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Monday August 8, 2016:
Atlantic:
Gulf low and showers near the Bahamas from old 96L are continuing to help enhance scattered showers to portions of the Northern Gulf, GA and the Carolina's. An area of showers with old 96L is expected to stay just off the SE US coast and currently has a 0-10% chance of formation. Gulf low 0% chance at this time.
East Pacific:
A low off the SW coast of Mexico and the remnants of Earl from the Atlantic have combined to form Tropical Storm Javier in the Pacific. Expected to become a strong Tropical Storm or even a weak hurricane later this week before making landfall in Baja California. Water's are cooler the further up Baja you go, so the storm only has a small window to develop before a weakening from colder waters and eventual landfall. Expected to help spread rains into the SW US as its eventual remnants move up into the US. Several inches of rain possible this week in Arizona and New Mexico.
Monday August 8, 2016:
Atlantic:
Gulf low and showers near the Bahamas from old 96L are continuing to help enhance scattered showers to portions of the Northern Gulf, GA and the Carolina's. An area of showers with old 96L is expected to stay just off the SE US coast and currently has a 0-10% chance of formation. Gulf low 0% chance at this time.
East Pacific:
A low off the SW coast of Mexico and the remnants of Earl from the Atlantic have combined to form Tropical Storm Javier in the Pacific. Expected to become a strong Tropical Storm or even a weak hurricane later this week before making landfall in Baja California. Water's are cooler the further up Baja you go, so the storm only has a small window to develop before a weakening from colder waters and eventual landfall. Expected to help spread rains into the SW US as its eventual remnants move up into the US. Several inches of rain possible this week in Arizona and New Mexico.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Cool Map. Pretty much different systems were the extreme. Depends on the path & speed. For here, Diane, Irene, Sandy, Floyd are the top ones.
Insane numbers in the south and Louisiana is approaching extreme this week
My own theory is that old 96L is enhancing the juicy supply of moisture in this week's northeastern heat wave. Normally high pressure blankets the south, limiting the supply of moisture pumped northward with the heat. This one is a very wet heat wave.
My own theory is that old 96L is enhancing the juicy supply of moisture in this week's northeastern heat wave. Normally high pressure blankets the south, limiting the supply of moisture pumped northward with the heat. This one is a very wet heat wave.
Well it definitely helped give us more rain in SC! Picked up several inches last week from combined 96L and that Gulf Low.
Atlantic:
Wave train coming off West coast of Africa has started up again. First one off into the Atlantic has a 20-30% chance of development next few days currently.
East Pacific:
Two systems being watched between Mexico and Hawaii, one with 20% and another with 10% chance of development.
Atlantic :
The first of several waves coming off Afirca into the Atlantic has been given invest name of "98L". Just an area of disorganized showers. But currently has 80-90% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression (weak storm that's more organized basically). Current models mostly track this into the central Atlantic away from land.
Next several waves may decide to detour from that path...but too early to say. Still dealing with dust from the Sahara as well in the Atlantic.
East Pacific:
An area of disorganized showers off the SW Mexico coast has a 10-50% chance of development next several days. Currently forecast to stay offshore.
Central Pacific:
An area of disorganized showers well SE of Hawaii has a 10-20% chance of development. Moving westward.
Last edited by Psychoma; 08-16-2016 at 12:25 PM..
Reason: Added links
Wednesday August 17, 2016 11amEST:
Atlantic:
Tropical Depression 6 has formed. Winds 35mph, pressure 1006mb (29.71in), moving WNW at 15mph. Way out in the eastern Atlantic currently 840 miles West of Cabo Verde Islands.
Slow strengthening likely next 48 hours, could have next named Tropical Storm soon. Wind shear is lite around the storm so it can keep its developing storms, but shear expected to increase in 72 hours likely weakening the system some. The storm is approaching some dry air and this will likely weaken it as well after 48 hours, but it's trying to get a small inner core, which is sometimes seen with storms in the Atlantic trying to protect themselves from dry air...can get very very tiny but brief intense systems when this occurs. Will watch and see what happens. Usually dry air wins out.
General mocement to the WNW / NW expected over next 48 hours but models diverge significantly afterwards. GFS and others send the system North off into the central Atlantic. But the Euro and others take it Westward. Will have to watch and see.
The NHC cone map is a blend of those models but slightly favors the Euro.
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