Another call for a market short. (advisor, leveraged, trends, withdrawal)

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

What lessons have been learned from this?

I've learned nothing to be honest other than no more calls to short the market on here. I made my usual 7-9% as I do almost every year, and am not changing anything as we move into 2024.

As I just typed on twitter, and I'll say it here as well... sooner or later open borders and too much govt. debt is going to catch up with us.

And before anyone decides to report this as a political post, it is not. It's an economic post, as these two things are going to crush us eventually.

This is a large portion of a mental block that’s cost you a lot of money even if you refuse to acknowledge it and if others not was well educated in investing have taken any of your advice it’s done damage to them. Taking your 7-9% (I’d question the accuracy of this given the 30% spread)it matter when simply indexing crushes your returns

The last 10 years on 100k
Questionable 7-9%mind you this is your “stated” performance but you don’t even follow your own calls which would result in even worse performance

BG 7-9% 196k-236k
Spy 11.68% 302k
QQQ 17.73% 511k

And that’s not following your own calls. It matters if people who don’t know better take your advice

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Here are the last 10 years of DJIA returns. I sure don't see an annual average of 26%. Do you? I see two great years, a bunch of good years, and 3 losing years.

Year Average
Closing Price Year Open Year High Year Low Year Close Annual
% Change
2023 34,107.21 33,136.37 37,710.10 31,819.14 37,710.10 13.77%
2022 32,898.34 36,585.06 36,799.65 28,725.51 33,147.25 -8.78%
2021 34,055.29 30,223.89 36,488.63 29,982.62 36,338.30 18.73%
2020 26,890.67 28,868.80 30,606.48 18,591.93 30,606.48 7.25%
2019 26,379.59 23,346.24 28,645.26 22,686.22 28,538.44 22.34%
2018 25,046.86 24,824.01 26,828.39 21,792.20 23,327.46 -5.63%
2017 21,750.20 19,881.76 24,837.51 19,732.40 24,719.22 25.08%
2016 17,927.11 17,148.94 19,974.62 15,660.18 19,762.60 13.42%
2015 17,587.03 17,832.99 18,312.39 15,666.44 17,425.03 -2.23%
2014 16,777.69 16,441.35 18,053.71 15,372.80 17,823.07 7.52%

Quoting the djia is a poor starting point, quoting index change is also poor and even then that takes 100k to 227k in factual results which we don’t have from you which I doubt your avg over this time period has been 7-9%

Dia183%
Spy210%
Qqq 413%
Last 10 years with dividends reinvested

[mathjak107]

quoting index’s does not include all the dividends and the compounding on those dividends . you need to go by etf or funds not raw numbers.

so never use the raw index numbers to judge actual returns . they only include the subtractions bit not the dollars paid.

as low expectations shows it matters

[lottamoxie]

Last trading day of the year in the GREEN!

[BeerGeek40]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

Quoting the djia is a poor starting point, quoting index change is also poor and even then that takes 100k to 227k in factual results which we don’t have from you which I doubt your avg over this time period has been 7-9%

Dia183%
Spy210%
Qqq 413%
Last 10 years with dividends reinvested

Yeah well. I believe you said you have a $500k house, right? And fancy cars, right?
I have neither of these, and a college bill that I thought was going to be at least $75k for 4 years is now going to be about $10k at the most and only for 2+ years. You can't just look at returns! As my manager many moons ago used to say...it's not what you make, it's what you spend.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Yeah well. I believe you said you have a $500k house, right? And fancy cars, right?
I have neither of these, and a college bill that I thought was going to be at least $75k for 4 years is now going to be about $10k at the most and only for 2+ years. You can't just look at returns! As my manager many moons ago used to say...it's not what you make, it's what you spend.

irrelevant …assets that will be generating income vs expenses are two different things .

one can try cutting expenses but that doesn’t make up for poor investing returns and behavior. it just means you should have had more on the left side of the equation but don’t .

the two sides work together .

one should be maximizing their compounding while getting expenses lower . they don’t replace each other

[oneasterisk]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Yeah well. I believe you said you have a $500k house, right? And fancy cars, right?
I have neither of these, and a college bill that I thought was going to be at least $75k for 4 years is now going to be about $10k at the most and only for 2+ years. You can't just look at returns! As my manager many moons ago used to say...it's not what you make, it's what you spend.

You're trying to move the goal post and deflect because of your poor performance.

I have no debt either, followed the index and made much better returns as I posted with screenshots.

[mathjak107]

Cutting expenses only looks like more income generation ability until there is nothing left and expenses and unexpected spending keep increasing

So you need to do both as best as you can

I wish I had less of a cushion, said no one ever in retirement

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by BeerGeek40

Yeah well. I believe you said you have a $500k house, right? And fancy cars, right?

Well my house is 1.5mm and I have two newer BMWs

I have neither of these, and a college bill that I thought was going to be at least $75k for 4 years is now going to be about $10k at the most and only for 2+ years. You can't just look at returns! As my manager many moons ago used to say...it's not what you make, it's what you spend.

While you didn’t have a 500k house you also don’t have a 550-650k annual income either. If we are talking about things we don’t have, I don’t have any expenses and haven’t for children so one might argue my fancy cars are essentially children. All of this is irrelevant to the topic of returns though as I save 40-50% of my pretax income when I was making 150k and that number has faded as tax burdens have gone up but I save a lot of my 550-650k and invest in mostly index ETFs and leave them alone. The results speak for themselves and I’m about to replace one of my BMWs with a newer one but my investment performance allows that along with my savings rate

[oneasterisk]

Last trading day of the year ended in the red, but still managed to kick this prediction in the teeth.