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It that's all there was to it - then there would be either no need for an investing board here, or if we still had one, it would be extremely boring. Yes, stocks go up in the long run, and despite lackluster returns, I've still done pretty nicely over the long haul, no complaints.
I believe that the responses to your call have served a very beneficial purpose as we know that several of our crew got spooked by Heart's call and made bad decisions with their portfolios. I believe you bought into his fear-mongering if I remember correctly in addition to you exiting the market before both the last two Presidential elections because you expected market meltdowns. Others who may have gotten nervous seeing a thread calling for a market short might have been dissuaded by the well-articulated responses here.
I get that you are afraid to be long but to make a thread calling for a potentially disastrous short is reckless. Have fun with your style but don't post your hunches and call for action. You may harm someone who is new here and doesn't know your history. No hard feelings but these calls for action based on a hunch serve no good purpose.
[edit] Just had an idea. Change your thread titles in the future to something like "Reasons I think the market is going down" instead of "Another call for a market short". Then it's obvious to all that it's just an opinion and not a call to action.
It that's all there was to it - then there would be either no need for an investing board here, or if we still had one, it would be extremely boring. Yes, stocks go up in the long run, and despite lackluster returns, I've still done pretty nicely over the long haul, no complaints.
actually there is no need for an investing board .
80% of funds and stock pickers tend to lag doing nothing but buying index funds .
even fidelity insight with all their analyzing of fidelity funds and fidelity software , brain power and analysts , beat the s&p by an average of just 1% a year over more then 30 years .
while 1% grows a heck of a lot more money over decades it really isn’t a big difference average wise for all the effort in doing better each year
few small investors likely beat most of the lazy portfolios by trading in and out
So are your ytd returns beating or trailing a typical sp500 index this year? If you're breathing it then you got no argument from me. If you're trailing, then you have to ask yourself if it worth the effort?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations
The reality is more than likely he trails, it’s normal for his historic performance. His financial success is largely based on simply living well under earnings which mask his underperformance investment wise. He fits a typical diy profile which makes far too many moves, is emotional and doesn’t stick to any plan
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
Can't really argue this one, except for sticking to a 3 decade plan of aiming to retire early. I've probably made 5% a year on 'everything' over the years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
It that's all there was to it - then there would be either no need for an investing board here, or if we still had one, it would be extremely boring. Yes, stocks go up in the long run, and despite lackluster returns, I've still done pretty nicely over the long haul, no complaints.
5% annually when the overall market is up 10% annually is lagging. You could have done better by just buying a target date fund...
It that's all there was to it - then there would be either no need for an investing board here, or if we still had one, it would be extremely boring. Yes, stocks go up in the long run, and despite lackluster returns, I've still done pretty nicely over the long haul, no complaints.
That is all there is to it. Slow and steady wins the race. As other said, this investment board is to bounce ideas off of each other or just to opine on the markets. Maybe if you and a few others who feel these "hunches" and want to day-trade stocks based off of the disinformation you try and parrot should just start your own thread and call it "Day Traders, what are you buying today and selling tomorrow?" I mean, day trading is a loser's game but you won't get called out on it there if you post your daily hunches there, right?
I believe that the responses to your call have served a very beneficial purpose as we know that several of our crew got spooked by Heart's call and made bad decisions with their portfolios. I believe you bought into his fear-mongering if I remember correctly in addition to you exiting the market before both the last two Presidential elections because you expected market meltdowns. Others who may have gotten nervous seeing a thread calling for a market short might have been dissuaded by the well-articulated responses here.
I get that you are afraid to be long but to make a thread calling for a potentially disastrous short is reckless. Have fun with your style but don't post your hunches and call for action. You may harm someone who is new here and doesn't know your history. No hard feelings but these calls for action based on a hunch serve no good purpose.
[edit] Just had an idea. Change your thread titles in the future to something like "Reasons I think the market is going down" instead of "Another call for a market short". Then it's obvious to all that it's just an opinion and not a call to action.
Eh, you'll find some financial/stock market gurus (like Michael Burry, etc) make similar "bearish" remarks on financial news sites like CNBC/Barron's/etc from time to time.
Other times, they will interview more "bullish" analysts.
Ultimately, people are just making predictions about what they think will happen to the stock market due to both fundamentals, technical indicators and macro-economic conditions.
That is all there is to it. Slow and steady wins the race. As other said, this investment board is to bounce ideas off of each other or just to opine on the markets. Maybe if you and a few others who feel these "hunches" and want to day-trade stocks based off of the disinformation you try and parrot should just start your own thread and call it "Day Traders, what are you buying today and selling tomorrow?" I mean, day trading is a loser's game but you won't get called out on it there if you post your daily hunches there, right?
it is okay to play around with what amounts to fun trades .most of us enjoy doing that .
but not at the expense of sitting in cash .
the main investment portfolio should be sacred …it should never be timed in our out .
if anything it should merely be swapped for something more conservative during rough times .
one can certainly keep the same allocation to equities but move the volatility scale by swapping different funds .
40% equities can be an ark fund or it can be something like berkshire, big difference though in aggressiveness.. 60% bonds can be TLT which moves like a stock or it can be short or very short term .
so one doesn’t need to bail out , all one needs to do is fine tune it to what your
comfortable with
To keep up with the returns of the S&P 500, you need to buy and sell stocks (trading). You buy when they add a new stock to the index and sell when they get rid of a stock in the index. IMO, long term investors are long term traders. They get in and out of stocks whether they are rebalancing their portfolio or trying to keep up with the indexes.
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