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I made a fairly accurate prediction on Christmas Day in another forum. My prediction was largely based on tracking the 2008 market (while they were tracking closely at the time... these charts have diverged strongly in recent months). On December 26th the DOW hit an intraday low of 21712 at 10:52AM only to close at 22878. To be fair i was over 400 points off from the low, but the low hit within 8 minutes of my prediction. Here is the exact comment i made on Christmas.
That was a good call. If I may be allowed to plug myself a little bit, I also kind of made a "call" last week regarding the possible bottom of the latest pullback:
Sometimes, we get these right and sometimes we don't. But that is quite different than being able to predict the future direction of the stock market 3 months, 6 months or 1 year out.
Sometimes, we get these right and sometimes we don't. But that is quite different than being able to predict the future direction of the stock market 3 months, 6 months or 1 year out.
The essential idea is to emphasize and broadly promulgate those cases when one happens to be right, and to quietly suppress or ignore those when one happens to be wrong. This is how one establishes a track-record of expertise.
Too bad the market never got back over $25K. Oh wait...it actually managed to cross $26K. For how long is not worth guessing. Just another random walk down Wall St.
Too bad the market never got back over $25K. Oh wait...it actually managed to cross $26K. For how long is not worth guessing. Just another random walk down Wall St.
Agree. Throw a dart -- Could run up to 28K or Trump could threaten more tariffs tomorrow and it could drop.
The essential idea is to emphasize and broadly promulgate those cases when one happens to be right, and to quietly suppress or ignore those when one happens to be wrong. This is how one establishes a track-record of expertise.
Do this well enough and you can end up with your own show in CNN or Fox News.
A bit different from your prediction earlier this month
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374
On the SPX, 200 EMA was not only breached on Friday but the red candle ended at the lowest point which is as bearish as it can get... at the moment it looks like we may be in for some heavy selling next week as well.
My thoughts are we are headed for a retest of the Dec 24 lows over the next few weeks, i.e. 2351 on the SPX, may have a bounce at 2650 along the way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374
Market is selling off, 10 year yields have dropped like a rock today to 2.32
S&P600 is down a staggering 1.8% as we speak... I am thinking we are heading for a retest of the Dec 24 lows
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