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They predict nothing. However, when someone is explaining them they always sound super smart and in the know ESPECIALLY when markets are plunging. Speaking of which where are all the people on here predicting gloom and doom from last week?!!?
they are great for monday morning quarterbacking . that is all the use i see other than the line patterns being pretty .
don't worry , the gloomers will be back ... a rising market is not there thing as they usually get left behind .
A lot of people argue we are in a secular bull that started in 2013. Typical length of 15-17 years puts us around 2030 for it to end. I believe the lowest cumulative gain in a secular bull was 425% which would put the SPX at 6800 in 2030. However gains as high as 1000% have occurred (Source: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d - however this chart incorrectly identifies the start of the bull in 2009) which could put the SPX at 16000, sounds completely ridiculous but it has happened in the 1950s bull.
At any one of these points in the last 18 months, it looked like we could have had a major bear market. Yet, it did not happen.
That is why it is said that you simply cannot predict short-term movements in the stock market. Anyone who says they can is talking out of their butts.
I made a fairly accurate prediction on Christmas Day in another forum. My prediction was largely based on tracking the 2008 market (while they were tracking closely at the time... these charts have diverged strongly in recent months). On December 26th the DOW hit an intraday low of 21712 at 10:52AM only to close at 22878. To be fair i was over 400 points off from the low, but the low hit within 8 minutes of my prediction. Here is the exact comment i made on Christmas.
I get the feeling tomorrow is going to be the base in the market short term. Perhaps a low of 21300 in the DOW around 11:00AM before it turns around and closes near the green. A V shape trading day. Who knows what will happen but that's my best guess.
I don't care if market goes up or down at this stage. Hedged either way. I'd rather see it go up, where I'll probably make 5% annual rather than say 10% that most investors will make , but if it goes down I feel like the hedge has me with enough protection that I can sleep well at night.
Not making many trades lately. Flipped PPL and bought MRO in past month and that's about it. Just waiting and watching.
I don't care if market goes up or down at this stage. Hedged either way. I'd rather see it go up, where I'll probably make 5% annual rather than say 10% that most investors will make , but if it goes down I feel like the hedge has me with enough protection that I can sleep well at night.
Not making many trades lately. Flipped PPL and bought MRO in past month and that's about it. Just waiting and watching.
A total bond fund is no hedge ... you would need no more than 30/70 to have a total bond fund really have enough lift to protect an equity dollar ..... TLT can do it dollar for dollar one to one ...in fact depending why we fell a total bond fund may not go up ... fidelity total bond fell in 2008
A lot of people argue we are in a secular bull that started in 2013. Typical length of 15-17 years puts us around 2030 for it to end. I believe the lowest cumulative gain in a secular bull was 425% which would put the SPX at 6800 in 2030. However gains as high as 1000% have occurred (Source: https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d - however this chart incorrectly identifies the start of the bull in 2009) which could put the SPX at 16000, sounds completely ridiculous but it has happened in the 1950s bull.
I've seen that chart before but i question how accurate it is. From November 1980 to August 1982 the S&P lost 27% yet this isn't included in the chart. I'm just confused why the 1980-1982 period wasn't considered a bear market in that chart. We would need a 27 year long bear market to get back in sync with historical trends of how long bear/bull markets last since the great depression. The "cycle" use to be around 34 years but since 2000 it has been cut in half. If this bull market runs significantly longer than the duration of the previous bear market... well that hasn't happened since the great depression and we would be in uncharted territory.
My personal opinion - on June 18/19 Powell is NOT going to cut the rate but hold steady, market is going to throw a raging fit and that will be all she wrote for the market at least in the short term. Then we will have no action at all at the G-20 which will cause more turbulence.
Stock market on July 4th if there is no Fed cut and G20 deal...
I don't care if market goes up or down at this stage. Hedged either way. I'd rather see it go up, where I'll probably make 5% annual rather than say 10% that most investors will make , but if it goes down I feel like the hedge has me with enough protection that I can sleep well at night.
Sure, you're sleeping better, but you have two choices: (1) keep hedging indefinitely, or (2) decide at some point to cease hedging. Choice #1 attenuates your up-side. Eventually the market rises, and your portfolio rises too, but relentlessly trails the market. Choice #2 might be brilliant, but is totally contingent on brilliant timing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by impala096
I've seen that chart before but i question how accurate it is. From November 1980 to August 1982 the S&P lost 27% yet this isn't included in the chart. I'm just confused why the 1980-1982 period wasn't considered a bear market in that chart. We would need a 27 year long bear market to get back in sync with historical trends of how long bear/bull markets last since the great depression. The "cycle" use to be around 34 years but since 2000 it has been cut in half. If this bull market runs significantly longer than the duration of the previous bear market... well that hasn't happened since the great depression and we would be in uncharted territory.
Did the world suddenly begin in 1929? If we're going to delve into chartsmanship, why are we ignoring history in the early 20th century, and in the 19th? And if we say on the contrary that the world has fundamentally changed, then on what basis do we go as far back as 1929?
In other words, what is or isn't a historical trend depends on what window in history we use.
To your point about 1980-1982, we could just as easily have declared 1987-1988, 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 as "bear markets", and everything around them as "bull markets". Definitions are largely arbitrary. Often we see 1929-1932 as a bear, 1933-1937 as a bull, and 1938-1942 as another bear. Sometimes we see 1929-1954 as a bear, since it wasn't until 1954 that markets (ignoring dividends or inflation/deflation) surpassed their 1929 high.
What I instead like to use, is a 20-year rolling period. 20 years ago, the US stock market was at something like half of its present value. Again ignoring inflation and dividends, the market has essentially doubled in 20 years. Looking at your chart, over ~120 years, the market has averaged 5% annual return. 5% over 20 years takes us to 2.65. This means that over the past 20 years, market performance is around 32% below trend line. Conclusion: thus far, the entire 21st century has been a bear-market.
Last edited by ohio_peasant; 06-10-2019 at 02:32 PM..
Dow can't get back above 25,000 (bonds, fund, cash, 401k) - We've been below 25K for about 2 months now - every time there is a rally, a dip then follows.
We're down today and sitting at around 24,000.
I am thinking that the bull market is out of steam at this point.
We cant build until there's certainty. Stocks may celebrate meagre job growth for a moment...but after awhile they'll stop. I mean, I don't think Trump is budging. I don't think Xi has a way to save face. This could go long. And then what....I can't build a new supply chain if there's a chance game on could be just around the corner. We'll see how long consumers can carry this thing.
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