General NJ COVID-19 Thread (Jersey City: teach, reduce, drugs)

[JERSEY MAN]

‘Alarms Are Going Off’: New Jersey Hits Highest Covid-19 Transmission Rate Since April As Northeast Sees New Spikes In Cases
'Alarms Are Going Off': New Jersey Hits Highest Covid-19 Transmission Rate Since April As Northeast Sees New Spikes In Cases ... that “alarms are going off” regarding the new transmission rate, which NJ.com notes is ... initial outbreaks have more recently experienced worrying rises in their case counts, ...
3 hours ago


N.J. reports 10 new coronavirus deaths, 699 new cases as transmission rate rises to 1.35
N.J. reports 10 new coronavirus deaths, 699 new cases as transmission rate rises to 1.35 ... By Matt Arco | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com.
6 hours ago

[Mike_J]

And yet every Thursday, Friday and Saturday there are different cars parked outside of my apartment with NY, CT and PA plates.

Shut down the travel for at least week.

[nybbler]

This "transmission rate" appears to be based on confirmed cases without taking into account increased testing. It's total nonsense intended to promote panic. Testing in NJ has gone up, so cases have gone up. Positivity has remained pretty flat at around 1.5%, though last week there's been some data problems with NJ reporting only positive tests on last Saturday and Tuesday.

And no, this has nothing to do with re-opening. If Murphy wasn't going to move to re-open with cases declining for months, it's because he's not going to re-open until a vaccine or an election.

[atgss]

Originally Posted by nybbler

This "transmission rate" appears to be based on confirmed cases without taking into account increased testing. It's total nonsense intended to promote panic. Testing in NJ has gone up, so cases have gone up. Positivity has remained pretty flat at around 1.5%, though last week there's been some data problems with NJ reporting only positive tests on last Saturday and Tuesday.

And no, this has nothing to do with re-opening. If Murphy wasn't going to move to re-open with cases declining for months, it's because he's not going to re-open until a vaccine or an election.

He has to show me it's not political, using NJ residents, and especially businesses (especially certain ones like the gym in Southern NJ) as pawns.
Otherwise, he speaks from both sides of his mouth a lot IMO.

[cstu7011]

UPDATE on 31 NJ teens that tested positive:

All are still in quarantine. One teen had a low grade fever for about 24 hours. So far none of the others have developed symptoms.

Family members of the teens have all tested negative, and plan on having one more test.

Resources have been made available to families in quarantine as needed.

[Retriever]

... and how it is calculated:

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/...alculated.html

[JG183]

Originally Posted by Retriever

... and how it is calculated:

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/...alculated.html

Alot of potential for errors, eh ?

[HudsonCoNJ]

Originally Posted by Retriever

... and how it is calculated:

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/...alculated.html

I only skimmed through the explanation of the calculation but it made my brain hurt so I stopped.

[Retriever]

Originally Posted by JG183

Alot of potential for errors, eh ?

[swilliamsny]

Originally Posted by HudsonCoNJ

I only skimmed through the explanation of the calculation but it made my brain hurt so I stopped.

I’m a numbers person, so any time I see ‘estimation’ it makes my brain hurt.

In April we had 7,000 daily tests on average, and now we have over 20,000 being performed, so you’re going to catch a lot more of the overall cases. The rate of transmission was 1.02, but because so few people were being tested, we really had no idea how many additional people each positive person was infecting. You would have to test everyone, practically every day to have an accurate number.

This doesn’t mean that NJ is in worse shape. Look at the positivity rate. In April, 44% of the people testing were positive. (Average. It was as high as 64%.) Now we have 1.3% testing positive. Just because we’re finding more of the cases in the general population, that doesn’t mean they’re all going to get very sick and need hospitalization. It also doesn’t mean that they’re suddenly going to infect five people instead of one or two, it just means that we’re more likely to catch a few more of the people that do get infected.

Comparing July/August to April is dumb.

As a result, the state’s 7-day positivity rate has seen a free fall from a high of 64% in mid-April — when only the sickest patients were receiving tests — to much of the month of June, which saw positive rates settle in between 1% and 2%.

Positivity rate is still 1.3%. Virtually no change since June, despite “opening” things.