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New Jersey Suburbs of Philadelphia Burlington County, Camden County, Gloucester County, Salem County in South Jersey
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Old 01-23-2020, 07:03 AM
 
Location: North by Northwest
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Originally Posted by southbound_295 View Post
While South Jersey is traditionally more Republican than Democrat, a lot of small contractors from South Jersey were bankrupted by Trump when he built his casinos. A lot of the farmers down there are contracted to Progresso, so may not have been hurt as badly as Midwestern farmers. It's a crapshoot. It's winter at the shore.
I’m still amazed that Margate went for Trump. Dat Atlantic County GOP machine.
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Old 01-23-2020, 07:17 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ElijahAstin View Post
I’m still amazed that Margate went for Trump. Dat Atlantic County GOP machine.
People registered to vote in Margate, that is, using it as their primary residence, I am sure skew on the much older side and are wealthy retirees. So that really shouldn’t come as a surprise.
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Old 01-23-2020, 07:26 AM
 
Location: North by Northwest
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Originally Posted by Leps12 View Post
People registered to vote in Margate, that is, using it as their primary residence, I am sure skew on the much older side and are wealthy retirees. So that really shouldn’t come as a surprise.
It would be less surprising if Margate didn’t have such a large/distinctively Jewish community (of which I know you’re aware). Granted, the proportion is somewhat smaller among year-round households (maybe ~1/3?), but the Jews who do live there year-round skew even older than the general population and probably vote in even higher numbers.

I guess it’s a testament to just how incredibly Republican the (predominantly Italian and Irish) balance of the population leans.
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Old 01-23-2020, 08:07 AM
 
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Atlantic County leans Blue. In Egg Harbor Twp which is the county's most populous township, it's very close but in 2016, more votes were cast for Hillary.

Margate seems pretty close:
https://www.state.nj.us/state/electi...s-atlantic.pdf

Cape May County leans Red but has a small population.

But, Ocean and Monmouth lean Red and have high populations. I think many from there could easily drive down for the event, and make it a day trip. Likewise, Republicans, pro Trump independents from other areas in South Jersey.
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Old 01-23-2020, 08:18 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ElijahAstin View Post
It would be less surprising if Margate didn’t have such a large/distinctively Jewish community (of which I know you’re aware). Granted, the proportion is somewhat smaller among year-round households (maybe ~1/3?), but the Jews who do live there year-round skew even older than the general population and probably vote in even higher numbers.

I guess it’s a testament to just how incredibly Republican the (predominantly Italian and Irish) balance of the population leans.
One constant that seems as universal as any in U.S. politics is that, no matter what group you look at, the older they get, the more they vote Republican. Jews included.
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Old 01-23-2020, 10:20 AM
 
Location: North by Northwest
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Originally Posted by Leps12 View Post
One constant that seems as universal as any in U.S. politics is that, no matter what group you look at, the older they get, the more they vote Republican. Jews included.
Interestingly enough, the opposite is true for American Jews, which makes sense sense they were (and to a great extent remain) Democratic Party stalwarts. Or at least that was the case in 2014:

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-l...y-affiliation/
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Old 01-23-2020, 11:29 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ElijahAstin View Post
Interestingly enough, the opposite is true for American Jews, which makes sense sense they were (and to a great extent remain) Democratic Party stalwarts. Or at least that was the case in 2014:

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-l...y-affiliation/
I don’t fault you as it’s a little confusing the way that study was done, but that study does not answer “What percent of Jews in Gen Z/Millenials/Gen X/Boomers/Silent/Greatest vote Dem vs. those who vote GOP.

It answers “What percent of Jews who vote Dem or those who vote GOP are part of Gen Z/Millenials/Gen X/Boomers/Silent/Greatest?”

Two different questions.

The study is interesting though. It shows that Jewish Republicans are generally younger, more religious, more likely to be immigrants, and less educated than Jewish Democrats. Them being more religious and less educated is not surprising. Them being younger and more likely to be immigrants is.

I chalk that up mostly to Israeli immigrants and the ever-growing Orthodox and Hasidic communities.

Also, 9% of Jewish Republicans are...Latino?
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Old 01-23-2020, 06:54 PM
 
Location: North by Northwest
7,477 posts, read 10,488,770 times
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Originally Posted by Leps12 View Post
I don’t fault you as it’s a little confusing the way that study was done, but that study does not answer “What percent of Jews in Gen Z/Millenials/Gen X/Boomers/Silent/Greatest vote Dem vs. those who vote GOP.

It answers “What percent of Jews who vote Dem or those who vote GOP are part of Gen Z/Millenials/Gen X/Boomers/Silent/Greatest?”

Two different questions.

The study is interesting though. It shows that Jewish Republicans are generally younger, more religious, more likely to be immigrants, and less educated than Jewish Democrats. Them being more religious and less educated is not surprising. Them being younger and more likely to be immigrants is.

I chalk that up mostly to Israeli immigrants and the ever-growing Orthodox and Hasidic communities.

Also, 9% of Jewish Republicans are...Latino?
You can answer the latter question by switching the display to “party affiliation among Jews by age group.” The older they are, the less likely they are to lean GOP. I’m guessing the Jewish Latino Republicans are heavily Cuban?

Anyway, getting back on-topic, Margate is an interesting outlier. It’s one of just 36 NJ Towns that voted for both Trump and Murphy: https://www.nj.com/data/2017/11/the_...il_murphy.html

Trump performed quite well in the Cape May County towns, but that’s far less surprising:
https://www.state.nj.us/state/electi...s-cape-may.pdf
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Old 01-23-2020, 08:11 PM
 
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Originally Posted by ElijahAstin View Post
You can answer the latter question by switching the display to “party affiliation among Jews by age group.” The older they are, the less likely they are to lean GOP. I’m guessing the Jewish Latino Republicans are heavily Cuban?

Anyway, getting back on-topic, Margate is an interesting outlier. It’s one of just 36 NJ Towns that voted for both Trump and Murphy: https://www.nj.com/data/2017/11/the_...il_murphy.html

Trump performed quite well in the Cape May County towns, but that’s far less surprising:
https://www.state.nj.us/state/electi...s-cape-may.pdf
Fascinating. The pendulum swings. NJ governor elections in modern history have gone to the party opposite of the President. Also less surprising considering how the 2017 election also was a referendum on Christie, who was I believe the lowest or second lowest approved governor in the nation at the time.

In Margate’s case, the pendulum didn’t swing much. Barely at all. On the other hand, look at that swing for Lakewood at #1. Wow! The Jews there were REALLY feeling something, and considering they are ultra Orthodox, even more surprising! The Orthodox leadership endorsed Murphy. Why? I don’t know for the life of me.

Of course you were going to have a good number of towns swing from Trump to Murphy. Again, Christie’s stank was all over Guadagno, and the SALT deduction limit certainly didn’t help matters either. What would be really interesting is to see if there were towns that flipped from Clinton to Guadagno. How many of those?
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Old 01-25-2020, 12:30 PM
 
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Amazing that the event holds 7,500 people, 40,000 people are expected to show up and there have been over 100k ticket requests.
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