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I've never subscribed to technical analysis. I know some people follow it religiously but the past doesn't necessarily equate to a repeat performance with different economic and political environments.
The idea needs people to believe it works for it to work. The more who buy in and act the more it actually works. Most of the time you get the information after an event has occurred, no different than anything else
Here’s another one by Morningstar that gets a bit more granular, comparing a DCA buy and hold portfolio versus another buy and hold portfolio that timed the buys.
I use BeerGeeks predictions as a contrarian indicator. Essentially do the opposite of his predictions and make a lot of money. The more attention the thread gets the more certain I am to do the opposite.
LOL. My first summer internship during b-school was on a team that managed a pension fund. I was a snot nosed kid. The senior portfolio manager had some outside speaker from one of the big investment banks come in & do a presentation that - IMHO - was just gobbledook lacking any academic rigor or solid analysis. Lots and lots of adjectives and adverbs with little substance. Metaphorically, references to reading tea leaves, casting bones, and communing with animal spirits.
After the presentation, I talked to the portfolio manager and said this was all baloney.
The portfolio manager agreed completely, and said, "this guy is worth his weight in gold, because he is consistently wrong."
Swedish trader Kristjan Kullamägi uses technical analysis. He doesn't sell courses. He was a top 15 taxpayer in 2020 and 2021. His net worth was over $80 million US dollars in 2021. He went from poor security guard to multimillionaire.
He was mentioned in a WSJ article, after he had a huge loss in a trade.
Short Selling Stocks Proves Costly for Some Investors
Moderator Cut
Last edited by Lizap; 11-18-2023 at 11:56 AM..
Reason: Copyright Infringement
[quote=move4ward;66086727]Swedish trader Kristjan Kullamägi uses technical analysis. He doesn't sell courses. He was a top 15 taxpayer in 2020 and 2021. His net worth was over $80 million US dollars in 2021. He went from poor security guard to multimillionaire.
He was mentioned in a WSJ article, after he had a huge loss in a trade.
Short Selling Stocks Proves Costly for Some Investors
Shorting stocks in some ways is easier than buying to the long side, just look for companies with bad business models, who never make money, and who are low on cash, (and an added bonus is that they are "hyped" and "cool")....and take quick profits when you can.
* Plug Power was one of the best shorts I have ever seen. Fuel Cell, Ballard Power - same industry but Plug Power was the best of the bunch to short, especially after it climbed up to $74. These companies NEVER MAKE MONEY. Ever.
* Beyond Meat - another huge loser
* SunRun (RUN) - a tremendous short when it hit $60 a share a few years ago.
Used it in the c/d investing game, the year we were allowed to short sell.
* The cruise lines and airlines have proven to be good shorts at times as well.
Shorting the indexes hasn't proven to be a good bet and I'm going to probably have to take some board abuse after January 1st.
Last edited by Lizap; 11-18-2023 at 11:58 AM..
Reason: Clean-up from deleted prior post
Shorting stocks in some ways is easier than buying to the long side, just look for companies with bad business models, who never make money, and who are low on cash, (and an added bonus is that they are "hyped" and "cool")....and take quick profits when you can.
* Plug Power was one of the best shorts I have ever seen. Fuel Cell, Ballard Power - same industry but Plug Power was the best of the bunch to short, especially after it climbed up to $74. These companies NEVER MAKE MONEY. Ever.
* Beyond Meat - another huge loser
* SunRun (RUN) - a tremendous short when it hit $60 a share a few years ago.
Used it in the c/d investing game, the year we were allowed to short sell.
* The cruise lines and airlines have proven to be good shorts at times as well.
Shorting the indexes hasn't proven to be a good bet and I'm going to probably have to take some board abuse after January 1st.
And you made tons of money shorting stocks right? Or because of a lack of conviction and discipline it’s never really panned out to any real money?
And you made tons of money shorting stocks right? Or because of a lack of conviction and discipline it’s never really panned out to any real money?
I have made some money along the way but never any great amounts, of course. Play money.
But the weird thing is that I do better picking short sales than longs.
I have made some money along the way but never any great amounts, of course. Play money.
But the weird thing is that I do better picking short sales than longs.
That’s because you don’t hold anything long enough on the long side to make any real gains, like Your last AAPL trade for example. You panicked and sold as soon as it went a little red on you. If you hadn’t sold when you did, how would that trade look if you still owned it today?
You can’t win in the market if you can’t live with a little red in the ledger at times.
even if he wanted to take advantage of the cash he created , he already gave up almost 20% of the potential gains on the general market and 30-40% in tech areas..
dipping one’s toes can be peeing in the ocean when the bulk of the money isn’t deployed
small investor returns as a group tend to stink compared to what the investments they were in ended up getting.
everyone is a genius getting out…
and a poor investor getting back in .
which i why a i prefer to just go more conservative, even if it means a dip in the short term , but always in it to capture those biggest early gains back
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-18-2023 at 07:58 AM..
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