Another call for a market short. (growth fund, recession, ETFs, cheap)

[recycled]

Good article on CNBC's web page about why market timing doesn't work.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/mark...st-8-days.html

[mathjak107]

does anyone really need an article on that ha ha ha …

[BeerGeek40]

Originally Posted by recycled

Good article on CNBC's web page about why market timing doesn't work.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/mark...st-8-days.html

Interesting.

[Berteau]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

does anyone really need an article on that ha ha ha …

We all know one poster does!

But the article is misleading because you are also in theory missing the biggest down days not invested. But then not always because people usually sell AFTER big down days. And if you sell anticipating big down days and are wrong, you miss out on more gains.

[mathjak107]

if anyone could miss the worst days successfully they would have a record that would blow away buffet and lynch .

the problem is not only can’t most successfully miss the worst days , they can’t even successfully miss the worst time frames successfully.

but not missing the best days is easy ..just be invested , done


it comes automatically with not trying to time your in and out

[BeerGeek40]

Originally Posted by Berteau

We all know one poster does!

But the article is misleading because you are also in theory missing the biggest down days not invested. But then not always because people usually sell AFTER big down days. And if you sell anticipating big down days and are wrong, you miss out on more gains.

Can't argue on this one, but it's almost meaningless at this stage as I plan to stay at least 50% bonds for a while. I just can't afford a market crash and would rather make a smaller return in exchange for less risk.

[mathjak107]

are you telling us you are 50% equity?

[organic_donna]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Can't argue on this one, but it's almost meaningless at this stage as I plan to stay at least 50% bonds for a while. I just can't afford a market crash and would rather make a smaller return in exchange for less risk.

Rates will probably not go up much more, so are you going out longer term? I would probably go out 5 years.

[Lycanmaster]

Originally Posted by Berteau

We all know one poster does!

But the article is misleading because you are also in theory missing the biggest down days not invested. But then not always because people usually sell AFTER big down days. And if you sell anticipating big down days and are wrong, you miss out on more gains.

Actually the article does make a mention of it:

You can show this with virtually any year, or any time period. This of course works in reverse: not being in the market on the worst days would have made returns higher.

But no one knows when those days will occur.

[BeerGeek40]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

are you telling us you are 50% equity?

I'm not saying that at all. I did have a big position in D - that is gone and it was rolled into new bonds (Wal Mart exp March '24). I think I'm 90% bonds right now. Of course, in a few weeks that could be different. It's almost like having a fantasy football team. lol Players come and players go.