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Latest 12z Main Models.. Slight changes. Note the pressure isn't insane anymore. (typical as we near)
South Florida needs to be on alert no matter what. Don't forget the size of the eye and how far 100mph winds extend. I think Western and Panhandle Florida is fine.
GFS: Barely Misses Florida, hits South Carolina/GA border
Canadian: Skims the beaches of South Florida goes back over Atlantic, hits North Carolina
Euro: Hits south Florida, back out in Atlantic, hits South Carolina
Navy: Hits south Florida, rides up the state exits then 2nd landfall at GA/SC border
Euro pressure is higher than I'd expect; didn't think it'd weaken much. Does it have weaken from going over Cuba?
Euro pressure is higher than I'd expect; didn't think it'd weaken much. Does it have weaken from going over Cuba?
Euro actually misses cuba, the center does, maybe mountains disturb the outflow outer bands enough to disrupt its power?
But a 934mb is like a Cat3 or 4 so its big heading to South Florida. All models miss Cuba so I think thats a non factor. Shes just gonna run out of steam but probably be Cat 3 or stronger hitting U.S
Here's one of the reasons uncertainty still high...this is the Euro's ensemble (the smaller models inside the Euro model that make it up), you can see they pinpoint different storm center positions so uncertainty remains.
Sadly this is looking a whole lot worse for a whole lot of people.
The models showing it moving off the coast this morning were such a relief, I was hoping it would go out to sea.
Then it started moving back.
Been looking all day hoping to see a change to the east again, and every time it gets worse.
I really hope something changes or this is going to be so devastating.
Sadly this is looking a whole lot worse for a whole lot of people.
The models showing it moving off the coast this morning were such a relief, I was hoping it would go out to sea.
Then it started moving back.
Been looking all day hoping to see a change to the east again, and every time it gets worse.
I really hope something changes or this is going to be so devastating.
Irma is inside a strong ridge of high pressure, increasing the pressure gradient and making the winds stronger
Lower pressure makes them stronger, and high pressure makes them weaker. High pressure should be good news.
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