2023 Real Estate Observations (Boston: tax rates, zoned, airport)

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by redplum33

The initial argument from massnative was that at some point there won't be a lack of inventory and we'll see prices come down. id77 responded by basically saying it's been this way for 10+ years.

While prices started getting crazy circa 2015, the lack of inventory really only became a major issue a few months after the pandemic started.

What massnative is saying makes sense, but I don't see it playing out that way. There's too much money out there now, and there's a ton of people waiting for inventory.

So what might fix the problem is a recession. Maybe too much money isn't a good thing sometimes particularly when you can't find a house with all that money. Or move the jobs to a place where there is more housing

[matrix5k]

Originally Posted by msRB311

So what might fix the problem is a recession. Maybe too much money isn't a good thing sometimes particularly when you can't find a house with all that money. Or move the jobs to a place where there is more housing

Originally Posted by redplum33

The initial argument from massnative was that at some point there won't be a lack of inventory and we'll see prices come down. id77 responded by basically saying it's been this way for 10+ years.

While prices started getting crazy circa 2015, the lack of inventory really only became a major issue a few months after the pandemic started.

What massnative is saying makes sense, but I don't see it playing out that way. There's too much money out there now, and there's a ton of people waiting for inventory.

There's literally no more land to build in the Boston area. Inventory for SFHs will always be low here. A recession didn't change prices by much in 2008, if at all. So I don't know why everyone thinks a housing crash will happen. Prices may come down some but not by a significant amount. The number of high paying jobs only goes up while the inventory goes down. Any good deals will be swept up by wealthy investors. It's like people in southern CA who have been waiting for housing prices to crash for 50 years.

And no I'm not happy about it. I'd love to buy a cheap house on the Cape like people did 10+ years ago.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by matrix5k

I hate it when they put all those fillers in the lobster rolls too. I want lobster in the roll, not a salad. You know they do that to skimp out. Some places advertise "just lobster" inside which is best.

I was watching food reviews and this guy who has tried lobster rolls all over Mass says that lobster express in Norwell is the best he has tried with no fillers. Im going to have to go there this summer.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by matrix5k

There's literally no more land to build in the Boston area.

Probably wouldn't do SFH but there's plenty of land available and plenty of redev opportunities.

Inventory for SFHs will always be low here. A recession didn't change prices by much in 2008, if at all.

But it did for condos. SFH prices could very easily slump in places that are a bad commute to Boston/Cambridge. Or if there was enough of a credit crunch that people with 50%+ DTI can't get mortgages anymore. Or a decent amount of White Collar unemployment.

As for the Cape... remember there are very few jobs on the Cape that pay anything. If the WFHers get forced back to the office I imagine the population would start declining again. You still have the issue of how service workers would get on the Cape esp during the Winter.

[UNC4Me]

Originally Posted by msRB311

So what might fix the problem is a recession. Maybe too much money isn't a good thing sometimes particularly when you can't find a house with all that money. Or move the jobs to a place where there is more housing

Do you not remember the 2008 market collapse and resulting recession? People couldn’t buy because they lost their jobs. Many went through foreclosure ruining their credit for years. Rents went up due to demand increasing. The only people who benefitted were well off cash buyers and real estate speculators. When the recession ended, home prices rebounded but stringent lending standards excluded many. The lower/middle earners suffered the most and you think another recession is a good thing?

[msRB311]

Well then we need a recession that will hit the high earners my friend.

[id77]

Originally Posted by redplum33

No, it's not all relative. And the reply from id77 is not sincere. He originally said 10+ years. I replied saying that people would kill to go back to the 2013 market. id77 then responds with a 2015 article.

2015ish is when the market got crazy. I firmly stand by my comment that people would kill to go back to the 2013 market. And, no, not with 2023 income...with 2013 income.

Since I have better things to do than scour for articles from 2013 to counter this, I'll simply shrug and say:

OK. I stand corrected. 8 years instead of 10+. I feel much better about 8 year temporary problems than I do 10+ year temporary problems...or I can just wait 2 more years when the housing cost problem turns 10.

[UNC4Me]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Well then we need a recession that will hit the high earners my friend.

That’s not how it works. In every recession it’s the lower to middle cases that suffer the most. High earners have more financial resources to weather the storm. That’s just the reality.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by matrix5k

There's literally no more land to build in the Boston area.

This is not even remotely true. There's plenty of land to build on in the Boston area (including a lot within the city itself). The factors limiting construction in the Boston area have much more to do with strict municipal zoning; a permitting process that's lengthy (often antagonistic), costly, and not developer friendly; expense land; expensive materials; expensive labor, etc.

It's hard for local policy to significantly improve land, material, and labor costs; but it can be changed to expedite permitting processes and not allow NIMBY neighbors to dig their heels in and slowly kill projects by tying them up with frivolous litigation and delays both of which drastically increase the cost (and risk) for developers. Making those changes would certainly spark new development at all density levels, but it takes political will and local cooperation which isn't likely to happen. There's very much an "I've got mine" attitude (you can see it on full display even on this forum), so the loudest voices in the communities where these changes are needed will be the ones saying "no!" because they're already there and don't want changes.

[msRB311]

Many people don't want all these changes in their quiet suburban towns, that is correct, I'm not sure why they get so much of the blame? Many people bought in a suburb because they wanted to be away from crowded city living and liked the space. For me personally I also think it's disturbing the amount of green space that gets destroyed ruining nature and displacing poor innocent animals. It's sad.

It's funny that we are all called NIMBY's when what we don't want is more forests getting torn down to house some millionaire and his family in his new 4000 sq ft home. That's really what is happening...at least in my town. So yes, I can see why people in my town (and me) are tired of new developments. Is it a bad thing to not want nature destroyed ? I don't want it happening in the next town over either to the extent that it is.

Again move the jobs somewhere else, spread 'em out. People aren't going to just ignore what's happening.