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Re 13--
Hurricane, tropical storm?
Landing at?
Houston is not prepared for more damage
Wouldn't worry about it, user is going down a what-if this and what if that scenario road. Should the storm never turn then maybe some of these ideas can be brought back.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Ensembles are simply separate output results by the computers, called "members". There's the main models and their "ensembles" as well. You can get a mean look at the ensembles which is simply an average of them all OR.............. See each individual one like this..........
Global models and Ensembles
There are still many members that go into the Gulf and Out To Sea but majority of them focusing on Florida and Georgia and South Carolina
Is it possible that 1 line wayyy off from the rest is right? Sure. but it's a very small percentage it will be correct. Solid lines are the main models.
12z Euro EPS Strike Probabilities
Euro/GFS/CMC Averaged Strike Probabilites
It is a strange thing to hope for, however, I finally see a run predicting land fall closer to Mississippi.
If it makes a coastal run up Florida as indicated the damage may approach a trillion. The first trillion dollar storm.
I recommend Floridians drive up to Alabama last night. If 75 is still moving I would move out today. Waiting for day light to make the drive may be too late.
There are one heck of a lot of people who may attempt to use the road.
If I was in Irma sights, the only type of structure I would feel safe in would have poured concrete walls a foot thick. That should survive a direct hit. Stick construction will not.
Do people build within their homes and strong room designed for a hit?
If I were in a downtown area I would look for the second floor of a parking garage. Yes you might get very wet, however, this type of structure should survive.
Satellite images on Saturday morning showed a very well-organized storm with little spiral banding and a wide donut-shaped ring of heavy thunderstorms surrounding a large eye. This may mean that Irma is progressing towards becoming an “annular” hurricane; these type of hurricanes are more resistant to wind shear and dry air, and weaken only slowly in adverse conditions.
I have to play SHS and walk back my statement about Irma being a potential trillion dollars storm if it goes up the coast of Florida from North to South.
Maybe at most 1/2 a trillion if it hits Miami, FtL, and Tampa all directs hits at hurricane force.
Satellite images on Saturday morning showed a very well-organized storm with little spiral banding and a wide donut-shaped ring of heavy thunderstorms surrounding a large eye. This may mean that Irma is progressing towards becoming an “annular” hurricane; these type of hurricanes are more resistant to wind shear and dry air, and weaken only slowly in adverse conditions.
Very interesting! Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise
Do people build within their homes and strong room designed for a hit?
.
Did you know Hurricane Andrew led to the "Hurricane Straps" code? When decks are built and homes, they need to have hurricane straps. Here too. I believe its a U.S code now. If Irma makes landfall somewhere as a powerhouse maybe something else might come about that we should do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lost in place
One graph I found estimates 13,000 meters, 42,650 ft from radiosonde observations.
Another shows -56.5C at 38,000, then constant to 65,000 ft.
Thanks. 42k doesn't sound too high and didn't think it would be that cold.
Any links to storm surge strength, duration?
A Cat 5 ( hopefully less at landfall but 4 is bad enough) must have a compensatory storm surge...
Yes, official specific Storm Surge maps will be issued by the NHC within 48 hours of anticipated onset of Tropical Storm force winds on continental US....so maybe late Wednesday or sometime Thursday we'll see the surge maps issued for Florida because we'll be entering that time period. They will be found right on the NHC's website adjacent to all the other blocks of info on their home page when available. Updates to those maps come out about 1 hour or so after the NHC releases storm info/stats updates and change each update. This is a newer map product they only recebtly started using and has been very successful thus far. They account for tide level (high/low) and include ocean front areas and into bays, rivers, etc that feed into those that can be susceptible to surge. These maps actually are for a one in ten chance of happening (possible worst case scenario if you will), which is what several emergency management has to plan for since it will be possible (but dont ignore because of that, instead plan for that and hope for slightly less).
Keep in mind surge values are also dependent on angle storm coming towards shore, the shape of the shoreline, how shallow the water is, barrier islands out front or not, if winds are onshore of offshore, shape of bays and rivers, how strong is the storm, how fast/slow the storm is moving, etc etc. it changes with each update. It varies storm to storm even if hits the same area a previous one hit..
In the meantime you can "play" with a know your zone type map showing how susceptible areas are If a storm hits (not Irma but just in general a storm) (remember this varies based on storm as mentioned above, and is just a general reference if you will). This is a slightly differnt map style then what the NHC will issue: http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Map...4dd7b277935fad
Sorry for long response but its a complicated and most deadly part of a hurricane on average!
I'd like to give many of you a big THANK YOU! for following this storm and giving me a relatively easy to understand explanation of what is, or may be, happening. I'm In SWF and watching the storm closely...and watching this thread closely. I can't contribute much right now as I'm certainly no meteorologist, but if I still have power or cell service I'll try and give real time info if it hits here.
Keep it up, THANKS!!!
PS...so far most of my neighbors are saying they will ride it out too. We all know it might be a wild ride. We were ground zero for Charley...this may or may not be worse...time will tell, but I can't leave.
I know my windows can withstand only 85mph. My roof only 105mph. I taped my windows for Sandy. I am sure things are done with higher limits down south but maybe before you decide to ride it out you can find out what your home can withstand. And of course where it floods easy around you.
You do have to appreciate mother nature and the power of this. So glad I have internet. It must of sucked before 1950 not seeing images like this.
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