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the issue is you likely dont have enough of a position to really matter .
unless you are beating 19% on all the dollars you normally keep invested in the bull in equities then you are behind timing your buy back in last january with a simple index fund.
that buy back in determines how successful your jumping out ends up .
all the little dabbling, dipping one’s toes does not make up for poor buy back timing one’s way back in with a much larger sum
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-19-2023 at 02:16 PM..
Reason: y
Then explain how I - with no inside information - was able to make a good call to short PLUG (at $74) , on FCEL, on RUN, on BYND?
No, it's not about inside information - it's about doing your homework.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
L-U-C-K
Even a blind squirrel finds nuts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
If you say so. Nope, I've been good with short calls and every one of those tickers I listed, I talked about on this board in other threads at some point in time, and/or actual trades are listed ....it's all there. I'm not anywhere near as good with calls to the long side, or having the patience that you need which is why I don't really make those calls.
Your gains on your small trades aren't moving the needle much since they are probable a small percentage of your overall account.
Personally I have most of my investments in indexes. Long term investing is about consistency so I don't change my allocations whether it's an up market or down. Indexes do the heavy lifting and I have less than 5% in individual stocks or specialized ETFs/mutual funds.
Ytd brokerage the last few years.
2020 37.11%
2021 26.41%
2022 -23.71%
2023 17.32%
BG - You seem to hobble your horse when you make huge swings in your allocation. You've done a good job controlling spending and eliminating debt, but you have a blind spot when it comes to investing so it's dragging down your returns.
Then explain how I - with no inside information - was able to make a good call to short PLUG (at $74) , on FCEL, on RUN, on BYND?
No, it's not about inside information - it's about doing your homework.
“I did this”. “I did that.” Of course you never miss an opportunity to brag about your few right predictions. LOL. I expect you to get some trades right even if it’s due to luck.
Because you underperform the market long term and inside traders beat the market long term. Inside traders don’t have to rely on luck like you do or put most of their money in bonds like you do.
And it’s about “doing your homework”? What if your classmates already have the answers to the test?
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lottamoxie
The idea of gambling being a better strategy with investment money doesn't resonate for me. .
You don't have to gamble to be extremely successful in shorting individual stocks, or even sectors. But to short the market, you have to know the future. (better than a well informed market maker does) Quite impossible.
Company and sector issues can be predicted and a short strategy can pay big. (as an informed earning tool).
But... that is a j-o-b that requires time, skill, information, capital, and risk. But not gambling.
Couple easy examples is; energy and infrastructure sector with current administration. We KNEW where they were headed on election day 2019. No mystery or luck or guessing required.
SWA meltdown one yr ago... Where is that stock (of a very financially strong company) gonna head in the next 24 months to cover their hugely expensive snafu? Down, down, down... Short at date of incident, and buy back in the trough. (If it is your LT hold).
There are all kinds of tools and services to make shorting easy (and not a mystery or guess or gamble).
As with any j-o-b...know what's required, know what can be delivered, execute the trades. (and set your exit plan the moment you buy). Could make you rich if done with significant sums, but it is not conventional thinking, and is increased risk. You can be wrong... either way. BTDT a million times.
Do what suits you (and you are confidently good at, and you sleep well doing.)
“I did this”. “I did that.” Of course you never miss an opportunity to brag about your few right predictions. LOL. I expect you to get some trades right even if it’s due to luck.
Because you underperform the market long term and inside traders beat the market long term. Inside traders don’t have to rely on luck like you do or put most of their money in bonds like you do.
And it’s about “doing your homework”? What if your classmates already have the answers to the test?
LOL How about you make a prediction or a call. Just one. We're waiting.
It's easy to criticize others for wrong predictions when you don't make any.
LOL How about you make a prediction or a call. Just one. We're waiting.
It's easy to criticize others for wrong predictions when you don't make any.
Better to not make predictions and make money than make wrong predictions and lose money. I already did make predictions when you asked me to last time. I predicted we aren’t going to crash like you said we would and we would be up long term. I predicted the heart crash wouldn’t come and the housing crash wouldn’t come.
Smart investors acknowledge that they can’t predict the markets. They put logic over their ego. I know I can’t predict big market drops and time the entry and exit accurately enough to make more money than just staying long.
Stocks will go up in the long-term. Buy and hold. There.
It that's all there was to it - then there would be either no need for an investing board here, or if we still had one, it would be extremely boring. Yes, stocks go up in the long run, and despite lackluster returns, I've still done pretty nicely over the long haul, no complaints.
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Nope, I've been good with short calls and every one of those tickers I listed, I talked about on this board in other threads at some point in time, and/or actual trades are listed ....it's all there. I'm not anywhere near as good with calls to the long side, or having the patience that you need which is why I don't really make those calls.
