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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Thursday to a new high for the year, as more cooling inflation data and strong Salesforce earnings capped the benchmark’s best month since October 2022.
The 30-stock Dow
gained 344 points, or nearly 1% to about 35,773, surpassing its previous high for the year in August. The S&P 500
was just above flat and the Nasdaq Composite
was 0.6% lower as investors took some profits in Big Tech stocks that have led the November comeback.
The Dow is closing out November with an 8% gain, ending a three-month losing streak. The S&P 500 is also up more than 8% in November, while the Nasdaq has advanced roughly 10%. Both averages are tracking for their best monthly performance since July 2022. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were trading about 1% away from their respective 2023 highs.
the problem is these predictions and actions to match get very costly .
in the financial world if one isn’t making the money handed the them by what they owned and were trying to beat mr market at his own game then you are in effect losing that money.
time and time again what we envisioned happening rarely plays out and doing nothing is the best course of action .
anyone who tries to say markets are all about timing is an amateur small investor who hasn’t learned humans are not good at timing at all.
odds are they have done poorly as an investor and are really just dabbling in equities with poor results
Care to provide an analysis of why your prediction is way off again? You listed all those reasons for a crash, so why is another prediction so wrong?
the human brain can only reason with what it knows but it can’t reason in what it doesn’t know .
couple that with the fact we are prewired to hate losing money more then making it when really money is on the line vs hypothetically and you set the stage for some pretty missed expectations.
one thing rarely changes and most small investors fail to grasp that .
MARKETS LOVE CLIMBING A WALL OF WORRY.
we are also reaching a point where the yield curve wants to normalize.
it is likely based on inflation that the long end of the curve will hover about where it is , but the shorter end getting all the attention is historically to high as cash instruments rarely have positive real returns after inflation and taxes .
so markets see cash instruments and the shorter end of the yield curve from the 10 year down falling so the curve can get back to normal where longer term pays more then shorter term instruments . we have the reverse now which is called an inverted yield curve and it isn’t normal.
so markets are expecting an influx of money into equities , gold and bitcoin as risk assets once again take center stage
Last edited by mathjak107; 12-04-2023 at 02:43 AM..
The economy has been slowing for the last few months, and the recent market highs are the result of banks inticing - not from company profits.
When that fuel dries we'll have a crashhhhh.
just be sure and tell us when .
being close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades .
a prediction of just one day it will happen doesn’t work in investing .
also you may want to research your claim better
“U.S. companies are set for their biggest year-over-year gain in quarterly earnings since the second quarter of 2022 after a high percentage of S&P 500 companies beat Wall Street expectations.
With results in from almost all of the S&P 500 (.SPX) companies, overall third-quarter earnings are estimated to have increased 6.3% from the year-ago”
The economy has been slowing for the last few months, and the recent market highs are the result of banks inticing - not from company profits.
When that fuel dries we'll have a crashhhhh.
one other point
markets and growth and corporate profits have never been linked .
as much as we think higher profits lead to higher stock prices it really does not work like that .
markets are based on greed ,fear and perception not the here and now .
gains and corporate profits don't flow together more ofton than not.
in the book a random walk down wall street 548 nyse issues were tracked and analyed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundemental signals and the actual stock performance ..
ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than:
20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains
10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains
(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains
(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw 28.6% gains
(-25%) and lower saw a -28% drop in share price.
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