Atlantic - Lee forms September 5, 2023 (predict, East, date, rain)

[njmom66]

Supposed to be heading to Newport RI sunday... hoping this thing stays out....

[L00k4ward]

Originally Posted by Cambium

There is an upper level trough in the U.S (a dip in the jet stream) which will be the system to watch in determining the track. Lee is basically blocked from going WEST OR EAST because there is a High pressure ridge in the Atlantic. Between that High in the Atlantic and the trough over the U.S, Lee is find the least resistant area to move forward.

Now just imagine to yourself what happens if that ridge in the Atlantic expands, that means Lee will get closer to Maine and thats what models are starting to realize might happen. Hence the shift west a bit more




But Lee will barely hold on to hurricane strength at day 5 because it will be passing through Franklin's wake of cooler waters it turned up. Hurricanes do that. Make waters cooler at the surface, so less fuel for hurricanes



Make sense?

Originally Posted by Cambium

Here's another look at the Steering Currents (winds aloft). I'm actually surprised it didnt just continue west. Not sure why the North move to be honest.

But you can see the High in the Atlantic and the Trough over the U.S. Lee squeezing between them


https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...m1&zoom=&time=

Thanks for the details.
Let’s hope that Lee won’t be pushed West or if we lucky - could be steered more East and hope that cold water would weaken it so no one would be affected on land..

Though, in the back of my mind I always think of the mariners.

Remember that years ago one of the earlier hurricanes was proclaimed as “no threat to the land”.

However,
3 people crossing the Atlantic perished due to that hurricane presumably - after communicating a beautiful stars and moon lit calm ocean and playful dolphins accompanying the yacht just the night before.

Let’s hope, it won’t happen again

[Cambium]

NHC shifted with the models. Eastern New England now in the "cone". Just means there's a slim chance the center of Lee will be there too.

That Atlantic blocking must be pushing Lee back to the NW Friday



https://twitter.com/jamiearnoldWMBF/...41464934969377

Ensemble models still stay off shore. Nova Scotia should start preparing for it



https://twitter.com/MikeBWeather/sta...41083622424795

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

. I'm actually surprised it didnt just continue west
Not sure why the North move to be honest.]

Got my answer. High pressure over Florida protected it. Click link to see animation



https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/stat...cnc801juw&s=19

[L00k4ward]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Got my answer. High pressure over Florida protected it. Click link to see animation



https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/stat...cnc801juw&s=19

Thanks for following this - glad that FL, mid-Atlantic are spared, but looks like parts of NE should keep an eye on it..

[Psychoma]

Mon 11Sept 5pEDT/AST winds 115mph(185km/h), moving WNW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 948mb. Hurricane force winds extend up to 75miles(120km) from center, TS winds 185miles(295km).

Lee may start transition from tropical to non-tropical when between Bermuda and US and more so as moves more North-ish. Winds would be more likely spread out than a traditional hurricane/tropical storm. If moves slower over cooler waters near land will help bring winds down, faster movement means winds don't slow as much.

Watch/Warnings are time based issued, would expect Watch for Bermuda tonight or in the morning to be issued. Northeast US and Eastern Canada could have Watch issued Wed night or Thursday for possible wind impacts arriving Friday evening into Saturday and pulling away from NE US Sunday.

Waves and rip currents continue to spread along the US East coast.

[Cambium]

[Psychoma]

Tues 12Sept 5pEDT/AST winds 115mph(185km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 946mb. Hurricane force winds have continued to expand, now up to 125miles(205km) from center, TS winds 240miles(390km).

As expected, the TS Watch was issued for Bermuda earlier. NE US / E Canada Watches likely to be issued Wednesday evening or sometime Thursday.

Current wind probabilities (may still shift / forecast details TBD and storm will be changing in structure most likely):
Hurricane: SW Nova Scotia 5-10% chance.
TS winds 58-73mph: 5-10% chance Cape Cod & most of coastal Maine & Southern & Eastern New Brunswick; 10-20% chance Eastern coastal Maine, South coast of New Brunswick, Western coastal regions of Nova Scotia; 20-30% chance Western Nova Scotia.
TS winds 39-57mph (still enough for tree/power issues): see pic:

[Psychoma]

With that TS Watch for Bermuda, NHC updates storm info every 3 hours now (2,5,8,11a/pEDT). https://hurricanes.gov

[Cambium]

Once it hits those cool waters it will weaken but wind field expands.