the population. But let's say its 20-million men and 40-million women, since I think girls are more likely sexually abused as children. After all, nearly all perps are male, and there aren't enough gays to molest 30-million boys. 40-million adult women in a population of 100-million is 40%, just in the general population. But only 31% of incarcerated women were sexually abused as children, so I can only conclude from that there is a low incidence in women's prisons of people who were abused as children---a mere 31% instead of the expected 40%. Do you follow?

The site would not have mentioned that stat, unless it wanted to convince us that there is a cause and effect relationship there, and child sex abuse tends to lead to a life of crime as an adult, but the statistic actually suggests the opposite. That NOT being sexually abused leads to a life of crime.

To more directly answer your question, the number of women who are charged and convicted with sexual crimes against children is very close to zero (nearly all highly publicized school teachers), so it obviously means women in prison convicted of all crimes.

Last edited by jtur88; 09-03-2009 at 12:55 AM..
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Old 09-03-2009, 12:45 PM
 
4,474 posts, read 5,415,101 times
Reputation: 732
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
It's back in post #20. Here it is again

Child Abuse Research and Statistics

Also, there, is a link to DOJ statistics that sex offenders have, by a very wide margin, the lowest recidivism rates of any crime categories.

And, there is a HUGE difference between a "child rapist" and a person convicted of inappropriate contact with a child, or having an email correspondence with a child, or cut out training bra ads from the Walmart flyer, or whatever else these offenders do to inspire farmers with pitchforks to come to their door..

By the way, as for those first two statistics on that link above, if we assume there are 200-million adults in the US, and 60 million were sexually abused as children, and if girl victims outnumber boys (which seems likely), it would follow that more than 31% of women who are teachers or nurses or journalists or judges were abused as children. So, using their intended logic, girls who are not sexually abused have a much better chance of going to prison than those who are.

It is estimated that there are 60 million survivors of childhood sexual abuse in America today.
Approximately 31% of women in prison state that they had been abused as children.

Today's installment of "fun with statistics", and the trouble you can get yourself into if you grossly exaggerate your claims.
Thank you for reposting the link.

From another advocacy site...

The typical child sex offender molests an average of 117 children, most of who do not report the offence (National Institute of Mental Health, 1988).

Child Abuse Statistics

Now plug those numbers into your estimates. They have other estimates as well at that site, including...

For substantiated cases (of cases referred to CPS), 31 states gave the following breakdowns: 60% neglect, 23% physical, 9% sexual, 4% emotional maltreatment and 5% other (NCPCA's 1996 Annual Fifty State Survey).

So, according to this site's statistics, warehousing one child predator for life will possible save 116 children from being molested.

Indeed, statistics can be fun, especially when one creates statistics to prove one's point.
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Old 09-03-2009, 01:54 PM
 
250 posts, read 246,540 times
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"Better 1000 innocent men locked up than one guilty man roam free."
-Dwight K. Schrute.
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Old 09-03-2009, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Fresno, CA
1,071 posts, read 1,288,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
If you go back and look at my post, you will see that I was responding to a comment about the predator perspective. In fact, YOUR comment about the predator perspective.
Huh? Not quite. The judicial perspective-yes; the societal perspective-yes; the mental health perspective- yes; the victim's perspective- yes; but the predator's perspective------?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
You will have to admit, I think, that child molesters, unique among all classes of felons, often lack any intent to cause harm to their victim. They may be horribly misguided, but they are not inherently evil. Arsonists always intend to destroy the building, carjackers always intend to deprive you of your car, bank robbers always intend to take somebody else's money, but child molesters, often possess no evil intent to cause harm. That does not excuse them, nor does it exonerate them from responsibility for their crime, but if you categorize them as evil, you are as misguided as they are.
Child molesters' demonstrated behaviors share in common with those of most other criminals that they are focused on meeting the offender's own desires/objectives without actual regard to what happens to their victims. The victim is only a means to an end.

If lack of intent to harm another were an overriding consideration, there would be a lot fewer people in prison for multiple other offenses like manslaughter/ drunk driving, corporate embezzlement, etc. where there was no intent to harm another. Intent or not, victims are harmed just the same. Being able to repeatedly delude oneself excuses noone. The damage is what it is. And many victims suffer terribly in pervasive ways for most of their lives. (I've had a 79 year-old lady sit in my office who everyday was still coping with the consequences of being molested as a child.) Not usually true of being carjacked, in a bank robbery, etc. Molestation is a personal crime that cuts to the very core of who the victim is in their most formative years.

Evil= Morally bad, wrong, wicked; causing harm, misfortune, suffering, destruction. Yup! Most child molesters know very well that what they do is legally, morally and societally regarded as wrong. Most also know their victims aren't willing participants. Otherwise, they wouldn't have to go through so many machinations to lure their victims and they wouldn't be so concerned with keeping their actions secret. It takes quite a bit of effort to circumvent all those societal standards and to disregard the child's fear/resistance. I would say that's a pretty good picture of evil behavior. If one perpetrates evil behavior on another (especially repeatedly) I would say that makes you evil. No?

Misguided= Lead in the wrong direction; lead astray If there weren't such awareness of the wrongness and the criminality of this offense in our society that might be a weak rationale but to be aware something is regarded as wrong and will be punished if found out and to do it anyway isn't misguided but intentional and yes--evil.

That being said, most child molesters (like most criminals) aren't evil 100% of the time or so many wouldn't blend so well into our communities and in their own families. It's that demonstrated potential to perpetrate known criminal acts repeatedly and clandestinely that makes the person evil even if they're able to obfuscate the appearance of that evil from most others.
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Old 09-03-2009, 07:44 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 87,003,003 times
Reputation: 36644
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxisMundi View Post
The typical child sex offender molests an average of 117 children, most of who do not report the offence
Just how do you suppose we know that? It can't be from information gathered from the victims, because most of them did not report the offfense. So it must be gathered from the offenders. From all offenders? Of course not. How did we survey the offenders that we did not arrest yet?

So the statistics come from the offenders who have been caught and prosecuted. Somebody got ahold of a sample of a few offenders (who were so flagrantly prolific, they got caught) who were asked how many people they molested, and ascertained this to be the average, but it is absolutely useless in any statistical sense, because it so outrageously stretches the concept of random selection. You don't need to be a statistician to recognize that.

So, offenders who have been caught claim to have molested an average of 117 children. Are you beginning to become suspicious of this figure yet? With 60-million victims, do you suppose there are a lot of offenders who are opportunistic, and have only molested one or two kids? And never got caught, so are not counted in the statistics. But they are just as bad as the offenders who molested 117 kids, according the posters here that I differ with, and they should be treated in exactly the same medeival way.
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Old 09-03-2009, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 87,003,003 times
Reputation: 36644
Quote:
Originally Posted by mollyblythe View Post
It's the very rare sexual predator/offender who eventually accepts/acknowledges the offense as being wrong (without threat of punishment). Rationalization, denial, projection, evasion and circumlocution etc. are standard operating procedure for them.

Is sure looks like you're talking about the predator's perspective, to me.

By the way, if you're wondering how I know anything about the predator's perspective----within all-male company, a man will say an awful lot of things about his thoughts and feelings that he would never tell his girl friend.
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Old 09-03-2009, 07:57 PM
 
4,474 posts, read 5,415,101 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Just how do you suppose we know that? It can't be from information gathered from the victims, because most of them did not report the offfense. So it must be gathered from the offenders. From all offenders? Of course not. How did we survey the offenders that we did not arrest yet?

So the statistics come from the offenders who have been caught and prosecuted. Somebody got ahold of a sample of a few offenders (who were so flagrantly prolific, they got caught) who were asked how many people they molested, and ascertained this to be the average, but it is absolutely useless in any statistical sense, because it so outrageously stretches the concept of random selection. You don't need to be a statistician to recognize that.

So, offenders who have been caught claim to have molested an average of 117 children. Are you beginning to become suspicious of this figure yet? With 60-million victims, do you suppose there are a lot of offenders who are opportunistic, and have only molested one or two kids? And never got caught, so are not counted in the statistics. But they are just as bad as the offenders who molested 117 kids, according the posters here that I differ with, and they should be treated in exactly the same medeival way.
I am also highly suspicious of your 60 million number as well, another estimate.

And life time institutionalization is hardly "medeival". Child molestors are serial offenders. We lock serial murderers and serial arsonists away as well to keep our society safe from them.

There is no concievable reason to think that serial child molesters are any different, or should be treated any different.
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