Atlantic - Irma forms August 30, 2017 (nights, world, winter, conditions)

[Spazkat9696]

Originally Posted by muslim12

If I where you I would still keep my eye on this. I think the models will start a northward shift again today. Not much westward or southward trend left for it because of an area of high pressure in the Gulf. We are still a good 5 days away from any substantial impact. EPS actually shifted its mean last night slightly north and east.

Also guys, don't believe the GFS intensity forecasts. It certainly could go sub 900 but 880s landfalling in Florida after going over Cuba and passing by shredderola ( Hispaniola)? makes absolutely no sense.

Im still keeping my eye on it, but I don't think it will be a direct hit. I doubted the GFS intensity from the start. Looking back at the history of the area, and thinking about what the water tempatures around here can support I figured the intensity was way too high.

[trlhiker]

Originally Posted by muslim12

If I where you I would still keep my eye on this. I think the models will start a northward shift again today. Not much westward or southward trend left for it because of an area of high pressure in the Gulf. We are still a good 5 days away from any substantial impact. EPS actually shifted its mean last night slightly north and east.

Also guys, don't believe the GFS intensity forecasts. It certainly could go sub 900 but 880s landfalling in Florida after going over Cuba and passing by shredderola ( Hispaniola)? makes absolutely no sense.

I agree. The models change everyday. Yesterday they had NC/SC in Irma's crosshair, today it is Cuba and South Florida. Tomorrow, who knows.

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by trlhiker

I agree. The models change everyday. Yesterday they had NC/SC in Irma's crosshair, today it is Cuba and South Florida. Tomorrow, who knows.

NC/SC still in the cross hairs per Euro, some of the GEFS ensemble members also keep us in. I would also start watching this if I lived on the west coast of FL, FL panhandle, and Alabama/Mississippi coast.

[Cambium]

4:15-11:15am loop

[Spazkat9696]

The 06z GFS takes it even further west before hitting FL. Still waiting on the 12z.

ETA:Ugh... looks like east coast impacts as again increasing with the latest runs. However, the hurricane conditions have been removed from my weather app forecast. My guess is i have no guess. It's just a wait and see. I hate not knowing because this area can't evacuate without a lot of notice.

[BullochResident]

So what is a worse case scenario for Georgia from this? From what I've seen with the forecasts, I assume a worse case scenario for Savannah would be a "Matthew" like track where it parallels the Florida coast to the east, then proceeds to scrape Georgia as a Cat 3, but I'm honestly not so sure.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

So what is a worse case scenario for Georgia from this? From what I've seen with the forecasts, I assume a worse case scenario for Savannah would be a "Matthew" like track where it parallels the Florida coast to the east, then proceeds to scrape Georgia as a Cat 3, but I'm honestly not so sure.

Yeah, that's probably the worst. At least if it hits Florida and travels over land it will weaken by time it gets to GA but remember those strong East/NE winds and all that surge of water coming into Georgia. The way it sits I assume there would be major coastal flooding.


posting the 11am update now

[Cambium]

11am Update: More info regarding the warnings and surge of water, ect with link.
HURRICANE IRMA

It's been having a steady speed of 14mph moving across the Atlantic

Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west
is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near
or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

[SkyNSea55]

Watching here in Charleston. Family coming in Thursday. Or maybe not. Any idea when we will have a more definitive answer?

[trlhiker]

Originally Posted by SkyNSea55

Watching here in Charleston. Family coming in Thursday. Or maybe not. Any idea when we will have a more definitive answer?

I would say by Friday we should have a very good idea.