AZ / Maricopa Covid-19 tracker (place, hospitals, worth)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Tall Traveler

The article you linked supported my contention that warmer weather and UV sunshine will lower the infection rate of the virus and I agree. The world agrees when you look at the infection rates in countries where it was hot and sunny when the virus hit.

Clearly, that's not what the article said. Maybe you didn't read the very 1st sentence: "There’s only one type of UV that can reliably inactivate Covid-19 – and it’s extremely dangerous.“You would literally be frying people,” says Dan Arnold, laughing in disbelief.

Big picture: there are some hopeful history to think that the Coronavirus might be seasonal. One study has shown that the oily fat around the crown in COVID 19 can live dramatically longer on cold surfaces like the freezer versus when it is warm out. So that's not up for debate. The only debatable question is how much and when will that matter more. As a reminder, the Harvard MD/PHD who studies this topic 24-7 suggests that pandemics often don’t behave in the same way as seasonal outbreaks. Meaning, COVID has to become an epidemic versus a pandemic. Because seasonality is so far down the list of influences. After all, a fraction of the human beings in the world have been exposed to the virus. Therefore, many people have concluded that there is no supporting data other than people fitting a model to their own theory.

It's quickly learned by a single google that seasonality viruses come in all shapes and sizes. Like the Spanish flu, which peaked during the summer months. But in 2020, that's not even as relevant. Because "seasonal changes" is harder to detect because of our shift in our travel behavior. Like snowbirds and people coming in by the millions to visit AZ for tourism (Spring training etc). Just look at Miami right now with their record heat. The virus is flaring up probably because it's NYer's 2nd homes plus it is an international destination. And if I want to "prove" pretty much any point, I can conger up some data to fit anything I want. Considering the theories are changing by the week, it should be clear people are taking (not very) educated guesses along the way.

My point is one fold: you are floating your idea as it is a fact. 1/2 of the studies are saying they see a seasonal variation and the other 1/2 say it's not the case. I propose there are a lot of biased people on the "heat kills COVID" camp. Or that people are lousy at extrapolating correlations or it's too confusing because it's a pandemic. I said initially, the data in its current form is as clear as mud.

As a side note, here is the advice that was presented to the President on seasonality. But something tells me he is going to think he is smarter on the topic than the scientists : https://www.nap.edu/read/25771/chapter/1#2

[belgirl]

At the end of the day, if we keep seeing small numbers of new Coronavirus cases in AZ per day (104 new cases today), the government is going to have a really hard time convincing people that everything needs to stay closed. People can keep saying "Well we need to see more testing to see the numbers go up" but that ain't happening and I doubt will happen.

[AndroidAZ]

Originally Posted by belgirl

At the end of the day, if we keep seeing small numbers of new Coronavirus cases in AZ per day (104 new cases today), the government is going to have a really hard time convincing people that everything needs to stay closed. People can keep saying "Well we need to see more testing to see the numbers go up" but that ain't happening and I doubt will happen.

It would be interesting to see if we can keep the numbers low. Unfortunately, the only way we will know if we made the wrong decision to reopen is to see cases spike. Unfortunately, that might be the only path some might accept.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

It would be interesting to see if we can keep the numbers low. Unfortunately, the only way we will know if we made the wrong decision to reopen is to see cases spike. Unfortunately, that might be the only path some might accept.

I don't think there is any other choice. On March 30th they were saying that at least 70,000 people in AZ were probably infected and we didn't know it. I would really like to see these antibody tests cranked out so we can see if this number is even close, or if it was just a bunch of "could be BS."

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

It would be interesting to see if we can keep the numbers low. Unfortunately, the only way we will know if we made the wrong decision to reopen is to see cases spike. Unfortunately, that might be the only path some might accept.

By the way, great data! It is a risk to reopen the economy given the virus is still active across the nation but you have pockets where it's not especially bad and I would include Phoenix as one of those spots but there are areas with significantly lower infections than Phoenix as well.

If this virus is seasonal, then when we reopen the economy, you won't see another outbreak until late Fall so it might be a good idea to shut down again for the winter or at least put all mitigation efforts in place to deal with it again.

If the virus is not seasonal, then our choices are either hunker down in our homes for 18 months until a vaccine is possibly proven to work or return to life with those who are most at risk hunker down and we try to flatten the curve so our health systems aren't overwhelmed.

If, as some claim, the virus spread is not impacted by heat and UV radiation in considering that New York has around 28 times more deaths per capita than Arizona, then you would expect to see a major spike in Arizona and around the country if we reopen the economy back up.

[Ponderosa]

There is more to suggest that seasonality/warm weather/UV is just wishful thinking. Cases in Saudi Arabia doubled over the past week and are growing at greater than 10% per day. Mecca has been hit badly and authorities are clamping down. Mecca temps are about the same as Phoenix right now. Then again, one could make the argument that it would be much worse if the weather were colder.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

There is more to suggest that seasonality/warm weather/UV is just wishful thinking. Cases in Saudi Arabia doubled over the past week and are growing at greater than 10% per day. Mecca has been hit badly and authorities are clamping down. Mecca temps are about the same as Phoenix right now. Then again, one could make the argument that it would be much worse if the weather were colder.

Still, their deaths per capita in Saudi is 2 per millions versus almost 400 in Spain, Italy, Belgium and over 500 in New York. Considering how many Chinese workers there, it's amazing how little infections they have had. Until they have a type of breakout like Italy, Spain, New York, etc. in the heat, we are still seeing every nation with similar climate to Phoenix with a very low infection rate compared to cooler climates.

[AndroidAZ]

Data is updated for today. It's been about a month since I started sheltering in place with the family (schools started shutting down). Looking back a month it's very interesting.

The number of confirmed cases was 18 in AZ on March 16. A month later today, the number of confirmed cases is 4,234. The exponential increase in confirmed cases is pretty amazing. In another month, if we extrapolate forward at the same rate (about 19.2% over the last 31 days), we'd have about 980,200 cases. Nearly a million confirmed cases in AZ!!

Pretty crazy to try to understand the numbers. Hopefully social distancing continues lowering the growth rate and we really keep the numbers low.

[DetroitN8V]

Not great news, but thank you for providing. It easily disproves those that suggest that we're over the peak.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

Data is updated for today. It's been about a month since I started sheltering in place with the family (schools started shutting down). Looking back a month it's very interesting.

The number of confirmed cases was 18 in AZ on March 16. A month later today, the number of confirmed cases is 4,234. The exponential increase in confirmed cases is pretty amazing. In another month, if we extrapolate forward at the same rate (about 19.2% over the last 31 days), we'd have about 980,200 cases. Nearly a million confirmed cases in AZ!!

Pretty crazy to try to understand the numbers. Hopefully social distancing continues lowering the growth rate and we really keep the numbers low.

The % increase in new deaths vs total deaths (cell J38) is the number I would hope stays in check (and of course hopefully drops). Will be interesting to see if Easter causes a spike.

To get to a million cases every single person in the state would have to be tested. Don't think that'll happen.