AZ / Maricopa Covid-19 tracker (casinos, living in, vs.)

[asufan]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

Not great news, but thank you for providing. It easily disproves those that suggest that we're over the peak.

I don't think it proves one thing or the other. With the randomness in the flow of test results, if we get 900 results one day, 3,500 the next, 1,200 the next, then 2,000 and so on, it's hard to really form an opinion. Maybe in a week or two there will be more tests or maybe the ability to compare entire weeks of tests to see if we're increasing or hit a plateau.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by asufan

I don't think it proves one thing or the other. With the randomness in the flow of test results, if we get 900 results one day, 3,500 the next, 1,200 the next, then 2,000 and so on, it's hard to really form an opinion. Maybe in a week or two there will be more tests or maybe the ability to compare entire weeks of tests to see if we're increasing or hit a plateau.

That’s true. I guess we have to assume that results are trickling in at about the same daily rate. If so, we’re clearly still on the uptick. Perhaps that’s faulty logic though as you’ve pointed out.

[belgirl]

Supposedly, results are 8 days behind...So the numbers we are seeing are from 8 days ago..

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

That’s true. I guess we have to assume that results are trickling in at about the same daily rate. If so, we’re clearly still on the uptick. Perhaps that’s faulty logic though as you’ve pointed out.

I wouldn't use tests as the metric at all. It's almost impossible to get tested. Plus, you depend on labs submitting results to the state and there is no metric to do that. One lab could submit 2 weeks worth of results on one day.

Sadly deaths are a better metric, at least in Arizona. Hospitals report deaths daily.

[AndroidAZ]

Interesting trend on testing and mortality. Positive tests as a % of entire tests are creeping up from 6-7% to over 9%. Mortality has increased from 2% range to high 3% range. Not sure what that indicates..perhaps more sick people are getting tested and identified?

Growth rate is still relatively low but we need a lot more tests.

A lot more tests, anti-body tests, and N95 masks / PPE would help us really get ahead of this thing and reopen safely.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by AndroidAZ

Interesting trend on testing and mortality. Positive tests as a % of entire tests are creeping up from 6-7% to over 9%. Mortality has increased from 2% range to high 3% range. Not sure what that indicates..perhaps more sick people are getting tested and identified?

Growth rate is still relatively low but we need a lot more tests.

A lot more tests, anti-body tests, and N95 masks / PPE would help us really get ahead of this thing and reopen safely.

Don't hold your breath on tests, PPE, or N95s for the vulnerable. This has been botched from the get go and there are no signs that it is improving. We will open soon, but it won't be "safely".

[Ponderosa]

We just had our worst day yet for deaths in Arizona after what looked like a good trend down. It was three times what the model predictions were. Hospitalizations also jumped in Maricopa County so there is more to come. Things may have flattened (questionable), but it's not going down much.

[AndroidAZ]

It took a while to get the data to load on AZDHS site, but I noticed their Total % positive number is wrong - they have 8% listed, but I calculate 9.52%.

[AndroidAZ]

Nearly end of month and interesting to see what a full month of sheltering in place has done.

Confirmed cases increased from 1400 to 7000+, increased 5 fold, while testing increased from 30k to 70k, only doubling during this time. # of deaths increased from 32 to 300+, a 10 fold increase.

It will be interesting to see how this trends once state reopens and how fast the cases exponentially increase.

[thinkalot]

64 deaths in 2 days but only 14 in Maricopa County.