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Basically saying the through (jet stream dipping) and front in Eastern U.S would kick Florence out but it may miss that opportunity and whats left is a ridge in Canada which would allow it to hit land
5Sept18 11pEDT/AST - Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving NW 10mph(17km/h), pressure 956mb. But now at 1aEDT satellite shows Florence under the effect of high wind shear finally and has become noticeably lopsided in appearance = weaker.
Wish we had aircraft recon of storm but no luck. So far out there (close to 2,000 miles away) Maybe they'll borrow the Global Hawk drone from NASA again like they've done with a few storms way out in the Atlantic but likely no value added justification for it other then I just want to know how strong it is.
Large swells will reach Bermuda towards Friday this week, and the US East coast early next week through the week, rip current threat will rise due to this regardless of storm track...powerful storm = waves already generated.
NHC says the shear expected to continue weakening Florence some next day or two then relaxes as storm reaches warmer waters = likely to restrengthen. NHC: "At long range, a rather large upper-level anticyclone is forecast to form near Florence, which would provide ample opportunity for the hurricane to regain its former strength and grow in size. Thus, the official forecast shows slow weakening in response to the initial shear, then levels off, with a significant increase in strength predicted by day 5."
A ridge looks to build North of the storm and force it more Westward this week. Given the large spread in models confidence in future track remains low for the time being...but we're talking 7-10 days before any potential US impacts so that's not too surprising that far out in time. Give it a few days and hopefully picture becomes more clearer. Either way always good to have your Hurricane plans ready since we are near peak of hurricane season and with Gordon news fading people will start to notice Florence more, might as well beat any rush to stores.
Cone map, looks like if were to effect Bermuda it would towards Monday/Tuesday timeframe:
Hurricane force winds only go out about 15miles from storm center. Philippe Papin with an analysis on part of why the storm was able to strengthen unexpectedly with the presence of high wind shear (bad for storms) because its vortex / field of influence / core may actually be smaller then models picked up on = not actually in the wind shear influence yet basically: https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1037539554989826048
Update on Florence: Down to a Cat 3 ...for now. Check out the change in direction and speed.
Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018
...FLORENCE WEAKENING FOR NOW BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 47.9W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 47.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is
forecast today, but Florence is expected to remain a strong
hurricane for the next several days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
GFS...stays too far north early so it recurves early and misses land, but boy is that close to southern New England. Almost hits Bermuda. I don't think that will happen or even be this close.
Canadian model hits North Carolina.
Euro hits North Carolina
Latest Hurricane Models. Even after today some models are more south, some are more north. After tomorrow they are more scattered but generally its a NW move after tomorrow.
Not coming anywhere near FL so count that one out.
Hope you are correct. They never come near FL ... until they do. After Irma will she / won't she last year, we've had it. We need a year with no hurricanes.
Hope you are correct. They never come near FL ... until they do. After Irma will she / won't she last year, we've had it. We need a year with no hurricanes.
A week before Irma, models had her heading toward the mid Atlantic. Cambium and others are way better at this than I, but I wouldn’t rule out a westward track toward FL.
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Poor GFS, looks drunk.
