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Just this morning retail stores are reporting grim sales.
But they blame it on rain and Easter being 2 weeks early....not the economy or inflation hurting our wallets.
Weak retail sales may spur more warnings - Yahoo! News (broken link)
You made no differentiation between the official figures you claimed to be referring to and your local area
No, I didn't. Again, it was what I had in mind. But I repeat, if you look at real prices rents have actually gone down.
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but statistics are easy to manipulate
Statistics are only easy to manipulate in so much as the general public is easy to manipulate. I'm sure I can get the general public to think all sorts of silly things about differential equations too. Statistics is just mathematics, there is nothing to manipulate. The problem is the general public doesn't understand mathematics well. Also, people love to make causal claims from statistical data but that has nothing to do with the mathematics beyond statistics.
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When real people say the dog biscuits I bought last month for my dog at $1.18/box are now $1.87, this is a solid piece of information.
Its a solid piece of information, but that is all it is some piece of data. It says nothing about inflation or anything at all. Products go up and down in price all the time. The only way to measure inflation is with a broad index. Also the anecdotal stories are all over the place, in mine there is little inflation in food. My food budget hasn't changed much at all.
Its a solid piece of information, but that is all it is some piece of data. It says nothing about inflation or anything at all. Products go up and down in price all the time. The only way to measure inflation is with a broad index. Also the anecdotal stories are all over the place, in mine there is little inflation in food. My food budget hasn't changed much at all.
If your food budget hasn't changed, then you are a statistical anomaly. A lucky person, but while the anecdotal evidence is scattered, the overwhelming trend is that prices are rising. And to suggest that statistics cannot be manipulated is either unbelievably naive or just plain stubborn. The numbers aren't just mathematics when some data is deliberately left out, some data is weighted. They've become complex equations just like differential equations with infinity and imaginary numbers thrown in. And when the media reports this data, they often do not report how the statistic is figured, or what the statistic really measures. If you leave out food and gas to measure inflation, you aren't really measuring inflation for the average American consumer. If you've changed what's included in 2007's figures from what was included in 1997's figures, then any comparison between the two figures becomes questionable. And that's just one aspect of how statistics can be manipulated. How the information is collected, are they gathering data primarily from urban areas, how statistically uniform are the polling figures, how representative are these numbers, how big is the data pool? These are just some of the questions that are used to determine the reliability of statistics. All too often statistical evidence is no more than a snapshot, which I think is probably equal in validity to anecdotal evidence that can be documented.
If your food budget hasn't changed, then you are a statistical anomaly. A lucky person
Luck has nothing to do with it. Rather its that 1.) Food hasn't gone up that much and 2.) I reduced my consumption of foods that are currently expensive (Primarily dairy). Hell, I haven't made ice cream in months! Heavy cream costs a bit too much right now.
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...the overwhelming trend is that prices are rising.
The only way you'd know this is with..oh wait! Statistics. Then its no longer anecdots.
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These are just some of the questions that are used to determine the reliability of statistics.
Of course you need to do the studies correctly, but that is no different than any other science. Statistics isn't any different than any other science. And my point was simply that there is standard methodologies that can be used to achieve good results, when one violations some condition, rule etc its usually rather easy for people trained in the field to spot the error. In that sense statistics are hard to manipulate, just like biology, physics etc is hard to manipulate.
Perhaps as some Americans eat healthier they see a greater increase in price. Grains are what are really going up along with fresh vegetables and fruit which are transported etc. Perhaps the consumer price index is weighted differently then what the average American eats today. Is junk food going up in price as quickly?
Luck has nothing to do with it. Rather its that 1.) Food hasn't gone up that much and 2.) I reduced my consumption of foods that are currently expensive (Primarily dairy). Hell, I haven't made ice cream in months! Heavy cream costs a bit too much right now.
Seems like you are contradicting your arguments. The fact that you change your habits ie., reduce consumption of expensive foods, show that you were aware that they were more expensive. Your food budget comparison is only fair if you were comparing the price of the same items, brands and weight bought. Keep in mind that many manufacturers are reducing the net weight of the products to keep the prices the same, which is actually inflation in disguise.
Not all people change their habits to consume lower-priced and lower quality foods as the BLS suggests by applying product substitution against products that cost more. Most people will tend to move up as they get older and get better-paying positions in their field. The BLS strategies seem to be aimed solely at mitigating the effects of real world inflation on their measurements.
Seems like you are contradicting your arguments. The fact that you change your habits ie., reduce consumption of expensive foods, show that you were aware that they were more expensive. Your food budget comparison is only fair if you were comparing the price of the same items, brands and weight bought. Keep in mind that many manufacturers are reducing the net weight of the products to keep the prices the same, which is actually inflation in disguise.
I was just about to post that same observation. If you have changed your spending habits to stay in your budget doesn't it mean that food prices have risen enough for you to notice and make those changes ?
I think most of us are smart enough that we can notice when we go grocery shopping and spend X amount of dollars that now that same X amount of dollars is not enough when purchasing the same foods.
It seems everytime I go out, I have neighbors or strangers in the stores mentioning this.
Also, statistics are just that......they don't put money in my pockets, besides I don't need statistics to tell me if I should have more or less money. I can only go by what I have.
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Maybe our diets have changed
